Posted tagged ‘Adam Dunn’

Busy day in Chicago; Cubs sign Carlos Pena and White Sox sign Paul Konerko

December 8, 2010

The North side and South side both signed first basemen last night. Carlos Pena is going to the Cubs at 1/$10mil and Konerko is re-upping with the White Sox at 3/$37.5mil.

Let’s start with the North side deal because there is almost nothing to talk about. They need a first baseman. Carlos Pena is a first baseman. They signed him. Pena will be 33 years old and with aging is just an above average first baseman. Nothing special. He had an unusually poor 2010, mainly because he hit a ton of grounders. 44.9% of his balls in play were ground balls, well above his career average of 36.9%. So while his insanely low BABIP of .227 suggests bad luck, he also just didn’t swing the bat as well. He still has power- his ISO was above .200 and his HR/FB was above his career norm. He still walks a fair amount. But he didn’t hit enough line drives and power fly balls. If he can get his swing back, he should improve upon his 2010 numbers, but not too drastically. So he should be about a 2 WAR and be worth around $10mil. So it’s a solid deal for the Cubs. They won’t contend in 2011 so you can debate whether it was worth it to spend $10mil on Pena, but it’s “only” $10mil and it’s only one year. The Cubs DO need someone to play the position, so they went out and got a short term fix that won’t constrain them down the road.

The South Side deal is more noteworthy. Konerko will be getting an average salary of $12.5mil per year. Color me unimpressed. Konerko will be 35 next season, 36 in 2012, and 37 in 2013. Yet he will be paid $12.5mil. This seems like an irresponsible waste of money to me. They just signed another 1b/DH type player in Adam Dunn just a few days ago. Konerko was not needed. This also hurts Dunn’s value if they make him DH or play OF, making that deal much more of an overpay as well. But that’s besides the point. Konerko is OLD. Yes, he had a 160 wRC+ last season. But that’s an anomaly. Check out his wRC+’s from 2007-2009: 114, 106, 119. Yeah. But his BABIP was well above his career norms despite a LD% that is in line with his career average. So we should expect less fortune in 2011, which means less times on base, less extra base hits, and less offensive production, which in turn means less value. Being generous, I can start him at 2.5 in 2011. By 2013 he will be a 1.5 WAR player. So I have him being worth $29.5mil over three years. OVERPAY.

So that’s it.

I also really want the Yankees to sign Russell Martin. He would be a good catcher to split time with Jesus Montero on the cheap. Best case scenario he finds himself offensively and returns to being a 4-5 WAR player. Also, signing him would open up the possibility of trading Jesus Montero for Zack Greinke, leaving Martin as the starter until Austin Romine is ready. 1/$4mil with a club option for 2012? Please think about it Cashman.

Chicago White sign Adam Dunn

December 2, 2010

In baseball’s big news of the day, the White Sox have signed slugger Adam Dunn to a 4/$56mil deal. Dunn will be paid $14mil per yer through his age 31-34 seasons.

Dunn is a fantastic hitter who has lost a lot of value over the years because of atrocious defense. But now it appears that Dunn has accepted the fact he is better suited at first base or DH, rather than the outfield. In the end, that could save him some value, although the DH penalty is still severe enough that he needs to hit no matter where he plays to have any significant value.

The contract will cover Dunn’s early 30s, which could have no impact or a negative impact. Players do get worse as they age, but age 31-34 isn’t so old anymore. He should still be able to mash the ball and the age won’t impact his defense if he is at DH or 1b. However, his body type usually does not age well. Again though, 31-34 isn’t that old anymore, so we might not see his decline just yet.

Dunn will be going into a homer haven, much like the one he played in during his Cincy years. That could possibly boost his numbers, at least at home. In the end though, analyzing Dunn is tricky. He has been a consistent, great hitter over the course of his career. He shows no sign of decline, except for age. But we do know that his body type does decline earlier than most and we don’t know how he will react if he becomes a hit only player in Chicago.

I started Dunn out at 3 WAR and decreased it by 0.5 each season as he gets older. In the end, using my estimates, the White Sox will overpay for Dunn by a total of $10mil, or $2.5mil per season. That’s a fair amount, but it’s not that bad. Moreover, it’s possible Dunn does continue to hit well and outperforms my predictions. I ran this with him producing total WAR’s of 10.5 and 11, each of which brought him closer to the $56mil salary he is being given. Moreover, Chicago has been dying for a power hitting lefty for sometime now. He is a great addition to the lineup, so he could be worth more than his projected $46mil value to Chicago. The White Sox figure to build teams that will contend each season, so Dunn should be worth more to them than to the Kansas City Royals, for example.

This may have been a slight reach for Chicago, but they get the player they want at a decent price and Dunn gets his money.

 

The trades continue: Edwin Jackson traded to Chicago White Sox

July 30, 2010

Edwin Jackson will be joining his fourth team in three years as the Arizona Diamondbacks traded him to the Chicago White Sox for prospects Dan Hudson and David Holmberg.

I am not a fan of this for Chicago, if this is the only move they make. Edwin Jackson is an above average pitcher. After struggling to live up to his talent and potential for years, he finally put things together last season in Detroit, where he had a 4.28 FIP, 4.39 xFIP, and 3.5 WAR, while throwing a career high 214 innings. And although his ERA has skyrocketed in the desert, Jackson has had an equally good year so far with an identical FIP and xFIP of 4.27.

But Jackson is not a special pitcher. He has an average K rate that’s been below seven K’s per nine for three consecutive years now, and his BB rate isn’t anything special. Moreover, he is prone to the long ball, which won’t fare well in Chicago. US Cellular Field has the highest HR park factor in baseball at 1.626, compared to Arizona’s Chase Field park factor of 1.121. In fact, one would have to go all the way back to 2002 to find the last time US Cellular wasn’t in the top four when it comes to HR park factor.

Down the stretch, his FIP is projected to be 4.16 which his current mark. I’d imagine he will produce one win of value for the Sox down the stretch. He is also under contract for $8.35mil next year and at the age of 27 if he has a similar season to the past two years- we’ll say 3.5 WAR- then he’ll be worth $15.4mil in 2011. Between 2010 and 2011 that brings his value to $16.4. However, if you subtract the money he is owed, Jackson walks away with a net value of about $7mil.

In my estimation, that’s an optimistic projection for Jackson, simply because of the park he is going to. In 2009 he broke out, but he did pitch in Comerica, a pitchers park. Yes, I know Chase is a hitter’s park as well and he’s done a decent job there this season, but US Cellular is a step above Chase. For a pitcher like Jackson, he could be killed by the fact runs, homers, doubles, and walks all go up in Cellular Field.

As for the D-Backs return, they got a nice arm in Dan Hudson. I know in 34 professional innings he has stunk, but that’s just it- 34 innings. As we all know if you’re reading this blog, 34 innings is a mega SSS. Hudson was the #3 prospect in Chicago’s system according to BA, and they also said he had the best slider and control in their farm system. Moreover, they also ranked him as the 66th best prospect in baseball and labeled his best tool as command. So it seems as if he is someone who will have a low BB rate in their career. If so, then it’s more evidence that the 11 BB he’s given up in 15 ML innings this season can be attributed to a SSS. Hudson is a big time strikeout pitcher with over a K per inning in his MiLB career and he doesn’t walk too many batters nor does he give up too many home runs. Factor in that he will be under team control for FIVE more years after 2010 and it’s easy to see why he would have a lot of value. If we label him a top fifty pitching prospect, he would be worth about $15-$16mil in value.

The White Sox also gave up a nineteen year old pitching prospect, taken in the second round of last year’s draft, and someone who was already rated the eighth best prospect in the Sox system.

So as it stands right now, I’d say the White Sox got fleeced. They gave up five controlled years of a real good pitching prospect and another prospect, for a year and two months of a decent starting pitcher. Moreover, Jackson won’t terribly help the Sox down the stretch, especially since he may not even perform better than Hudson going forward in 2010 (and 2011 to boot). In fact, Jackson might not even pitch in October should the Sox get there, if they go with a three man rotation of Gavin Floyd, John Danks, and Mark Buehrle.

HOWEVER, there is a strong feeling that Jackson could be flipped for Adam Dunn. Adam Dunn would help the White Sox a lot more than Edwin Jackson or Dan Hudson, especially since their lineup is a bigger area of concern than their rotation. While Dunn would only be in Chicago for two months, a whole year less than Jackson will be, he would also net the White Sox two draft picks. In a loaded 2011 draft, the Sox might value those two picks and what Dunn will bring in 2010, more than Hudson and Holmberg. And that is a fair thought process for Kenny Williams to have.

So…if Jackson stays in Chicago, it’s a win-lose in favor of Arizona. If Jackson is flipped for Adam Dunn, then I would call it a win-win.

And real quick, lets look the D-Backs. They got Jackson and Ian Kennedy for Max Scherzer and Dan Schlereth. In turn, they got Dan Hudson and David Holmberg for Jackson. So that’s Scherzer and Schlereth out, IPK, Holmberg, and Hudson in. At the end of the day, that’s not too bad.

4PARL end of season awards

October 8, 2009

It’s that time of the year again where people start mentioning their official votes for MLB season awards. If we had a vote, this is how it’d go down:

AL MVP:

Disco- Joe Mauer

Bballer- Zack Greinke

Trekker- Joe Mauer

Twaco- Joe Mauer

NL MVP:

Disco- Albert Pujols

Bballer- Albert Pujols

Trekker- Albert Pujols

Twaco- Albert Pujols

AL Cy Young:

Disco- Zack Greinke

Bballer- Zack Greinke

Trekker- Zack Greinke

Twaco- Zack Greinke

NL Cy Young:

Disco- Tim Lincecum

Bballer- Tim Lincecum

Trekker- Chris Carpenter

Twaco- Tim Lincecum

AL Rookie of Year:

Disco- Brett Anderson

Bballer- Elvis Andrus

Trekker- Jeff Niemann

Twaco- Brett Anderson

NL Rookie of Year:

Disco- Andrew McCutchen

Bballer- Garret Jones

Trekker- Andrew McCutchen

Twaco- Andrew McCutchen

AL DHL Delivery Man of Year:

Disco- Mariano Rivera

Bballer- Andrew Bailey

Trekker- Mariano Rivera

Twaco- Mariano Rivera

NL DHL Delivery Man of Year:

Disco- Jon Broxton

Bballer- Jon Broxton

Trekker- Jon Broxton

Twaco- Jon Broxton

Disco’s Silver Sluggers:

C- Joe Mauer; Brian McCann

1b- Miguel Cabrera; Albert Pujols

2b- Ben Zobrist; Chase Utley

3b- Alex Rodriguez; Pablo Sandoval

SS- Derek Jeter; Hanley Ramirez

OF- Jason Bay, JD Drew, Shin-soo Choo; Ryan Braun, Adam Dunn, Justin Upton

DH- Adam Lind

*Kevin Youkilis deserves props. He split between 1b/3b so I didn’t give him the benefit at 1b or 3b.

Bballer’s Silver Sluggers:

C- Joe Mauer; Brian McCann

1b- Miguel Cabrera; Albert Pujols

2b- Ben Zobrist; Chase Utley

3b- Kevin Youkilis; Ryan Zimmerman

SS- Derek Jeter; Hanley Ramirez

OF- Jason Bay, JD Drew, Adam Lind; Justin Upton, Jayson Werth, Ryan Braun

DH- Hideki Matsui

Trekker’s Silver Sluggers:

C- Joe Mauer; Brian McCann

1b- Miguel Cabrera; Albert Pujols

2b- Ben Zobrist; Chase Utley

3b- Alex Rodriguez; Pablo Sandoval

SS- Derek Jeter; Hanley Ramirez

OF- Jason Bay, Adam Lind, Shin-Soo Choo; Justin Upton, Adam Dunn, Ryan Braun

DH- Jason Kubel

Twaco’s Silver Sluggers:

C- Joe Mauer; Brian McCann

1b- Kevin Youkilis; Albert Pujols

2b- Ben Zobrist; Chase Utley

3B- Alex Rodriguez; Pablo Sandoval

SS- Derek Jeter; Hanley Ramirez

OF- Jason Bay, Adam Lind, JD Drew; Justin Upton, Ryan Braun, Adam Dunn

DH- Hideki Matsui

Disco’s Gold Gloves:

C- Kurt Suzuki; Yadier Molina

1b- Mark Teixeira; James Loney

2b- Chase Utley; Dustin Pedroia

3B- Evan Longoria; Ryan Zimmerman

SS- Elvis Andrus; Troy Tulowitzki

OF- Franklin Guitierez, Ryan Sweeney, David DeJesus; Nyjer Morgan, Mike Cameron, Randy Winn

Bballer’s Gold Glovers:

C- Joe Mauer; Yadier Molina

1b- Kevin Youkilis; Adrian Gonzalez

2b- Placido Polanco; Chase Utley

3b- Evan Longoria; Ryan Zimmerman

SS- Jason Bartlett; JJ Hardy

OF- Franklin Guitierez, Carl Crawford, BJ Upton; Mike Cameron, Colby Rasmus, Raul Ibanez

Trekker’s Gold Glovers:

C- Joe Mauer; Yadier Molina

1b- Mark Teixeira; Adrian Gonzalez

2b- Dustin Pedroia; Chase Utley

3b- Evan Longoria; Ryan Zimmerman

SS- Elvis Andrus; Rafael Furcal

OF- Ichiro, Franklin Guitierez, Carl Crawford; Nyjer Morgan, Mike Cameron, Colby Rasmus

Twaco’s Gold Glovers:

C- Joe Mauer; Yadier Molina

1b- Mark Teixeira; Albert Pujols

2b- Dustin Pedroia; Chase Utley

3B- Evan Longoria; Ryan Zimmerman

SS- Elvis Andrus; Rafael Furcal

OF- Nelson Cruz, Franklin Guitierez, David DeJesus; Justin Upton, Mike Cameron, Raul Ibanez