When WPA doesn’t work

Via fangraphs:

Though Jimmy Rollins was oh-for-the-series, and ‘failed’ once again in a key position (one down, tying runs on base in the 7th inning, the third-highest leverage index moment of the game), his soft flyball to Jay Bruce (a +18.9 Right Fielder this year according to UZR) was muffed about a billion times, and suddenly Rollins looks like a hero to Oswalt’s zero. Seriously, Bruce missed a play he should have had 95+ times out of a 100 (or, rather, 256 in 259 times), then screwed up the throw, the relay was punted, and Rollins stands on second with the crowd roaring. Rollins gets a .352 WPA for the play, Oswalt a -.152 for his five innings, three run effort. Sometimes WPA doesn’t tell the whole story.

I didn’t even think about that during the play. WPA is a nice little story stat, but it too isn’t perfect.

No real reason for this post, just pointing out interesting stuff.


EDIT: I took this down. I’m a chicken. I apologize. It’s back up. My reputation is down. Oh well. At least Rutgers offense finally showed up this week.


Explore posts in the same categories: All Posts, Baseball general

Tags: , , , ,

You can comment below, or link to this permanent URL from your own site.

One Comment on “When WPA doesn’t work”

  1. Doug Bies Says:

    Interesting…I don’t really pay all that much attention to WPA, but it’s nice to have a reality check & see a flaw like this pointed out.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google photo

You are commenting using your Google account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: