Archive for July 2011

Mike Adams traded to Texas

July 31, 2011

The Rangers get Mike Adams, the Padres get Joe Wieland and Robbie Erlin.

I like this trade for both sides, but especially for San Diego. Yeah, Mike Adams is a beast. Insane numbers. But ultimately, he is just a RP and a RP on a losing no less. In return, they get Wieland was a top Rangers prospect, and someone who has been dominating the minors. Robbie Erlin is another young pitcher who has been good so far. I mean, neither may be future aces, but both, especially Wieland, look to have promising careers. So to get them for a relief pitcher who wasn’t the difference between winning and losing on your team is a nice pick up. As for the Rangers, you want to criticize them for overvaluing a RP, but in these circumstances its okay. They are in a pennant race and Adams is more valuable to them than a pair of 21 year old prospects who are still little bit aways from the majors.

 

D-Backs trade for Brad Ziegler

July 31, 2011

In order to get Ziegler, the D-Backs had to trade Brandon Allen and Jordan Norberto. I gotta say, I like this deal for Oakland.

Ziegler is an okay relief pitcher. He is 32 years old and nothing special. Will he help Arizona more than Allen down the stretch? Maybe. But overall, I love Oakland a lot more in this trade.

Brandon Allen is 25 already and no longer a prospect, but the man can hit. He has never really been given a true chance to succeed, and maybe that’s because his teams know something about him that we don’t know. But he has legit power with insane walk rates. In 2010 between AAA and Arizona, his BB% was over 17%.  The same goes for this year as well. Norberto is just a filler.

So yeah, maybe Allen really isn’t anything special. But I will take the everyday position player with potential over the average reliever.

Rafael Furcals to St. Louis

July 31, 2011

In a small move, the Cardinals traded Alex Castellanos for Rafael Furcal.

Castellanos is an okay hitter. His AA line this year is .319/.379/.562/.408. But he’s also 24, about to turn 25, making him old for the league. He’s never had a good walk rate, and his K rates are extremely high. I have a tough time believing he’ll amount to anything in the majors, if even given the chance.

Furcal on the other hand, looks cooked. He had a 4+ fWAR in 2010, but he has been abysmal so far in 2011. So the Dodgers should be glad to get rid of him and the $4mil left on his contract, which for that organization, is a big amount of money right now. The Cardinals are hoping Furcal turns it around, and if not, Castellanos isn’t someone to fret about losing in a trade.

 

Ubaldo Jiminez an Indian?

July 31, 2011

As of now nothing is official, but apparently Cleveland will be trading Alex White, Drew Pomeranz, Matt McBride, and a potential fourth player to the Rockies for Ubaldo Jiminez. Wow. I don’t know about you, but I find it surprising that Cleveland might land Ubaldo.

Ubaldo Jiminez is a really good, young, and cost-controlled player. From now through 2014, he will be paid $18.88mil. He is 27 and is under contract through his age 30 season. I have him producing about 1.5 WAR the rest of the season, Being conservative, I have him at 15 WAR total through 2014 (1.5, 5, 4.5, 4). So I have him producing $74mil over the next 3.2 seasons. As said, he’ll be paid $18.88mil, so he has a value surplus of about $55mil.

So, lets look at the prospects Cleveland will have to give up to get that value and ace pitcher. Alex White was pre-season top 50 prospect who was called up this season before landing on the disabled list. Since he is a top 25 pitching prospect, he is worth $15.9mil. Drew Pomeranz was a top 70 prospect, but surely has moved up this season. In A+ he has been lights out, making 15 starts with a 11.10 K/9, 3.74 BB/9, and 2.36 FIP. I’d also call him a top 25 pitching prospect valued at $15.9mil. Matt McBride has good minor league numbers, but he is 26 and long past prospect status. As a C hitter that is older than 23, he brings just 500k in value. So, the Rockies will be receiving $32.3mil in return for Jiminez. Color me unimpressed.

Seriously, what a shit deal for Colorado. First off, I still don’t know why they are trading Jiminez. I don’t believe they have money issues, but even if they do, Jiminez is super cheap. I don’t think any other star pitcher is paid as little as he is. I mean, club options for $8mil? That is a STEAL. Besides, I don’t even think Colorado needs prospects or to rebuild. They have Tulowitzki and CarGo and Chacin. But okay, they trade. At least get a better haul. Yeah, White and Pomeranz are good. But you need more than that.

Good for Colorado though. Hopefully their fans start showing now. The AL Central should be a fun race this year.

UPDATE:

Pitcher Joe Gardner is the fourth prospect. He is 23 and struggling in AA. Pre-season he was rated the Indians ninth best prospect. I consider him a C level prospect, but to help Colorado, lets call him a B level prospect. That’s $7.3mil. Add that to the $32.3mil total and you get about $40mil. Still well short of the value Jiminez alone should bring you.

Yet “experts” like Jon Heyman are calling it a good deal because they got four players. Seriously? Quantity =/ quality.

Tigers get Doug Fister, David Pauley

July 30, 2011

In return for the pair of pitchers, Detroit will send Casper Wells, Francisco Martinez, and Charlie Furbush.

Doug Fister is 27, with four more years of team control. Pauley is an okay relief pitcher. For the next 4.2 years of Fister, I figure he’ll produce about 15 WAR. That should be worth about $76.5mil. However, next year he will probably sign a deal worth about 450K and from there should make about $3mil, $4.8mil, and $8.6mil in arbitration. That’s a total of $16.9mil, meaning he alone is a value surplus of $59.6mil. However, my WAR estimates could be way too radical. In his first full season, Fister posted a 2.9 fWAR and he figures to post a 4.0+ fWAR in 2011. Using that, I predicted a 3 WAR in 2012, 3.5 WAR in 2013, 4.0 WAR in 2014, and 3.5 WAR in 2015. That seems legitimate,  but I wouldn’t be surprised to see him post much lower totals. Leaving Safeco will hurt, but he will be going to another pitchers park in Comerica.

Now, neither Martinez, Wells, or Furbush were top ten prospects in the Tigers organization. Fursbush looks like he could be a mediocre arm either as a backend starter or reliever and Wells is an older prospect who can hit, but doesn’t have a high ceiling. Martinez is a young prospect, but one who doesn’t look like he can hit and a like and is just a filler.

I could get into the values of the prospects, but all I know is that it’s not close to Fister’s value. I think this is a steal for Detroit, who really needs a SP and they got him without giving up a big name prospect who they could still use to acquire Ubaldo Jiminez or Hideki Kuroda. Meanwhile, I think the Mariners are big time losers. Wells can hit a little, but he’s not going to set the world on fire. I know Seattle needs prospects and offense, and pitching is strength, but they could have done much better with Fister. I mean, he’s a good, young, cheap pitcher. So even trading him in the first place is iffy, but to get such a bad return is a big question mark to me.

There might be prospects going to Seattle in the deal, but for now, it’s a bad trade for them. Big win for Detroit.

The best team in baseball just got better

July 30, 2011

Yesterday, the Philadelphia Phillies traded three prospects for Hunter Pence. Yeah, the Phillies just got Hunter Pence. Their team is no joke.

So, the Phillies will be getting Pence for two more arbitration years and of course the two months remaining in the season. They owe him $1.3mil this season, and Pence is projected to make $11mil next year and $15mil in 2012 (Using 40/60/80 I got $19mil, but I think its safe to say he would never be paid that much through arbitration. $15mil sounds a lot more reasonable). For the next 2.2 years, I am projecting Pence to accumulate 8 WAR which would be a value of $41mil. So with the Phillies paying him around $27mil while he is worth $41mil, they get a net value of $14mil. So did the Astros get that back in return?

Well, they got prospects Jon Singleton, Jarred Cosart, Josh Zeid, and a PTBNL. In February, BA named Singleton the #39 prospect in baseball and he has been a beast so far in the low minors. So considering his placement in their rankings, I’d say Singleton is a top 25 hitting prospect- which brings a value of $23.4mil. Cosart is also a top 80 prospect according to BA and a top 50 pitching prospect who has been performing well in the minors as well. So that is $15.9mil of value right there. Zeid is a tier-B prospect which is worth $7.3mil. So all in all, as of now the Astros will be getting  $46.6mil in value. Subtract the $14mil they are giving up and the Astros walk away with a value return of $32.6mil. That is outstanding.

That also surprises. I was dead against trading Hunter Pence. I know the Astros need to rebuild, especially regards to their farm system, and Pence is their best trade chip. BUT, he is young and he is good. Sometimes it’s better to keep those pieces and let them be apart of that future you want. But I can’t complain about what they got in return.

 

Carlos Beltran traded to San Francisco

July 28, 2011

More big news from yesterday was the trade of Carlos Beltran for Zach Wheeler. The Mets will also pay $4mil of the $6mil remaining on Beltran’s contract for 2011.

Beltran has already produced 4.0 fWAR this season, and going out on a limb, let’s say he produces another 2 WAR down the stretch. That will be $9mil in value- minus the $2mil the Giants will pay and he will give them $7mil in value. However, they traded their top pitching prospect and one of the games top prospects in Zach Wheeler. As a top 25 pitching prospect, Wheeler is worth $15.9mil. So in return for two months of Carlos Beltran, the Giants are parting with a top prospect who has more than double the value of Carlos Beltran.

This is a bad deal for the Giants. Yes, I understand the Giants will probably make the postseason and they need to add offense. Beltran is a good hitter and will help. So they should be, and are willing to give up some value to make another World Series run. But I feel like they gave up too much. I think the deal could  have been done without giving up your best pitching prospect. Moreover, because of the disparity in value, the Giants will need to win the World Series again to justify this deal.

Man, I can’t believe the Mets actually made a good move.