How Pitching Lines can decieve

Note for all of my fans (everybody can laugh now 🙂 This won’t be going up on statspeak.net because I feel it is kind of unrefined and not statspeak material.

Most of the time when we want to see how a pitcher did in a game, we look at there pitching line…

Take this one for example from tonight’s Orioles game

Pitchers IP H R ER BB SO HR PC-ST ERA
B Matusz 5.1 7 4 4 0 7 1 91-60

(Taken from http://espn.go.com/mlb/boxscore?gameId=290820130)
From this you would probably think 7 hits and 4 ER off of a HR… not a great outing. You might also notice the 7 strikeouts, but you’d probably  glance over it seeing the 4   ER…

BUT if you look more closely at the game, he was very very good outside of two innings. In the first he let up a single and two doubles. and in the 6th he let up a single, a double, and a home run… throughout the inning though it looked like he was excerting more effort to pitch…


If you take out those two innings, his line goes to 4 innings, 1 hit, 5 K’s, 0 walks, 0 HRs…

If you look at that from a FIP perspective, it goes from a

(HR*13+(BB+HBP-IBB)*3-K*2)/IP (Formula for FIP from fangraphs website)

(13+0-14)/5.33   -1/5.33-    So a -.19 FIP on a game where it would look like he wasn’t good… so actually according to fangraphs WAR, he had a good outing.

But if you go to my modified  pitching line,


(0+0-10)/4   -10/4   -2.50 FIP, whcih is simply amazing even considering it was 4 innings

But the home run did happen, along with the 1st inning, but Matusz still had a solid game according to things he could control. Though some people do like other metrics outside of FIP, this was a good way to show how sometimes the pitching line is very decieving

AND for Orioles fans, he did look very very good outside of those two innings, from what I saw (2 innings) he was dominating the Rays lineup.


(NOTE- anything that you see in such a small sample size (4 innings, or looking at the whole game 5.33 innings is much to small of a sample size to draw any conclusions from)

Sources-  http://espn.go.com/mlb/boxscore?gameId=290820130

NOTE this isn’t the total formula for FIP and is missing one portion that is a league specific factor.

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