Posted tagged ‘Chicago White Sox’

First big trade of trading season

July 27, 2011

In pretty big news this early afternoon, the Toronto Blue Jays traded Jason Frasor and Zach Stewart to the Chicago White Sox for Edwin Jackson and Mark Teahen. From there the Blue Jays will trade Edwin Jackson, Octavio Dotel, and Mark Rzepczynski to the St. Louis Cardinals for Colby Rasmus. Wowzers. So let’s break this down.

St. Louis gets:

BUT…as of now both Edwin Jackson and Dotel are Type B free agents. So if St. Louis lets them go, they get an additional $5mil in value, bringing their net value return to $7.31mil. However, they did trade Colby Rasmus.

So the Cardinals lose about double the value they gain. For them, Rasmus figures to be worth about $21-$22mil, but they only get about $10mil of value in return through two rentals, and a middling relief pitcher. A dumb, dumb trade for the Cardinals, unless they truly believe whoever they pick with their presumed compensation picks will turn out better than Rasmus- a long shot bet to make.

Also, for 2012-2014 I projected Rasmus would accumulate about 11 WAR and be worth around $52mil while being paid around $31mil in arbitration.

Now, let’s look at the Jays. We know they are getting about $21-$22mil of value in Rasmus, but what about what they traded away.

So here we see they gave away about $14.5mil in value, mainly because of top pitching prospect Zach Stewart. But, both Dotel and Frasor are type B FAs, so add about $5mil to that. In the end, the Jays come out slightly in the black, and get a young, good center fielder who is under team control for another three seasons. The only person they might miss is Stewart- when that’s the case, it’s a good deal.

Time to see how Chicago did

Nice, so they get about $16mil in value because of prospect Zach Stewart. Also, I have his value at $15.9mil because according to Victor Wang, a top 26-50 pitching prospect is worth that much. I know he has 3 ML starts already, but for this sake I am treating like a prospect still.



So the Sox really are getting a steal here. They get $16mil in value, when they should have gotten -$3mil in value because that’s what they are giving up. Mark Teahen is so bad that just by giving him up, they shouldn’t expect anything in return. But instead  they get Stewart- not bad. So it essentially comes down to Jackson v. Stewart. Jackson has done well in Chicago, but for them they’d rather go with the cheap, younger Stewart over the proven commodity. Can’t blame them.

So in the end, I like the deal for Toronto and Chicago. In the short-run, Jackson might help St. Louis win the division more in 2011 than Rasmus, but down the line it’s a terrible deal for them.

UPDATE: Apparently Trevor Miller, Brian Tallet, and PJ Walters are also in the deal going from the Cardinals to the Blue Jays, with Miller then going to Chicago. Corey Patterson is going to the Cardinals with three PTBNL. That doesn’t change much. The most important aspects of the trades are Stewart to Chicago, Rasmus to Toronto, and Jackson to St. Louis. Everyone else is a filler pretty much. I mean, if the PTBNL are nice prospects than it will be a decent deal for St. Louis, but that’s probably not the case.

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Divisional Preview: AL Central

March 29, 2011

Following a season in which the Minnesota Twins won the division by a comfortable margin the 2011 AL Central should feature a much more competitive race at the top and some exciting young players at the bottom. The Tigers and White Sox spent big in the offseason bringing in power at the DH spot in the form of Adam Dunn and Victor Martinez, but will they be enough to take down the two time defending division champs? As for the remaining teams in the division, fans should be looking past 2011 and into the future. Both the Royals and Indians have young talent at the major league level or on the cusp of making the big club. Without any further discussion here, let’s get to the predictions.

1) Minnesota Twins (91-71)

The two times defending AL Central Champions did not make any big splashes in Free Agency this off season aside from retaining Carl Pavano and Jim Thome, but they brought in Japanese SS, Tsuyoshi Nishioka. Nishioka does not project as a star at the major league level, however he provides the Twins with depth in the middle of the field and some speed at the bottom or top of the lineup. For a more detailed scouting report of Nishioka check out Patrick Newman of Fangraphs here. Pavano provides the Twins with a serviceable #2 pitcher behind Francisco Liriano who trade rumors have been circling around for most of the off-season. Thome is unlikely to see similar results to 2010 when he posted a .437 wOBA, his best since 2002 but as a bat off the bench, part time DH and insurance policy to Justin Morneau, Thome should provide the Twins with excellent value once again.

The Twins winning the division will come down to a few things. First is the health of Justin Morneau. Returning from the highly publicized concussion last summer, Morneau could provide the Twins with a second MVP caliber bat in the middle of lineup to go along with Joe Mauer. If Morneau can stay healthy and even come near his 2010 production the Twins are the one team in the division that has the opportunity to run away from their competitors. Second is the ascension of Francisco Liriano to elite status in the American League. Following a 6.0 WAR season where he never saw his ERA catch up to his peripherals, Liriano could be in the mix at the end of the season for the AL CY Young award. The Final piece to the puzzle is the rest of the rotation and return to health of Joe Nathan. Can Carl Pavano provide another 200+ quality innings, will Brian Duensing provide 160 innings and push 3 WAR, and what about Kyle Gibson who could force his way into the rotation by mid season. The Twins have depth in the rotation, star power in the lineup and the knack for out producing expectations every year and as a result my pick to win a third straight division crown.

Players to watch: Justin Morneau, Tsuyoshi Nishioka

2) Chicago White Sox (88-74)

The always entertaining Chicago White Sox spent big dollars this offseason to add DH Adam Dunn from the Washington Nationals and to retain all-star 1B Paul Konerko. The $56 million spent on Dunn should improve what was a middle of the pack offensive club in 2010. Dunn has posted 38 or more home runs in all of the last seven seasons and never has he had a wOBA below .365 in that time. To go along with Dunn the White Sox have Konerko coming off a career year. Unlikely to repost 39 home runs or a .415 wOBA the White Sox would be pleased with anything close to career norms of .273/.356/.498 from Konerko this season. The biggest question mark in the 2011 White Sox lineup will be at 2B. Which Gordon Beckham should the Sox expect? The one who posted below replacement level numbers in the first 3 months of 2010 or the one who posted wOBA’s of .410 and .388 during the summer months. The answer of course is somewhere in the middle, Beckham has all-star potential at 2B, but likely not in 2011.

The 2011 White Sox season will come down to the rotation though. With a bullpen anchored by Matt Thornton and Chris Sale giving up leads late in games won’t be the teams issue, and scoring runs as discussed won’t be the problem. However with Jake Peavy not ready for opening day and reports from his doctor that 60 pitches might be his maximum at this point the top of the rotation has a really big red flag. Throw in the always inconsistent Edwin Jackson and White Sox fans could be on the edge of their seat all season trying to get through the first six innings. One thing we do know, Mark Buehrle is going to pitch 210 innings have an ERA around 4.00 and give the White Sox 3.5-4.0 WAR. If Gavin Floyd and John Danks could provide similar numbers the White Sox could challenge the Minnesota Twins in 2011, but as of opening day I do not see that happening.

Players to watch: Gordon Beckham, Chris Sale

3) Detroit Tigers (84-78)

Like their AL Central counterpart the Tigers spent big money on a DH this offseason, giving a 4 yr $50 million dollar contract to former Red Sox and Indian Victor Martinez. Although Martinez may see some time at catcher his primary duty will be as protection for AL MVP favorite Miguel Cabrera. Cabrera for all his off the field issues including a much publicized arrest early in Spring Training for DWI is still considered the American League’s best hitter. For the Tigers to be competitive the middle of the lineup Cabrera, Martinez and Maglio Ordonez will have to be excellent. With those three and young CF Austin Jackson at the top of the lineup the Tigers could score in north of 780 runs this season and push for the AL Central title but it seems unlikely at this point with two better teams ahead of them.

There are some very bright spots for the Tigers in the rotation however. Anchored by my pick for AL Cy Young this season, Justin Verlander and up and coming star Max Scherzer the Tigers sport what is the best 1-2 in the AL Central for 2011. Couple these two with Rick Porcello who has shown signs of being a competent to good #3 starter in age 20 and 21 seasons and Detroit Tiger fans have a lot to look forward to in the rotation over the next few years. However the #4 and #5 spots in the Detroit rotation are major question marks. Phil Coke makes the move from the bullpen to the rotation. In his two full years in the bullpen with the Yankees and Tigers, Coke has posted xFIPs of 4.13 and 4.40 of course in limited work where his left handedness could be used to exploit platoon splits. Coke was a starter early in his minor league career and if he can provide the Tigers with anything close to his bullpen numbers in the rotation and 150-160 IP they would be overjoyed. The final spot in the rotation will belong to Brad Penny who has either not been very good or hurt the last few seasons. If Penny has found a time machine and can give the Tigers anything close to what he was pre 2008 then the Tigers may end up with a fairly deep and stable rotation. Too many question marks surround this pitching staff and bullpen and several positions on the field to be overly bullish on the Tigers projections, thus the third place finish.

Players to watch: Max Scherzer, Rick Porcello

4) Cleveland Indians (66-96)

Cleveland barely edges out Kansas City for 4th place in the 2011 AL Central because their current roster construction is just a bit better than the Royals. Indians fans do not have a whole lot to look forward to in 2011 and without a lot if any top end of the rotation starters in the high-minors it may be a few years before the Indians are contenders again. All is not lost in Cleveland though. The Indians have a legitimate star in RF in Shin-Soo Choo who has posted back to back 5.0+ WAR seasons and will likely be the team’s representative on the all-star team. Along with Choo in the OF is Grady Sizemore the once budding super-star is attempting a comeback from major knee surgery and expectations should be kept at a minimum until he shows he is healthy. However the biggest reason to watch an Indians game this season is the young catcher Carlos Santana. Buster Posey got all the hype last season and deservedly so, but the Indians had themselves an offensive machine behind the plate for the 46 games he played before a gruesome knee injury ended Santana’s season. Posting 2 WAR, and a .382 wOBA in only 192 PA, the Indians could be looking at the anchor to their next round of rebuilding. Aside from that the Indians don’t look to have much else, the rotation is lead by Fausto Carmona who teases fans with flashes of brilliance and Justin Masterson whom posted a 3.87 xFIP over 180.0 IP proving some of the doubters wrong in 2010.

Players to watch: Grady Sizemore, Matt Laporta, Carlos Santana

5) Kansas City Royals (62-100)

In an offseason where they traded away their best player in Zack Grienke, and had Gil Meche return over $10 million dollars when he decided to retire, gutting an already weak rotation there is reason to be excited for the first time in years. With a deep farm system (for more information click here and here) the Royals will at some point add to their roster this year at least one if not a handful of high end prospects including Mike Montgomery, John Lamb, Mike Moustakas and Eric Hosmer. However with a current roster that includes a rotation of Luke Hochaver, Jeff Francis, Kyle Davies, Bruce Chen and Vin Mazzaro it is very hard to envision the Royals not losing 100 games in 2011 and if they did not call any of those prospects up this year anywhere from 105-110 losses could be on the table. All is not lost on the current major league roster though. Joakim Soria will continue his dominance in the bullpen, Billy Butler will continue to be a very good hitter, Kila Ka’aihue should hit enough this year before being displaced by Hosmer at some point to build up some trade value during the off season and the Royals can hope that Alex Gordon becomes even a fraction of what they once thought he would be.

Players to watch: Alex Gordon, Billy Butler, Any of the Mid-season call ups

White Sox sign Alexei Ramirez kinda long term

February 1, 2011

It’s a 4/$32.5mil deal. So it will run from 2011-2014 and cover his age 29-32 seasons.

I like it, but I don’t like it. The AAV will be about $8.1mil per season. That values him as about a 1.5-2 WAR player.

In 2008, Alexei Ramirez produced just 0.9 fWAR when he was a below average hitter and fielder. Since then he has arguably been the best defensive shortstop in baseball and produced a 2.2 fWAR in 2009 and a 3.8 fWAR in 2010.

Ramirez would have been paid $1.1mil 2011 and then would have been arbitration eligible in 2012 and 2013.

So lets get into it. I think as a whole he will be underpaid. Yes, defense declines with age and this deal does carry him into his 30s. Yes, his value is tied into his defense, so if it slips he is no longer valuable or that good of a player. But he is projected by the fans to have a 3.4 fWAR in 2011 and being conservative, with okay defense and below average offense, Ramirez should still be worth 2-2.5 WAR, which means he is worth more than the $8.1mil he will be paid.

HOWEVER…he would have made $1.1mil in 2011 as previously mentioned. I also don’t think he would have sniffed $8mil in arbitration. He might have come close, but $8mil for a player who hit .282/.313/.431 in a full season last year seems a bit much considering teams and arbiters probably do not use advanced stats in negotiations. Using the similarity score on B-R, Ramirez was linked to Yunel Escobar and Erick Aybar. Escobar, like Ramirez, is entering his fourth big league season, and in my opinion and according to stats, is a better player. He settled for $2.9mil and even with pay increases in 2012 and 2013, it seems unlikely Escobar- the better player- will reach $8mil through arbitration. Erick Aybar is a fifth year player and settled for $3mil.

So yeah, compared to similar players, who are younger, it looks like the White Sox are overpaying Ramirez compared to what they could have paid to sign him long term.

Granted, they might save some money in 2014 when Ramirez was headed to free agency, but how much would he have honestly made? He would be turning 33, his offense would presumably be even worse, and his defense should be on the decline. Even with inflation, I didn’t see Ramirez getting more than $10mil in 2014.

So…for his relative value, yeah, the White Sox are underpaying him slightly. But considering they could have kept his services through 2013, and maybe even beyond, for less money, I think it’s a bad deal.

I also don’t like going long term on players like Ramirez. His value is tied up in his position/defense and if his defense falters, he’s done. And $8mil will be a lot to pay a black hole if that happens.

 

Busy day in Chicago; Cubs sign Carlos Pena and White Sox sign Paul Konerko

December 8, 2010

The North side and South side both signed first basemen last night. Carlos Pena is going to the Cubs at 1/$10mil and Konerko is re-upping with the White Sox at 3/$37.5mil.

Let’s start with the North side deal because there is almost nothing to talk about. They need a first baseman. Carlos Pena is a first baseman. They signed him. Pena will be 33 years old and with aging is just an above average first baseman. Nothing special. He had an unusually poor 2010, mainly because he hit a ton of grounders. 44.9% of his balls in play were ground balls, well above his career average of 36.9%. So while his insanely low BABIP of .227 suggests bad luck, he also just didn’t swing the bat as well. He still has power- his ISO was above .200 and his HR/FB was above his career norm. He still walks a fair amount. But he didn’t hit enough line drives and power fly balls. If he can get his swing back, he should improve upon his 2010 numbers, but not too drastically. So he should be about a 2 WAR and be worth around $10mil. So it’s a solid deal for the Cubs. They won’t contend in 2011 so you can debate whether it was worth it to spend $10mil on Pena, but it’s “only” $10mil and it’s only one year. The Cubs DO need someone to play the position, so they went out and got a short term fix that won’t constrain them down the road.

The South Side deal is more noteworthy. Konerko will be getting an average salary of $12.5mil per year. Color me unimpressed. Konerko will be 35 next season, 36 in 2012, and 37 in 2013. Yet he will be paid $12.5mil. This seems like an irresponsible waste of money to me. They just signed another 1b/DH type player in Adam Dunn just a few days ago. Konerko was not needed. This also hurts Dunn’s value if they make him DH or play OF, making that deal much more of an overpay as well. But that’s besides the point. Konerko is OLD. Yes, he had a 160 wRC+ last season. But that’s an anomaly. Check out his wRC+’s from 2007-2009: 114, 106, 119. Yeah. But his BABIP was well above his career norms despite a LD% that is in line with his career average. So we should expect less fortune in 2011, which means less times on base, less extra base hits, and less offensive production, which in turn means less value. Being generous, I can start him at 2.5 in 2011. By 2013 he will be a 1.5 WAR player. So I have him being worth $29.5mil over three years. OVERPAY.

So that’s it.

I also really want the Yankees to sign Russell Martin. He would be a good catcher to split time with Jesus Montero on the cheap. Best case scenario he finds himself offensively and returns to being a 4-5 WAR player. Also, signing him would open up the possibility of trading Jesus Montero for Zack Greinke, leaving Martin as the starter until Austin Romine is ready. 1/$4mil with a club option for 2012? Please think about it Cashman.

Chicago White sign Adam Dunn

December 2, 2010

In baseball’s big news of the day, the White Sox have signed slugger Adam Dunn to a 4/$56mil deal. Dunn will be paid $14mil per yer through his age 31-34 seasons.

Dunn is a fantastic hitter who has lost a lot of value over the years because of atrocious defense. But now it appears that Dunn has accepted the fact he is better suited at first base or DH, rather than the outfield. In the end, that could save him some value, although the DH penalty is still severe enough that he needs to hit no matter where he plays to have any significant value.

The contract will cover Dunn’s early 30s, which could have no impact or a negative impact. Players do get worse as they age, but age 31-34 isn’t so old anymore. He should still be able to mash the ball and the age won’t impact his defense if he is at DH or 1b. However, his body type usually does not age well. Again though, 31-34 isn’t that old anymore, so we might not see his decline just yet.

Dunn will be going into a homer haven, much like the one he played in during his Cincy years. That could possibly boost his numbers, at least at home. In the end though, analyzing Dunn is tricky. He has been a consistent, great hitter over the course of his career. He shows no sign of decline, except for age. But we do know that his body type does decline earlier than most and we don’t know how he will react if he becomes a hit only player in Chicago.

I started Dunn out at 3 WAR and decreased it by 0.5 each season as he gets older. In the end, using my estimates, the White Sox will overpay for Dunn by a total of $10mil, or $2.5mil per season. That’s a fair amount, but it’s not that bad. Moreover, it’s possible Dunn does continue to hit well and outperforms my predictions. I ran this with him producing total WAR’s of 10.5 and 11, each of which brought him closer to the $56mil salary he is being given. Moreover, Chicago has been dying for a power hitting lefty for sometime now. He is a great addition to the lineup, so he could be worth more than his projected $46mil value to Chicago. The White Sox figure to build teams that will contend each season, so Dunn should be worth more to them than to the Kansas City Royals, for example.

This may have been a slight reach for Chicago, but they get the player they want at a decent price and Dunn gets his money.

 

The trades continue: Edwin Jackson traded to Chicago White Sox

July 30, 2010

Edwin Jackson will be joining his fourth team in three years as the Arizona Diamondbacks traded him to the Chicago White Sox for prospects Dan Hudson and David Holmberg.

I am not a fan of this for Chicago, if this is the only move they make. Edwin Jackson is an above average pitcher. After struggling to live up to his talent and potential for years, he finally put things together last season in Detroit, where he had a 4.28 FIP, 4.39 xFIP, and 3.5 WAR, while throwing a career high 214 innings. And although his ERA has skyrocketed in the desert, Jackson has had an equally good year so far with an identical FIP and xFIP of 4.27.

But Jackson is not a special pitcher. He has an average K rate that’s been below seven K’s per nine for three consecutive years now, and his BB rate isn’t anything special. Moreover, he is prone to the long ball, which won’t fare well in Chicago. US Cellular Field has the highest HR park factor in baseball at 1.626, compared to Arizona’s Chase Field park factor of 1.121. In fact, one would have to go all the way back to 2002 to find the last time US Cellular wasn’t in the top four when it comes to HR park factor.

Down the stretch, his FIP is projected to be 4.16 which his current mark. I’d imagine he will produce one win of value for the Sox down the stretch. He is also under contract for $8.35mil next year and at the age of 27 if he has a similar season to the past two years- we’ll say 3.5 WAR- then he’ll be worth $15.4mil in 2011. Between 2010 and 2011 that brings his value to $16.4. However, if you subtract the money he is owed, Jackson walks away with a net value of about $7mil.

In my estimation, that’s an optimistic projection for Jackson, simply because of the park he is going to. In 2009 he broke out, but he did pitch in Comerica, a pitchers park. Yes, I know Chase is a hitter’s park as well and he’s done a decent job there this season, but US Cellular is a step above Chase. For a pitcher like Jackson, he could be killed by the fact runs, homers, doubles, and walks all go up in Cellular Field.

As for the D-Backs return, they got a nice arm in Dan Hudson. I know in 34 professional innings he has stunk, but that’s just it- 34 innings. As we all know if you’re reading this blog, 34 innings is a mega SSS. Hudson was the #3 prospect in Chicago’s system according to BA, and they also said he had the best slider and control in their farm system. Moreover, they also ranked him as the 66th best prospect in baseball and labeled his best tool as command. So it seems as if he is someone who will have a low BB rate in their career. If so, then it’s more evidence that the 11 BB he’s given up in 15 ML innings this season can be attributed to a SSS. Hudson is a big time strikeout pitcher with over a K per inning in his MiLB career and he doesn’t walk too many batters nor does he give up too many home runs. Factor in that he will be under team control for FIVE more years after 2010 and it’s easy to see why he would have a lot of value. If we label him a top fifty pitching prospect, he would be worth about $15-$16mil in value.

The White Sox also gave up a nineteen year old pitching prospect, taken in the second round of last year’s draft, and someone who was already rated the eighth best prospect in the Sox system.

So as it stands right now, I’d say the White Sox got fleeced. They gave up five controlled years of a real good pitching prospect and another prospect, for a year and two months of a decent starting pitcher. Moreover, Jackson won’t terribly help the Sox down the stretch, especially since he may not even perform better than Hudson going forward in 2010 (and 2011 to boot). In fact, Jackson might not even pitch in October should the Sox get there, if they go with a three man rotation of Gavin Floyd, John Danks, and Mark Buehrle.

HOWEVER, there is a strong feeling that Jackson could be flipped for Adam Dunn. Adam Dunn would help the White Sox a lot more than Edwin Jackson or Dan Hudson, especially since their lineup is a bigger area of concern than their rotation. While Dunn would only be in Chicago for two months, a whole year less than Jackson will be, he would also net the White Sox two draft picks. In a loaded 2011 draft, the Sox might value those two picks and what Dunn will bring in 2010, more than Hudson and Holmberg. And that is a fair thought process for Kenny Williams to have.

So…if Jackson stays in Chicago, it’s a win-lose in favor of Arizona. If Jackson is flipped for Adam Dunn, then I would call it a win-win.

And real quick, lets look the D-Backs. They got Jackson and Ian Kennedy for Max Scherzer and Dan Schlereth. In turn, they got Dan Hudson and David Holmberg for Jackson. So that’s Scherzer and Schlereth out, IPK, Holmberg, and Hudson in. At the end of the day, that’s not too bad.

Gavin Floyd coming into his own

July 6, 2010

As the Chicago White Sox continue their surge to the top of the AL Central, their staff is headlined by Mark Buehrle and Jake Peavy. But it’s one of their lesser known starters, Gavin Floyd, who is doing the heavy lifting in their very balanced rotation.

Ever since his first season in the Windy City back in 2007, Floyd has steadily improved each year. His K’s have trended up, his BB’s have trended down, his HR rate has gone down each season, and so has his FIP.

2008 was his first full season in Chicago and over 206 innings he had a 4.77 FIP, 4.56 xFIP, and 5.08 tERA to go along with a 6.32 K/9, 3.05 BB/9, and 1.31 HR/9. Not bad, but far from good- obviously surrendering 30 home runs doesn’t help any pitcher. In 2009, he threw 193 innings to the tune of a 3.77 FIP, 3.69 xFIP, 4.53 tERA, 7.60 K/9, 2.75 BB/9, and 0.98 HR/9. That is much better. He increased strike outs, walked less people, and allowed fewer home runs. When a pitcher does that, naturally they will have a better season. And in 103 innings this season, he has continued to get better.

His 7.47 K/9 and 2.78 BB/9 are consistent with 2009, but he has allowed even fewer long balls this season with a 0.61 HR/9. The result is a 3.37 FIP, 3.76 xFIP, and 3.62 tERA. For those keeping score, that’s three successive seasons where Floyd has lowered his FIP and tERA, while his xFIP has dropped more than half a run from 2008 to 2009 and 2010.

What’s the biggest difference for Floyd? The amount of fly balls he gives up. Back in 2008 when he was giving up a lot of homers, his FB% was 39.7%. That’s not exceptionally high, but his HR/FB% was 17.7%. Going back further, in 2007 his FB% was 40.9% and his HR/FB% was 19.7%. Ouch. In 2009 though, he lowered his FB% to 33.2% and naturally his HR/FB% dropped to 11.2%. This season his FB% is a career low 30.8% and his HR/FB is also a career low 7.3%. At the expense of fly balls, Floyd has got batters to hit more grounders the past two seasons (44.3% in 2009 and 51.3% in 2010), which can explain his solid numbers in 2009 and 2010.

Additionally, his uptick in K’s the past two years can be traced to the fact hitters make less contact off him. Back in 2008, his Contact% was 81.7%, but that number dropped to 77.8% in 2009 and 75.5% in 2010. The type of pitches that hitters were connecting on were pitches outside the zone, where Floyd gave up contact 62.3% of the time. In 2010 he gives up contact on pitches outside the zone 56.1% of the time.

The reason for Floyd’s emergence is clear- more strikeouts and less fly balls (and thus less homers). In other words, he has gotten better at the things a pitcher can control. When you do that, you’re going to become a good pitcher. And that is exactly what Floyd has become.

At just twenty-seven, Floyd is coming into his own. He might not be a shutdown ace- yet- but the White Sox have a very good pitcher entering his prime seasons.