Jose Bautista is staying in Toronto

And it’s a 5/$65mil deal. Color me unimpressed.

At fangraphs, they have come up with the following expectation:

2011 – +3.4 WAR, $5 million per win, $17.5 million value
2012 – +2.9 WAR, $5.25M $/win, $15.23 million value
2013 – +2.4 WAR, $5.51M $/win, $13.23 million value
2014 – +1.9 WAR, $5.69M $/win, $11.00 million value
2015 – +1.4 WAR, $6.08M $/win, $8.51 million value

Total: +12 WAR, $64.96 million value


Yeah, Bautista might be *worth* 65mil, but I still think it’s a bad idea for Toronto. If he is only an average player over the contract, which is what he would be to be worth the money, than why go long term with him? Especially since they will need to pay a lot of their young players soon with playoff runs being a real possibility in the next couple seasons. That 65mil could go a long way towards keeping Morrow, Hill, Drabek, Snider, etc, etc.

Moreover, Bautista was likely to make between $8-$10mil through arbitration this season, which is less than the $13mil he will now be paid. If Bautista regresses, which is likely to happen since he never posted an average WAR season until 2010, than if they wanted to sign him to a multi-year deal, they probably could have done for less than $13mil a season. And if they wanted to go multi-year now, why go five years, with an option for a sixth? Just go 2-4 years, max.

Toronto has been making some great moves over the past year and they have set themselves up nicely to be a major AL East contender in the near future, but this deal goes against their recent M.O.

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