Holliday to Saint Louis…ugh

I am a huge Cardinals fan. I received news of our acquisition of Matt Holliday via ESPN texting me earlier today while I was with a few of my fellow Cardinals fans friends. I alerted them of the news, and, predictably, everyone was very excited. Most of them only vaguely knew of Brett Wallace, and all they cared about was getting an MVP caliber player to “protect” Pujols. At this time I was very upset with the trade. We just traded away a future Joey Votto type contributor for 1/2 a season of a 4-5 win player. I also knew that this trade made us immediately better. Rick Ankiel is not a starting outfielder. He has been dreadful this year, and despite a home run last the Cardinals could not have relied on him to be a middle of the order contributor. Yes his BABIP is low (accompanied by a low LD% as well), and yes ZiPS projects a .333 wOBA for the rest of the year, but this still someone who cannot be relied on.

So, let’s do some simple math to see what exactly the Cardinals are getting. Holliday is projected to post a .370 wOBA over 276 PAs. That is roughly 9.36 runs above a replacement level LF (.039/1.15*276). Add on the 3.5 runs he is on pace to save with the glove, and Holliday should be worth around 1.3 wins as a Cardinal. Assuming last year’s average wOBA of .331, we find Ankiel will be worth 3.27 runs above replacement with the bat (.02/1.15*188). His defense is hard to quantify, but I think it is safe to assume he is slightly worse than Holliday in the field. So we are talking about essentially giving up a huge piece of the Cardinals future in Brett Wallace for less than half a year of Matt Holliday. This is a terrible trade…

Unless the Cardinals win the World Series or this trade shows the best player in the game that the Cardinals are committed to winning, which in turn will help them sign Pujols long term when his contract expires. Until then though, epic fail for John Mozeliakak.

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One Comment on “Holliday to Saint Louis…ugh”

  1. Disco Says:

    Billy Beane

    Essentially, he turns Huston Street, Greg Smith, and Carlos Gonzalez into about 3 wins of Holliday, Chris Wallace, Mortenson, and Shane Peterson. Not bad.

    Gonzalez is tearing it up in AAA this year, but Wallace and Peterson both seem to have bright futures.


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