My attempt of an NBA post

And this attempt comes in the form of finding out what type of teams are best suited to win. Can an all offense or all defense team be a top team? Can a balanced be a top team? Or must a top team be great at both offense and defense?

To do this, I looked at the ORtg and DRtg of teams from the 2009 season. ORtg is the points a team scored per 100 posessions and DRtg is the points a team allowed per 100 posessions.

The R2 for ORtg to W% is .6467. That is shows that most great teams have a solid offense, but it isn’t a sign of a great correlation. Next up is DRtg.

The R2 here is .7244. So there is a good relationship between a solid defense and wins.

The last thing I did was subtract DRtg from a teams ORtg. Here is the result:

An R2 of .9793. That is amazing.

Essentially, the top tier NBA teams are those with excellent offense and defense. If you are an all defense or an all offense team, you don’t stand a good chance to be a great team. The same goes for those teams that are solid at both offense and defense, but not great (kind of like NO).

Thus, it is no surprise the top four teams last season were the leaders in ORtg-DRtg: CLE, BOS, LAA, ORL. Meanwhile, the best offensive team was Portland while the best defensive team was BOS.

The next step is collecting more data beyond the 2008-2009 season, as well as looking at the ORtg-DRtg leaders and seeing how they fared in the NBA playoffs.

Explore posts in the same categories: All Posts, Other sports


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