Chad Billingsley extension

This will be a quickie as I have an exam in a tiny bit.

The other day Chad Billingsley signed a 3/$35mil deal with a $14mil option for 2015. Those three guaranteed seasons will be his age 27-29 seasons, and include his last year of arbitration and two years of free agency.

In 2012, Billingsley will earn $9mil. Using the 40/60/80 rule based on his salary for 2011, Billingsley would have made around $11-$12mil in 2012 through arbitration. So that’s a savings of a couple mil already for Los Angeles. Moreover, Billingsley has been quite good the past three full seasons. His fWAR have been 4.4, 3.2, and 4.6 with FIPs under 4 in all three seasons.

His fan projected WAR for 2011 is 4.9. So lets go forward and project a 5 WAR in 2012, 5.5 WAR in 2013, and 5 WAR in 2014. With a $ per WAR of 5, 5.25, and 5.5 in those seasons, that would bring his expected value to $25mil, $28.875mil, and $27.5mil. In those seasons he will be paid $9mil, $11mil, and $12mil. So that’s an expected value of $81.375mil compared to an actual salary of $35mil. WOWOWOWOWOWOWOWOWOWOWOWOOWWOW. Talk about savings. Even if Billingsley “only” posts a 4 WAR each season, his expected value would still be $63mil, $25mil more than what he would earn in reality.

Off my head, I think this is the most team friendly deal signed in some time. I mean, I think the Dodgers are paying less than half of Billingsley’s actual worth! Normally I’d still say it’s a good deal for the player since they are getting financial and long term security, but in this case, I think Billingsley is a fool. Yeah, maybe he wants to stay in LA, but he could have easily gotten more than $50mil.

I mean, Billingsley is GOOD. Despite playing in LA, I don’t think a lot of people realize it. Especially in the MSM since he has only posted 12 wins in three of the past four seasons. But his career FIP, K/9, BB/9, HR/9, and WAR is: 3.68, 8.19, 3.89, 0.66, 14.8. Kershaw is the pitcher hyped up in LA, and for good reason, but Billingsley needs to get his respect. He is a strikeout master, who doesn’t give up HR. He also gets his fair share of ground balls. He isn’t the best at avoiding walks, but he isn’t a walk machine and makes up for it by throwing a high volume of K’s and getting ground balls. As a result he does a good job limiting runs- which is the point of his job. He is also just 26, about to turn 27 this season. The man is a star and should get his dues soon.



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5 Comments on “Chad Billingsley extension”

  1. twinsfan Says:

    Nice write up. I’m a big fan of this blog, you do nice work. I am also interested in sabermetrics so I have a quick question. How do you determine potential value and WAR? do you just make an educated guess?

    • Disco Says:

      I make an educated guess of WAR. I don’t have a program or anything like other have or the time others have to regress WARs and forecast, etc, etc. I do my best with aging effects, age, peak years, etc, etc, etc. The $ per WAR goes by .25mil to .5mil per year as you go further into the future.

  2. jeterian2ny Says:

    There’s a formula.

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