Will Roy Oswalt deserve consideration for the Hall of Fame? (with projections of his career.)

Short Answer. No.

Long answer…

One he is right now almost 32… and in his own right, a very good pitcher, but almost definetly out of his prime. Since most pitchers can pitch effectively till around 36, until they begin to drop off, I will project until he is (almost )36 (4 more years…)

Currently he has around 40 WAR which is a way to determine pitchers value above a replacement player in terms of wins. For a career, it is neccesary to have around 62ish WAR to be a HOF level player (though some IE Jim Rice have done otherwise)

Note, these projections are based on conjecture and have little factual backing because I have a life and don’t feel like doing things like percents and all this complicated crap…

Projecting him onward, he expects to have around 1.9 or so more Win for a total of at most 3.4 for the year. Going with this projection, he’d have a total of 42 WAR for his career.

Since his prime in 2004, where he had 6.4 WAR, he has steadily declined in WAR value. the amount he decreased are .3, .4, 1.1, .9, and a projected .5… this is an average of .64 WAR declining per year. Going off of that average, Oswalt’s next 4 years would be at 2.8, 2.2, 1.5, and .9 WAR. That is a total of 7.4 additional WAR to his 42, making it 49ish WAR… Even if he kept his projected average of 3.4 WAR, he’d only be gaining 13.6 WAR meaning he’d be at a total of 55.6 or so after his 13th year, or when he was turning 36 (in late august). Again the potential remains for him to continue playing after that, but the probability he’d be able to stay at a good to great level is very low.

One of the last criteria for being a HOF eligible player IMO, is dominance. In his career (not including 2001), He ranked 5, 56th (didn’t pitch a full year),6,6,6,16,31, and 43 so far this year.

This shows Oswalt was a top 6 pitcher for all of his prime (except for his injured year), but he was never the top pitcher.

If he can somehow live up to the projection of making it to 55.6 WAR by the end of his 13th season, he would have a shot to make it to a HOF eligible player if he could continue to pitch at a semi high level, but to continue to pitch at a 3.4 WAR level is very unlikely

Not to say he isn’t a great player, but he will deserve to go into the hall of stars (something just below HOF level)

sources baseballprojection.com

fangraphs.com

personal conjecture

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4 Comments on “Will Roy Oswalt deserve consideration for the Hall of Fame? (with projections of his career.)”

  1. discofever14 Says:

    First post!

  2. trecker987 Says:

    personal conjecture

    haha


  3. Baseballbriefs.com tracking back Will Roy Oswalt deserve consideration for the Hall of Fame? (with projections of his career.)…

    Baseballbriefs.com tracking back Will Roy Oswalt deserve consideration for the Hall of Fame? (with projections of his career.)…


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