Posted tagged ‘Brian Cashman’

Yankees and Freddy Garcia agree

February 1, 2011

I like it.

It’s a minor league deal, so if he stinks in ST he won’t make the team. If he is pitching well, he can be a servicable 5th starter for $1.5-$2mil depending on his incentives. His incentives can climb to $5mil, which would probably be a good thing if that happens since it will mean he had a real good season and thus would be underpaid at $5mil.

He has put up slightly better than 1 fWAR seasons in limited innings the past two seasons, so any similar performance will be solid from the 5th spot in the rotation. Especially considering our #5 starters last year had about a 0 WAR and it’s been that way for pretty much the past decade.

Patience is a virtue, stoopid Yankee fans. Cashman may not have won the Porsche (Cliff Lee) but he’s doing a good job waiting and potentially finding the diamond in the rough.

 

And side note- Freddy Garcia’s career has been REALLY underrated. He has a career 31.5 fWAR in 1929 innings (3.3 WAR/200 IP) and from 1999-2006 was really good.

 

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Dumb link of the day

January 23, 2011

http://www.nydailynews.com/sports/baseball/yankees/2011/01/22/2011-01-22_yankees_gm_brian_cashman_might_want_to_leave_bombers_and_finally_have_a_chance_t.html

 

Not the article itself. But the comments. Holy shit. Blaming Cash for all of Steinbrenner’s move from pre-2006. Blaming Cash for Javy Vazquez, even though it was a good trade at the time. Blaming Cash for not winning more World Series- even though during his true tenure of about 2006-present he took an old, aging, well over-paid team with no farm system to a World Series winner in three seasons and a team with a farm system that has twice now been ranked in the top 5 of baseball. Sure, he has more money than any other GM to play with, but you can still get in trouble with buckets of money, as proven by George Steinbrenner pre-2006 when he basically ran the Yankees, and not Brian Cashman.

On a side note, while I will be pissed if Cash does leave since he’s a top tier GM and no one outside the organization is on the free market to replace him, it would be nice to see the Yankees promote Damon Oppenheimer. He’s a great baseball mind and talent evaluator. Other teams are often inquiring about him, so I’d rather keep him than lose him.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Mingdurga is the only sane commenter.

Yankees should claim Hiroki Kuroda

August 25, 2010

Hiroki Kuroda of the LA Dodgers hit waivers yesterday, but New York Yankees GM Brian Cashman is standing pat. He believes there is no pitcher on the market worth making a claim for, because he believes Dustin Moseley has pitched better than anyone available.

Before I get into Cashman’s opinions, I want to talk about Kuroda.

He is good. Real good. Now that I think about it, he may be the most underrated pitcher in baseball. Seriously- the dood is a very good pitcher and I NEVER he his name mentioned as being a great pitcher by the MSM. That is especially intriguing since he pitches in LA, but I digress.

Since his debut in 2008, Kuroda has had a sub-4 ERA, FIP, xFIP, and tERA. Whoa. His career line is 6.45 K/9, 2.09 BB/9, 0.74 HR/9 with a 3.66 ERA, 3.53 FIP, 3.77 xFIP, and 3.59 tERA. Talk about consistent across the board. He also has a career 51.2% GB rate and 30.5% FB rate. So besides keeping runners off the bases by not issuing walks, he limits fly balls which prevents home runs, and induces ground balls which is key considering he has a good, but not special K rate. His 2010 season has been right in line with his career to date. He has a 7.21 K/9, 2.32 BB/9, 0.73 HR/9 with a 3.48 ERA and 3.41 FIP over 147 innings. His GB% is also at 52.6%, so Kuroda is still getting ground balls. Going forward, ZiPS believes Kuroda will maintain his production and finish with a 3.50 ERA and 3.48 FIP.

Hiroki Kuroda would be a great fit in NYS. While the jury is still out, especially with limited sample size, it looks as though NYS actually deflates a pitchers K numbers, just looking at the numbers of CC Sabathia, AJ Burnett, and Javy Vazquez. So Kuroda won’t be losing a weapon of his, since he is not a strikeout pitcher. Also, home runs are inflated at NYS, so the fact Kuroda really limits homers is crucial. As long as he keeps generating ground ball outs, the negatives of NYS will not effect him. Kuroda would also be a key member of the rotation down the stretch. Right now, the Yankees rotation as a whole is not World Series caliber. Yes, CC has been awesome as usual, but outside him there are several question marks. Vazquez was just relegated to the bullpen and was replaced by a rookie. Andy Pettitte’s injury is not healing and no one knows how will pitch when he returns, if he returns. AJ Burnett is Jekyll and Hyde. Phil Hughes has an innings limit and hasn’t been that great in the second half. Moselely is Moseley. Kuroda could step in and be our surefire number two and really bolster the rotation. CC/Kuroda/Pettitte/Burnett or Hughes sounds a lot better than CC/Pettitte/Burnett/Hughes.

So why is Brian Cashman saying the Yankees are content with what they currently have? Personally, I think it’s a bluff. In order to get Kuroda, no other team in baseball will have made a claim on him. So I believe Cashman is showing no interest on the outside no team tries to block him from the Yankees. At the same time, by “showing faith” in Moseley, Cashman is trying to bump Moseley’s value. Cashman is not a fool. Moseley was never good in the past, and hasn’t pitched that well in New York. He knows Kuroda is better. So he is probably trying to inflate Moseley’s worth and perceived value, while trying to make sure no one blocks Kuroda from New York.

Now what will it cost to get Kuroda? I cannot imagine it will be much. Including October, the number of starts he would make as a Yankee would be in the single digits, or just above ten. Despite that, the Yanks will still owe him a couple million dollars, which is offset by the fact he is a type B free agent (but I doubt New York would offer him arbitration). If the Yanks give up more than a C or D prospect, I would be disappointed. But it might just be worth it if New York wants to really strengthen its chances of beating Texas, Minnesota, or Tampa Bay in the postseason.

Overreaction

July 9, 2010

Okay, so it’s been a couple hours and I’ve let the trade soak in.

I still think it’s an unnecessary trade where the value we give exceeds the value we will be getting in return. In fact, a commenter on RLYW said it best:

Of course we’re all going to back Lee, none of us ever said differently. We can only judge based off of what we do know, which is that we’re trading our best prospect since Jeter(maybe, arguable) for a 4 month rental of someone we could have had after the season purely for cash.

All in exchange for an extremely slight upgrade in our already high chances of winning it all this year.

I couldn’t have said it better myself. Lee is amazing, but he only provides a slightly better chance of winning the World Series. That is not worth a prospect that has the magnitude of Jesus Montero.

However, there are positives to the trade.

1) We are clear cut World Series favorites. I should just embrace that. Rather than fret over losing a huge piece of the future, I should just sit back and enjoy the present moment, because who knows how the future will play out.

2) It’s Cliff Lee. SG of RLYW pointed out, he isn’t Pedro circa 1999-2000, but as I highlighted in my AL Cy Young post, Cliff Lee is having an historic season. There is a good chance he will break the single season record for K/BB. Our staff is already solid and boasts three all-stars, but Lee will make that four all-stars.

3) Dynasty. If we win the title this year it will mean the Yanks will be the first back to back World Champions since they did so from 1998-2000. But the near future could hold even more titles. In all likelihood, the Yanks will retain Lee’s services in the off-season. The rest of the team should pretty much retain in tact. But the development of a dynasty depends on a couple things. One is Austin Romine’s development. While he doesn’t have the star potential of Jesus Montero, I could see him producing similar to a Kurt Suzuki. I’ll take solid defense, league average offense- which is actually good for a catcher-, and 3 WAR seasons from my catcher. The other is the development of Gary Sanchez. As a teenager in the GCL, he looks like Jesus Montero 2.0 except slightly better defensively. If he can develop into a legitimate prospect three to five years from now, it will soften the blow of losing Montero. And if I had the choice between keeping Montero or trading Lee in the hopes of a dynasty, I would take the dynasty. The point of the game is to win championships. If the acquisition of Lee could be the foundation of a dynasty run, then yeah, it will be worth trading Montero.

If we don’t win a championship this season though…whoa boy. But let’s not even think of that possibility.

I’m going to miss you, Jesus. You’re the one minor league player whose boxscore I checked every night, going back to your days in the GCL. Good luck in the Seattle Mariners organization and don’t make this loss sting too much. Besides, six years from now when the Mariners don’t have the money to give you your 10/$100000000000mil deal, we might be getting you back in another trade (I can hope, right?).

And Cliff, welcome to the Bronx. Don’t let us down.

P.S.- Later today or tomorrow I want to breakdown Cashman’s past three “big” trades over the past seven months, going back to the Curtis Granderson trade. I adhere to the “In Cashmoney We Trust” motto, and he has made some absolute heists on the trade market, but these past three have been quite interesting to say the least.

Please tell me I’m dreaming

July 9, 2010

I woke up this morning to reports that the New York Yankees have acquired Cliff Lee for Jesus Montero, David Adams, and another prospect.

Gag me with a spoon.

Yes, with Cliff Lee the Yankees are all but the official 2010 World Series champions. But this is a poor, poor trade. Earlier this week I looked at possible Cliff Lee trades and this is what I said on a possible deal with New York:

Although it makes more sense for the Yankees to go after Lee in the off-season because 1)They wouldn’t have to give up prospects and 2)There is no space for him in the rotation unless Javier Vazquez is traded, you can’t count them out of any deal, especially with rumors that they are starting to get serious about trade talks. The most obvious player Seattle would want is top Yankee prospect, Jesus Montero, a consensus top five prospect in baseball. Top ten hitting prospects provide $36.5mil in value, so giving up Montero is a little excessive from the Yankees point of view, unless they receive additional pieces, such as bench or bullpen relief.

Of all the contenders for Lee, the Yankees need Lee the least, driving down his marginal win value for the Yankees. As a result, the Yankees should not even think of offering Montero for Lee. Sure, they are the current World Series favorites and landing Lee would make them the champs on paper, but it’s not worth giving up Montero when you can win the World Series without Lee AND still sign him come winter. Acquiring Lee means trading Vazquez, or demoting Vazquez or Phil Hughes to the bullpen, which isn’t happening. Moreover, the marginal win value of Lee over Hughes or Vazquez is very small.

This is not a wise long-term move. Sure, in 2010 it pays off, but Montero has a power bat that is capable of producing MVP seasons- whether it be at catcher, first base, or DH.

Lee is not worth Montero straight up. A top 10 hitting prospect is worth about $36mil in value. As I talked about in the earlier post, Lee will be worth close to $25.5mil to whatever team acquires him. HOWEVER, he is probably worth less than that to us since the marginal win value of Lee over Vazquez in minimal. Vazquez is projected to have a 3.79 FIP the rest of the season and Cliff Lee’s rest of season projected FIP is 3.11. Yes, it’s better, but Vazquez’s is still good. So is that small difference worth trading Jesus Montero? Simply put- no. No, no, no, no, no.

So we’re trading a top prospect for a MINIMAL upgrade of maybe 1-2 wins the rest of the season. Not worth it- especially considering the Yankees are World Series favorites without him and will probably sign him in the offseason anyway.

I said we can estimate Montero is worth $36mil through his first six arbitration years. But he is an amazing hitter. Lets say he moves to 1b and averages 2 WAR his first three seasons and 4 WAR his final three arbitration seasons. That would be around $81mil in value using a conservative $ per WAR.

I love you Cashman, but don’t do it. Do not pull the trigger on this blockbuster deal. I know the vision of winning a World Series in October is tempting, but don’t let it possess you into making a not-so brilliant move. Have faith in Vazquez, and have faith in the team winning the World Series without Cliff Lee. Keep Jesus Montero, who could be an impact player on the 2011 team, and look into acquiring Lee via free agency after the season.

Please.