Jered Weaver locked up long term

The LA Angels signed Weaver to a 5/$85mil extension. That means he’ll be an Angel until 2016 and until he’s 33 years old. So let me say: this was a great deal.

Jered Weaver is a stud. That simple. Since his debut in 2006, his fWAR has gone up every season and this season should top out around 6+ fWAR. He’s had a BB/9 in the 2’s every season. In all his seasons of 30+ starts, all but one he has had a K/9 in the 7’s; the exception? 2010 when it was 9.35. These past two seasons Weaver has been a top of the league ace and is consistent and dependable as hell.

Weaver would have had one more year of arbitration before signing the extension. So in all likelihood he would have made around $13mil in my estimation. Then he would have been a FA. Here’s how I believe that would have played, and payed, out:

WAR: 6, 5.5, 5, 4.5

Value ($): 30mil, 28.9, 27.5, 23

Excessive? Yeah, but that’s what his market projects to be if he achieves those WAR numbers, which is a very realistic figure in my opinion. If $ per WAR goes up 250K a year starting at $5mil in 2013, that’s how much he’d be worth. So I have his projected value at $122.4mil. Since he’ll be paid $85mil, that’s a saving of $37.4mil- enough to lock up Mike Trout!

Would he have gotten that much as a FA? It’s tough to say. I’m inclined to say yes if GMs see him in the same class as a CC Sabathia or Johan Santana when they were in contract negotiations.

So basically, great deal. It’s a deal that’s similar to the extensions Verlander and Felix Hernandez signed, and Weaver is in their class, so all around it’s a good deal for player and team.

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