Posted tagged ‘Arizona Diamonbacks’

Los Angeles Angels trade for Dan Haren

July 25, 2010

In what will be the biggest news of the day (and possibly the week) the Los Angeles Angels have traded for Dan Haren. The Angels seemingly jumped in out of nowhere to get this deal done when the favorites were the Yankees, Tigers, and Phillies. So they must have put together some amazing package considering they wanted Joba Chamberlain from New York and Andrew Oliver from Detroit, right? Wrong.

In return for the annual Cy Young candidate, the Arizona Diamondbacks will be receiving Joe Saunders, prospects Rafael Rodriguez and Patrick Corbin, as well as a player to be named later.

Yeah, dumb. A well below average pitcher, a minor league RELIEF PITCHER, and a prospect who ranked #22 in the Angels system prior to the season. For Dan Haren.

Apparently the 29 year old Joe Saunders and a relief pitcher are more attractive than a 24 year old Joba Chamberlain and Manny Banuelos, a top ten prospect in the Yankees system. Even if the Yankees didn’t want to give up those two, Ivan Nova and Zach McAllister are better prospects than Patrick Corbin and Rafael Rodriguez.

I’m not going to delve too much into each player involved, but just on a player to player comparison, there is no comparison. Joe Saunders or Joba Chamberlain? Give me Joba every time. I know he is a reliever (right now) and has been a big let down. But he is more talented than Saunders. He is five years younger than Saunders. He has more cost-controlled seasons and is cheaper than Saunders. He has more potential than Saunders. As a relief pitcher who has thrown 1/3 the innings of Saunders in 2010, Joba has a better WAR.

But let’s say New York truly wouldn’t give Joba up. Let’s look at Ivan Nova and Zach McAllister instead. Neither is a stud prospect, but both are currently in AAA and close to ML ready, if not already. They don’t have much upside, but they should at least be better than Joe Saunders- and they would be under control for a combined twelve seasons, compared to two for Saunders.

As for the rest of the deal- Rafael Rodriguez? Really? A 26 year old RELIEF PITCHER? That guy is gonna be pretty damn valuable, huh Arizona. A relief pitcher for Dan Haren. Just cracks me up. He has been pretty damn good in the PCL, a huge hitters league, but relief pitchers offer so little value and are so unpredictable year to year. Unless he is the next Mariano, I doubt he’ll even be a D-Back in the long term (the same goes for Saunders).

Patrick Corbin could be a decent player. His upside is the middle to end of the rotation. He is a good enough prospect for ‘Zona to take on- assuming the other players in the deal are better. But they aren’t. He is in A ball right now, so he is still far away. You can read a scouting report on him here. Apparently he profiles a lot like Joe Saunders. Oh boy.

Not too long ago I addressed a potential Dan Haren trade to New York and broke down Haren’s value. I said he would bring a team about $23.4mil in value. So how did Arizona make out? Well, they got Joe Saunders for the next two seasons. Let’s say he is 1.5 WAR in 2011 and 2012. With a market rate of $4.4mil per win, that would be worth $13.2mil. But they need to pay him about $1mil this season plus 2011 and 2012. Using the 40/60/80 arbitration scale, he would make about $5.9mil in 2011 and $10.6mil in 2012. That’s a total of $17.5mil. Subtract that from his $13.2mil in value and you get -$4.3mil. Eeesh- ‘Zona is in the red right now. I don’t believe Rafael Rodriguez would be a top 100 pitching prospect, but I’ll be generous and say he is a B level prospect even though he is 26 and a relief pitcher. A B level pitching prospect is worth $7.3mil. While Patrick Corbin isn’t even a top ten pitching prospect in the Angels system, I’ll be generous again and label him a top 76-100 pitching prospect. That’s worth $9.8mil. So let’s add it all up! -$4.3mil + $7.3mil + $9.8mil = $12.8mil.

Josh Byrnes, where art thou? What a pathetic trade from Arizona’s point of view. Not only did they take the worst offer on the table, but they didn’t get anywhere near fair value in return. Ouch.

From the Angels point of view, what a steal. Whether the trade helps them in 2010 or not- and I doubt it will since they are too far behind in my estimation- a steal is a steal. Plus, it sets them up to be a pretty damn good team in 2011 depending on their off-season. Their rotation now features Jered Weaver, Dan Haren, Joel Piniero, and Ervin Santana. In the off-season I could easily see them signing Javy Vazquez on a 1/8 or 2/16 type deal to give them a pretty dominant rotation. Early rumors are they will chase Carl Crawford as well. If they do that, with their projected 2011 rotation, they could pry the AL West crown back from the Rangers.

As for the Yanks, they walk out losers again. They were a mere minutes- no, seconds- away from landing the best pitcher going in the AL in the form of Cliff Lee. Now they went into the Haren talks as favorites again and walked away empty-handed. If the D-Backs were taking a shitty package like that, I would have loved to have Haren. However, I’m not overly disappointed. I will be though, if the Yankees truly desire SP right now. I DO NOT want Roy Oswalt or Ted Lilly. This non-trade better not push the Yanks in that direction. Andy is supposed to be back sooner than expected, so I would wait it out and install Ivan Nova into the rotation.

I want to end this post by saying: LOL, Arizona D-Backs GM fail. The PTBNL better be Kendry Morales or Jered Weaver, because when we look back on this trade in a decade, it might just be one of the worst trades in that time span.

Honestly, Arizona was better off keeping Haren. I know they want to re-build, but he is a top 10 NL pitcher with an affordable contract. When you rebuild, he’s the player you keep. They have core talent and aren’t far away, so they don’t need a fire sale. Whatever pieces they get from Kelly Johnson or Adam LaRoche could be enough to get them back on track. But when they do trade those other two players, there is no way they can get any value in return. Teams will look at this trade and laugh if Arizona even asks for a decent prospect. And if they really HAD to trade him, I can’t believe they didn’t think they could do better. I mean, an AS level pitcher, in his prime, with an affordable contract, under team control for 2-3 more seasons. The fact the other team would control him beyond 2010 should instantly bump up his value. But I guess not.

LOL ‘Zona.

EDIT: I want to add- by the time Haren’s contract runs up in 2013, Rodriguez and Saunders may not even be D-Backs and Corbin may not have even made his debut yet.

The D-Backs would have payed Haren $25.50mil in 2011 and 2012. Through arbitration they will probably pay Saunders $17mil. Is the $8mil difference worth it?

Advertisements

2010 Divisional Previews and Predictions: NL West

March 18, 2010

Finally after finishing the American League predictions, I move onto the National League. The NL west should be a very competitive race and it is probably the best division in the National League. With four out of the five teams that could end up being contenders this year, this years race might come down to little things like which team plays the best defense, which team has the best bullpen, or possibly even which team can stay the healthiest.

1. Colorado Rockies

Key Departures: Jason Marquis

Key Arrivals: None.

I guess you could say that Jeff Francis is a key arrival since he missed all of last season. His return to the Rockies rotation makes it a lot better because it avoids them having to worry about possible spot starting or starting someone who does not have a lot of major league experience. I like the rotation of Jimenez, De La Rosa, Francis, Hammell (who I think will improve a good bit from last year), and Aaron Cook. The Rockies do not have any question marks in their rotation or bullpen and their bullpen is extremely underrated and it is comparable with the Dodgers. The back end of their rotation basically puts the Rockies ahead of the Dodgers for me. Having a strong rotation 1-5 is very important because it gives your team a chance to win every game. Both offenses are really, really good as well. The Rockies are obviously helped by Coors Field but their offense is still very well-rounded and has a possible breakout candidate in Carlos Gonzalez. The Rockies defense is nothing special but it has a chance to improve on a UZR of -14 last season. The Rockies have the potential to be a scary team this year.

2. Los Angeles Dodgers

Key Departures: Orlando Hudson, Juan Pierre, and Randy Wolf

Key Arrivals: None.

The Dodgers did not improve themselves any this off-season and it will end up costing them the divison. They lost key pieces in Orlando Hudson, Juan Pierre, and Randy Wolf. That could add up to approximately 5-6 wins, or possibly even a little more. Instead, they replace Hudson with Belliard and Wolf with Vincente Padilla. Both of those guys are a little bit of a downgrade. The biggest question for the Dodgers is who is going to step up and take the 5th starters role. This is a gaping hole that the Dodgers have. It will either be Eric Stults or James McDonald. Also, will they get the Chad Billingsley of 2007 and 2008? Or the Chad Billingsley of 2009? There are too many question marks in the Dodgers rotation for me to put them in first. They have one of the best bullpens in the league and an offense that is just as good as the Rockies, but their rotation is what is going to cost them in the end. Look for the Dodgers to make a trade for a pitcher at the deadline of they are still in contention, which I expect them to be. That could help their chances, but I can’t rely on a mid-season trade happening to put them over the top.

3. Arizona Diamondbacks

Key Departures: Max Scherzer and Doug Davis

Key Arrivals: Edwin Jackson, Kelly Johnson, Adam LaRoche, and Ian Kennedy

The Giants have question marks in their lineup, the Diamondbacks have question marks in their rotation. I will take the team with the higher upside here and pick the Diamonbacks to finish in third place. Webb possibly starting the season on the DL hurts them significantly. I still expect them to get solid production out of Jackson and Haren. Their issue is the bottom half of their rotation. Can Ian Kennedy and Billy Bucker really be relied on to carry the load in the 4th and 5th starters roles? The Diamondbacks have a solid defense to help them out. They posted a team UZR of 21.6 last season. I absolutely love the upside on the other side of the plate for the Diamondbacks. I expect a bounce back season out of Kelly Johnson and Connor Jackson. Miguel Montero is a very, very good hitter for a catcher and Adam LaRoche could have a really good year in the desert, and we all know what Justin Upton is capable of. The Diamondbacks posted a triple slash (avg, obp, slug%) of .253/.324/.418 as well as a wOBA of .324 and with two nice additions on offense, and emerging young talent, they will surely improve on those numbers.

4. San Francisco Giants

Key Departures: Randy Winn, Randy Johnson, and Brad Penny

Key Arrivals: Mark DeRosa and Aubrey Huff

The Giants did make a couple of moves to help their putrid offense. They had a league worst .305 wOBA and their batters only accounted for 13.9 wins above replacement. I really don’t think their offense will improve much this year. Aubrey Huff shows that he is not a consistent player with his BABIP constantly fluctuating. You never know what kind of year you are going to get from him. Based on his new home park, can you guess which Aubrey Huff I think we are going to see this year? An aging Mark DeRosa will help to an extent, but you have to wonder how much he has left in the tank at age 34. Their rotation looks promising, however. Lincecum, is, well, Lincecum. Matt Cain is a great #2 and Barry Zito seems like he is still capable of holding it together. Madison Bumgarner and Jonathan Sanchez are promising young starters at the back end and the Giants probably have the best #4 and #5 starters in the division. Their inability to get on base will kill them in the end. With an NL West that will surely be better than last year as a whole, the Giants probably won’t win 88 games.

5. San Diego Padres

Key Departures: Kevin Kouzmanoff

Key Arrivals: Jon Garland and Yorvit Torrealba

Notice what the trend has been among the last place teams in just about every division that I have covered thus far? Well, they are all in the midst of the rebuilding process. The Padres have managed to bring in Jon Garland who is a solid veteran as well as Vorvit Torrealba. Kyle Blanks and Mat Latos will be the interesting players to watch if you are a Padres fan, or if you have them on your fantasy team. The event that Padres fans are most curious about is what will be done with Adrian Gonzalez this season. The Padres could be seeing themselves back up at the top of the NL West in a couple of years if they keep on raking in the prospects. As for now, the Padres are not going anywhere but staying in the cellar.

Disco’s NL West Predictions:
1.Rockies
2.Dodgers
3.Diamondbacks
4.Giants
5.Padres

JeffMac’s NL West Predictions:
1.Dodgers
2.Giants
3.Diamondbacks
4.Rockies
5.Padres

YC’s NL West Predictions:
1.Rockies
2.Dodgers
3.Diamondbacks
4.Giants
5.Padres

ES42’s NL West Predictions:
1.Rockies
2.Dodgers
3.Giants
4.Diamondbacks
5.Padres

KG3’s NL West Predictions:
1.Dodgers
2.Rockies
3.Giants
4.Diamondbacks
5.Padres

Dougbies NL West Predictions:
1.Rockies
2.Giants
3.Dodgers
4.Diamondbacks
5.Padres

Owners NL West Predictions:
1.Giants
2.Dodgers
3.Rockies
4.Diamondbacks
5.Padres