Archive for August 2011

The Diamondbacks trade makes no sense

August 24, 2011

Today the Diamondbacks dealt Kelly Johnson to Toronto for Aaron Hill and John McDonald. D-Backs GM, Kevin Towers, said the goal of the trade was to get better this season and upgrade on defense. In other words, the D-Backs are all in for winning the NL West.

This trade, however, does not accomplish that goal. Yes, Kelly Johnson has a sub-.300 OBP and has not been that good this season. But, he’s played solid defense and does have a 1.6, which is close to that of an average player. On the other hand, Hill has hit even worse, has been “only” just as good as Johnson with the glove, and his WAR is -0.5. Ouch. So the D-Backs traded an average player for a below average player according to performance, in order to get BETTER? Yeah, I don’t think so.

I mean, Hill did have a solid season in 2009, but that was 2009. He was bad last season, and has been worse this season. His glove is okay, but not good enough to be an upgrade. I really don’t get this trade for Arizona. Johnson was also a FA at the end of the year and would have netted them a draft pick. Hill, if his option isn’t picked up, will get a pick as well, but I can only imagine Arizona will pick it up. Then when his options expire, he’ll no longer be type B free agent.

Yeah, Arizona did upgrade at SS with McDonald, especially in terms of defense. But it’s a very small upgrade compared to the downgrade at second. This is just a lose-lose for Arizona- in the short run and long run.

 

 

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Pirates get amazing deal; lock up Jose Tabata long term

August 22, 2011

When I first heard this deal, I was in disbelief. Literally. The Pirates signed Jose Tabata to a 6/$14mil extension. So he’ll be a Pirate until 2017, when he’llĀ  be 29 years old. What a steal.

Why this is a good deal: he’ll paid $2.3mil per year. Yeah, that’s it. He’s no superstar, but he’ll be a 2-4 WAR player. An average 2 WAR player should make around $8mil- at the least. He’ll be paid 1/4 of that, or about the equivalent of a 0.5 WAR player. Plus, by only giving him $14mil guaranteed, the Pirates have money to lock up other youngsters and possibly sign a good FA or two.

Bucco fans should be pleased with this deal.

Jered Weaver locked up long term

August 22, 2011

The LA Angels signed Weaver to a 5/$85mil extension. That means he’ll be an Angel until 2016 and until he’s 33 years old. So let me say: this was a great deal.

Jered Weaver is a stud. That simple. Since his debut in 2006, his fWAR has gone up every season and this season should top out around 6+ fWAR. He’s had a BB/9 in the 2’s every season. In all his seasons of 30+ starts, all but one he has had a K/9 in the 7’s; the exception? 2010 when it was 9.35. These past two seasons Weaver has been a top of the league ace and is consistent and dependable as hell.

Weaver would have had one more year of arbitration before signing the extension. So in all likelihood he would have made around $13mil in my estimation. Then he would have been a FA. Here’s how I believe that would have played, and payed, out:

WAR: 6, 5.5, 5, 4.5

Value ($): 30mil, 28.9, 27.5, 23

Excessive? Yeah, but that’s what his market projects to be if he achieves those WAR numbers, which is a very realistic figure in my opinion. If $ per WAR goes up 250K a year starting at $5mil in 2013, that’s how much he’d be worth. So I have his projected value at $122.4mil. Since he’ll be paid $85mil, that’s a saving of $37.4mil- enough to lock up Mike Trout!

Would he have gotten that much as a FA? It’s tough to say. I’m inclined to say yes if GMs see him in the same class as a CC Sabathia or Johan Santana when they were in contract negotiations.

So basically, great deal. It’s a deal that’s similar to the extensions Verlander and Felix Hernandez signed, and Weaver is in their class, so all around it’s a good deal for player and team.

MLB looking to suspend A-Rod over poker games

August 3, 2011

And it’s bullshit.

I mean, it’s POKER. It shouldn’t even be illegal. Nonetheless though, it seems to be. So why in the hell is Selig picking his nose into this? Leave it to the authorities. I know he and others hate A-Rod, but it’s not fair to the Yankees, who are contending for a World Series, to suspend one of their most pivotal players.

I also find it funny A-Rod could be suspendedfor playing poker and gambling, while many players only get a small thing known as a DUI, and MLB doesn’t give a shit. Good to see in their eyes poker is more dangerous than driving drunk putting yourself and others at risk of death.