Posted tagged ‘Jason Heyward’

MLB award winners

November 7, 2010

Sorry for the delayed post on this topic, but without further ado here are my picks for the 2010 MLB awards.

AL MVP- Josh Hamilton (.359/.411/.633/.447/182, 571 PA, 7.0 aWAR)

Hamilton was just too dominant. I concentrated on WAR to figure out my MVP, along with several other factors. Since there are two versions of WAR, I got the average of rWAR and fWAR, which is what Tom Tango recommends. On here I pretty much use only fWAR, but for better analysis, I found the average of two versions this time around. While Hamilton didn’t look at hot with rWAR as he did with fWAR, his average was still the best and I put more stock in fWAR. Granted he missed a month, a month in which he could have slumped. But it also could have been his best month. He put up an insane .447 wOBA with positive defensive value playing center field. That’s an MVP to me.

Runner-ups: 2) Evan Longoria 3)Adrian Beltre 4) Robinson Cano 5) Miguel Cabrera

NL MVP- Joey Votto (.324/.424/.600/.439/177, 648 PA, 6.8 aWAR)

Offensively, Votto was nearly the Josh Hamilton of the NL. He absolutely killed the ball en route to leading the Reds to the NL Central division. Now, while his fWAR bested Albert Pujols, his rWAR was a full win behind Pujols, giving Pujols a better aWAR. However, the difference was due to difference in defensive metrics. According to fWAR, Votto was a slightly better hitter and they were equal defenders. According to rWAR,they were equal offensively, but Pujols was much better defensively.With SSS issues of defensive metrics and the difference in defensive metrics used in each version of WAR, I feel more comfortable saying Votto had the better year.

Runner-ups: 2) Albert Pujols 3) Ryan Zimmerman 4) Matt Holliday 5) Troy Tulowitzki

AL Cy Young- Felix Hernandez (249 IP, 3.04 FIP, 3.26 xFIP, 6.1 aWAR)

For most of the season I had Francisco Liriano as my Cy Young winner. But he got kind of ill in September and faltered a little bit while Felix picked up steam. I feel bad knocking Liriano for that, but he made the starts and wasn’t his usual self. So be it. Hernandez was a boss, leading the league in innings and excelling in all the things a pitcher can control- K, BB, HR allowed.

Runner Ups- 2) Cliff Lee 3) Francisco Liriano 4) Jered Weaver 5) Jon Lester

NL Cy Young- Roy Halladay (250 IP, 3.01 FIP, 2.92 xFIP, 6.9 aWAR)

This one is not even a contest. Halladay arguably had his best season as a professional, leading the league in innings and WAR. Looking at all his full seasons, he posted the best K/9 of his career and tied his best BB/9 at 1.08 walks per nine. He absolutely destroyed the National League.

Runner-ups- 2) Josh Johnson 3) Ubaldo Jiminez 4) Adam Wainwright 5) Roy Oswalt

AL Rookie of the Year- Austin Jackson (.293/.345/.400/.333/108, 675 PA, 3.1 aWAR)

While some people  might pick Neftali Feliz, I think Austin Jackson is a no-brainer. He played a more valuable position, was an above-average hitter and played superb defense. Putting up a 3.7 fWAR as a rookie is impressive. Jackson will be a solid player for Detroit for a long time. Also, if he didn’t get hurt, Caros Santana probably would have won the award. But he was called up late, and then missed a lot of time because of his injury. I put him at #5 anyway just to recognize him.

Runner-ups- 2) Brian Matusz 3) Neftali Feliz 4) John Jaso 5) Carlos Santana

NL Rookie of the Year- Jason Heyward (.277/.393/.456/.376/138, 623 PA, 4.7 aWAR)

Jason. Heyward. Is. A. Beast. I mean for real. He was twenty years and almost put up a .400 OBP in a full season. He had 91 BB despite spending some time on the DL. The dood can hit- and field. It was tempting to pick Posey, especially after watching his postseason, but Heyward had nearly 200 more PA in the regular season and was amazing in his own right. The NL rookie class had to have been one of the best ever.

Runner-ups- 2) Buster Posey 3) Jaime Garcia 4) Mike Stanton 5) Stephen Strasburg

AL Comeback Player of the Year- Colby Lewis (201 IP, 3.55 FIP, 3.93 xFIP, 4.0 aWAR)

In a tightly contested race, Lewis just edges Francisco Liriano. Yes, Liriano had a better season. BUT I find Lewis’ comeback more amazing- and he still had a fantastic season. Sure Liriano hasn’t been relevant since 2006, but Lewis pitched in JAPAN for the past two seasons. At least Liriano was hurt and fiddling around in America.

Runner-ups- 2) Francisco Liriano 3) Vernon Wells 4) Paul Konerko 5) Alex Rios

NL Comeback Player of the Year- Aubrey Huff (.290/.385/.506/.388/145, 668 PA, 5.8 aWAR)

Call this the Year of the Comeback. Much like the AL, there was an abundance of comeback players to choose from. Of all  my picks, this one was one of the toughest. But Huff had the best years of the players I narrowed it down to, and he had the worst performance of anyway in 2009. So he slides in perfectly as the winner.

Runner-ups- 2) Brett Myers 3) Anibal Sanchez 4) Kelly Johnson 5) Rickie Weeks

AL Most Improved/Breakout Player of the Year- Jose Bautista (.260/.378/.617/.422/169, 683 PA, 6.3 aWAR)

I think this one is a no-doubter. Jose Bautista went from a utility-role player to mashing 54 home runs. His WAR reached MVP level. Using fWAR, he bested his previous WAR high of 1.9 by five wins. Wowzers.

Runner-ups- 2) Daric Barton 3) Brett Gardner 4) CJ Wilson 5) David Price

NL Most Improved/Breakout Player of the Year- Andres Torres (.268/.343/.479/.363/128, 570 PA, 5.3 aWAR)

There were a ton of breakout players, but Andres Torres had the biggest breakout. He debuted in 2002 from 2002 through 2005 he never posted a fWAR above 0. Then he went to the minors from 2006 through 2008. He posted a 2.0 WAR last year in 75 games, but really broke out this season with a 6.0 fWAR. He hit well and was a monster of a fielder. Three players I want to mention for improving, but who didn’t even make my top five are Chris Young, Martin Prado, and Omar Infante.

Runner-ups- 2) Jay Bruce 3) Angel Pagan 4) Stephen Drew 5) Chase Headley

AL Relief Pitcher of the Year- Joakim Soria (65 IP, 2.53 FIP, 2.99 xFIP, 2.1 WAR, 2.18 pLI)

Joakim Soria did his best Mariano Rivera performance this season. Not only was he among the leaders in FIP, xFIP, and WAR, but he had the highest leverage index of the players I narrowed my search down to, meaning he performed like a beast in tougher situations than the other candidates for the award. He simply was the best reliever in the AL.

Runner-ups- 2) Matt Thornton 3) Mariano Rivera 4) Neftali Feliz 5) Rafael Soriano

NL Relief Pitcher of the Year- Carlos Marmol (77 IP, 2.01 FIP, 2.95 xFIP, 3.1 WAR, 2.04 pLI)

There were a ton of great relievers in the NL this season. Brian Wilson, Heath Bell, Matt Belisle, etc. But Marmol was the most dominant. His K/9 was 15.99. You read that right. 15.99. Sure, he walked more than five batters per nine, but chances are he would strike out the side before he would walk in a run. His K-BB was a +86. Brian Wilson had 93 STRIKEOUTS. And Marmol’s K-BB was 86. Simply amazing. Plus, he was among the leaders in pLI.

Runner-ups- 2) Brian Wilson 3) Heath Bell 4) John Axford 5) Matt Belisle

AL Silver Slugger Awards-

C- Joe Mauer (.327/.402/.469/.373/136)

1B- Miguel Cabrera (.328/.420/.622/.429/172)

2B- Robinson Cano (.319/.381/.534/.389/145)

3B- Adrian Beltre (.321/.365/.553/.390/143)

SS- Alexei Ramirez (.282/.313/.431/.322/97)

OF- Josh Hamilton (.359/.411/.633/.447/183)*

OF- Jose Bautista (.260/.378/.617/.422/169)

OF- Shin-soo Choo (.300/.401/.384/.388/147)

DH- Luke Scott (.284/.368/.535/.387/143)

* AL Offensive Player of the Year

NL Silver Slugger Awards-

C- Brian McCann (.269/.375/.453/.361/128)

1B- Joey Votto (.324/.424/.600/.439/177)*

2B- Dan Uggla (.287/.369/.508/.381/140)

3B- Ryan Zimmerman (.307/.388/.510/.389/146)

SS- Troy Tulowitzki (.315./.381/.568/.408/150)

OF- Carlos Gonzalez (.336/.376/.598/.416/155)

OF- Jayson Werth (.296/.388/.532/.397/150)

OF- Matt Holliday (.312/.390/.532/.396/153)

P- Yovanni Gallardo (.254/.329/.508/.363/130)

* NL Offensive Player of the Year

AL Gold Glove Awards-

C- Matt Weiters (1060 innings/5 DRS/13 FSR)

1B- Daric Barton (1331 innings/20 DRS/5 FSR/12.1 UZR)

2B- Robinson Cano (1393 innings/7 DRS/10 FSR/-0.6 UZR)

3B- Evan Longoria (1330 innings/15 DRS/20 FSR/11.1 UZR)

SS- Alexei Ramirez (1376 innings/16 DRS/12 FSR/10.8 UZR)

OF- Brett Gardner (1211 innings/16 DRS/12 FSR/21.9 UZR)

OF- Carl Crawford (1260 innings/14 DRS/15 FSR/18.5 UZR)

OF- Ichiro Suzuki (1411 innings/12 DRS/15 FSR/14.8 UZR)

P- Mark Buehrle

NL Gold Glove Awards-

C- Yadier Molina (1138 innings/6 DRS/19 FSR)

1B- Ike Davis (1263 innings/13 DRS/3 FSR/10.1 UZR)

2B- Brandon Phillips (1311 innings/0 DRS/18 FSR/9.7 UZR)

3B- Ryan Zimmerman (1189 innings/20 DRS/16 FSR/13.9 UZR)

SS- Brendan Ryan (1127 innings/27 DSR/11 FSR/11.5 UZR)

OF- Andres Torres (1120 innings/12 DRS/10 FSR/21.2 UZR)

OF- Jay Bruce (1199 innings/17 DRS/9 FSR/20.2 UZR)

OF- Michael Bourn (1189 innings/16 DRS/8 FSR/17.6 UZR)

P- Tim Hudson

Click here to see how we did on our pre-season award predictions!



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The “J-Hey Kid”

May 26, 2010

Per fangraphs:

Mel Ott, 1929: .328/.449/.635, 172 wRC+
Alex Rodriguez, 1996: .358/.414/.631, 169 wRC+
Ted Williams, 1939: .327/.436/.609, 168 wRC+
Al Kaline, 1955: .340/.421/.546, 160 wRC+
Frank Robinson, 1956: .290/.379/.558, 149 wRC+
Mickey Mantle, 1952: .311/.394/.530, 166 wRC+

In the history of baseball, those are the six seasons where a player has posted an OPS over .900 as a 20-year-old. Of those six players, five are in the hall of fame, and the other guy will be when he’s done playing.

To say that Jason Heyward is putting himself in some pretty impressive company might be the understatement of the year. And yet, here he is, a 20-year-old rookie putting up a .290/.409/.580 line for the season (166 wRC+), and showing absolutely no signs of slowing down.

In April, Heyward flashed some greatness but also looked young and inexperienced. He struck out 26 times in 89 trips to the plate, and while the walks and home runs still made him a valuable player, there was a pretty easy path to getting him out.

In May, he has 70 plate appearances and just five strikeouts. He hasn’t lost any aggressiveness, as he’s still drawn 12 walks, and his power is still there, as 10 of his 20 hits have gone for extra bases. In his second month in the big leagues, he’s hitting .357/.471/.661, good for a .481 wOBA.

Seriously, just lock him up. “Evan Longoria” him and sign Heyward to a 10 year deal this week. Two months is a SSS, but I think it’s safe to say the dood is going to be GOLD. Gold Jerry, gold.

Ha, hope you got the last reference. Although I ruined it by pointing it out. Oh well.

PS- How awesome is this photo?

Jason Heyward’s Rapid Maturation

May 13, 2010

After struggling the first month of the season, Heyward has been as good as anyone so far in the month of May. Having the luxury of being able to watch him daily, I have noticed that he has been able to lay of sliders outside of the zone as well as breaking pitches below the zone. This is something that he was not able to do in the first month of the season. In April, Heyward struck out 34.7% of the time and walked only 14.6% of the time. So far in May, he has struck out only 5.6% of the time and walked 25.9% of the time. However, at the same time he has been a bit more aggressive. When he gets a good pitch to hit early in counts, he will usually take it. Heyward is seeing 4.47 pitches per plate appearance which is well above the league average of 3.86.

As a result, Heyward’s overall production has been much better. His May wOBA and RC+ are .675 and 329 respectively compared to .385 and 139 in April.

The changeup and slider are two pitches that gave Heyward a great deal of trouble in the first month of the season. Lets look at how Heyward has adjusted to these pitches so far in the month of May.

Changeup (April): seen 13% of the time, swung at 61% of the time, whiffed 30% of the time

Changeup (May): seen seen 18% of the time, swung at 45.5% of the time, whiffed 13.6% of the time

Slider (April): seen 16.6% of the time, swung at 42% of the time, whiffed 8.7% of the time

Slider (May): seen 15% of the time, swung at 44.4% of the time, whiffed 5.6% of the time

So as you can see Heyward is obviously adjusting to the changeup much better. He is seeing a higher dose of changes and hes whiffing less. Despite swinging at a higher percentage of sliders, he is whiffing less. I was looking at some pitch f/x graphs earlier and I noticed that Heyward has swung at pitches closer to the strike zone in general compared to the April graph. Of course, this months graph has a smaller sample but there is a noticeable difference.

Both months swing pitch graphs can be found here:
http://pitchfx.texasleaguers.com/batter/518792/?pitchers=A&count=AA&pitches=AA&from=4%2F1%2F2010&to=4%2F30%2F2010
http://pitchfx.texasleaguers.com/batter/518792/

Is it a small sample size? Sure. But is Heyward adjusting rapidly to major league pitching? Absolutely.

4PARL 2010 PREDICTION BONANZA!

March 31, 2010

Well, April 4th and the start of the 2010 season is just days away. There are more hours of daylight, flowers are starting to bloom, players are wrapping up their Spring Training regimen, teams are making their final roster decisions, and vendors are preparing their popcorn bags.  Regular season baseball is already upon us. Huzzah! Huzzah!

Okay, enough of that. Like most people, we here at 4PARL have predictions and guesses for the upcoming season. Not projections because we’re not a cool enough blog. Just our predictions based off projections and gut instincts. ENJOY OUR PREDICTION BONANZA!

Playoffs:

Disco-

Yankees over Rangers
Red Sox over Twins
Yankees over Red Sox

Phillies over Rockies
Cardinals over Braves
Cardinals over Phillies

Yankees over Cardinals

ES42-

Yankees over Rangers
Red Sox over Twins
Yankees over Red Sox

Phillies over Cardinals
Rockies over Braves
Phillies over Rockies

Yankees over Phillies

10th batter-

Red Sox over Twins
Yankees over Angels
Yankees over Red Sox

Phillies over Cardinals
Rockies over Braves
Rockies over Phillies

Yankees over Phillies

Twaco-

Yankees over Rangers
Red Sox over White Sox
Yankees over Red Sox

Phillies over Rockies
Dodgers over Cardinals
Phillies over Dodgers

Yankees over Phillies

YC-

Yankees over Rangers
Red Sox over Twins
Yankees over Red Sox

Cardinals over Dodgers
Rockies over Phillies
Cardinals over Rockies

Yankees over Cardinals

JeffMac-

Yankees over Twins
Red Sox over Mariners
Red Sox over Yankees

Phillies over Dodgers
Cardinals over Braves
Phillies over Cardinals

Red Sox over Phillies

Dougbies-

Yankees over White Sox
Red Sox over Mariners
Yankees over Red Sox

Rockies over Marlins
Phillies over Cardinals
Rockies over Phillies

Yankees over Rockies

MVP:

Disco- Mark Teixeira/Chase Utley

ES42- Alex Rodriguez/Albert Pujols

10thbatter- Evan Longoria and Chase Utley

Twaco- Evan Longoria/Albert Pujols

YC- Alex Rodriguez/Hanley Ramirez

JeffMac- Alex Rodriguez/Hanley Ramirez

Dougbies- Alex Rodriguez/Albert Pujols

Cy Young

Disco- CC Sabathia/Roy Halladay

ES42- Jon Lester/Roy Halladay

10thbatter- CC Sabathia/ Roy Halladay

Twaco- Felix Hernandez/Tim Lincecum

YC- Jon Lester/Roy Halladay

JeffMac- Felix Hernandez/Roy Halladay

Dougbies- CC Sabathia/Tim Lincecum

Rookie of Year:

Disco- Scott Sizemore/Ian Kennedy

ES42- Carlos Santana/Jason Heyward

10thbatter- Brian Matusz/Jason Heyward

Twaco- Desmond Jennings/Jason Heyward

YC- Austin Jackson/Jason Heyward

JeffMac- Scott Sizemore/Kyle Blanks

Dougbies- Wade Davis/Drew Storen

Comeback Player of Year:

Disco- Alexis Rios/Rickie Weeks

ES42- BJ Upton/Jose Reyes

10thbatter- Francisco Liriano/Geovany Soto

Twaco- BJ Upton/David Wright

YC- BJ Upton/David Wright

JeffMac- Dice-BB/Jeff Francis

Dougbies- Vernon Wells/Chris Young (ARI)

Relief Pitcher of Year:

Disco- Jon Papelbon/Trevor Hoffman

ES42- Mariano Rivera/Jon Broxton

10thbatter- Mariano Rivera/Jon Broxton

Twaco- Mariano Rivera/Jon Broxton

YC- Mariano Rivera/Jon Broxton

JeffMac- Jon Papelbon/Jon Broxton

Dougbies- Rafael Soriano/Jon Broxton

Offensive Player of Year:

Disco- Miguel Cabrera/Albert Pujols

ES42- Alex Rodriguez/Albert Pujols

10thbatter- Evan Longoria/Albert Pujols

Twaco- Evan Longoria/Albert Pujols

YC- Joe Mauer/Albert Pujols

JeffMac- Alex Rodriguez/Albert Pujols

Dougbies- Alex Rodriguez/Albert Pujols

Defensive Player of Year:

Disco- Franlin Guitierrez/Nyjer Morgan

ES42- Evan Longoria/Ryan Zimmerman

10thbatter- Elvis Andrus/Ryan Zimmerman

Twaco- Franklin Guitierrez/Ryan Zimmerman

YC- Franklin Guitierrez/Matt Kemp

JeffMac- Elvis Andrus/Justin Upton

Dougbies- Franlink Guitierrez/Ryan Zimmerman

Breakout Player of Year:

Disco- Sean Rodriguez/Clayton Kershaw

ES42- Elvis Andrus/Casey McGhee

10thbatter- Brettt Anderson/Joey Votto

Twaco- Elvis Andrus/Ricky Nolasco

YC- Ryan Sweeney/Yunel Escobar

JeffMac- Alex Gordon/Jon Sanchez

Dougbies- Matt Weiters/Colby Rasmus

Players to Watch:

Disco- Felix Hernandez/Justin Upton

ES42- Matt Weiters/Justin Upton

10thbattter- Jake Peavy/Clayton Kershaw

Twaco- Brett Gardner/Seth Smith

YC- Justin Verlander/Troy Tulowitzki

JeffMac- Matt Garza/John Maine

Dougbies- Matt Weiters/Ubaldo Jiminez

BOLD ASS PREDICTIONS:

Disco-

-Reds win the Wild Card

-A’s win the AL West

-Grady Sizemore joins the 40/40 club

– Cliff Lee posts a 3.75+ ERA

– Jon Lester becomes the best lefty in baseball (not so bold, but a prediction nonetheless)

-Twins make the World Series

-Diamondbacks make the World Series

ES42-

-Beltran will get traded after having a good May/June/July
-Rockies finish with best record in the National League

10thbatter-

– Brett Anderson finishes in the top 5 in AL Cy Young voting
– Evan Longoria hits 45+ homers
– B.J. Upton goes for 30/30

Twaco-

-Jesus Montero will win AL ROY
-Ricky Nolasco will win NL Cy Young
-Marlins will win NL East

YC-

-Francisco Liriano will have a mid 2 ERA
-Ryan Sweeney will have a 5.0 WAR season due to defense
-Michael Bourn will steal 70 bases

JeffMac-

-Kyle Blanks trumps Jason Heyward in most stat categories
-Matt Garza wins the AL Cy Young
-The Rockies miss the playoffs
-Mike Cameron hits .260 w/30 HR
-The Chicago Cubs win the NL pennant

Dougbies-

-Wieters finished 2010 with a higher WAR than Mauer
-Reds win more games than Cubs in 2010
-Rockies make the World Series
-Phil Hughes is Yankees third best starter in 2010
-Ichiro/Figgins combine to steal 100+ bags