Posted tagged ‘Jayson Werth’

Jayson Werth is a Washington National

December 5, 2010

In what has to be the most surprising news of the off-season, the Washington Nationals have signed Jayson Werth to a 7/$126mil contract. WOW.

This is totally out of nowhere. I really thought Werth would be headed to Detroit, Boston, or stay in Philly. If you recall, I had Werth worth about $99mil over five years. When I project it out further, I think he’ll be worth about $121mil over seven years. So the Nationals are overpaying a little bit. But not by much.

For Washington, I love the move, but hate the contract details. They are relatively close to contending so I like that they are trying to make a splash and bring in a quality player. It keeps the fans happy and makes the current team better as they wait for Strasburg to get healthy and Bryce Harper to develop. BUT, seven years is a long time. By the time the Nationals young talent is ready to aim for a playoff spot, Werth figures to be done as a high impact player. Once those days are over, he will be vastly overpaid for his talent and the contract will handcuff the franchise.

So I give the contract a C+ for the team. They do get better and bring excitement back to the ball club, but by binding themselves to Werth for so long, it could hinder their ability to make moves in the future, which is when they are going to want to make moves as their young talent will be ready for lift-off.Moreover, this seemingly takes them out of the running for Cliff Lee so it appears that FA battle will be a showdown between the Yankees and Rangers.

As for Werth…I’m surprised. I would have thought he would want to go to a team where he could win the World Series. Boston, Philly, or even Los Angeles and San Francisco. But money speaks and more importantly, I take it he likes the security of seven years. But where is the loyalty these days? Juan Uribe went to Los Angeles just weeks after winning in San Fran and now a Phillies favorite is going to a divisional foe. I remember the story of Jackie Robinson retiring because he was traded to the Giants from the Dodgers. Nowadays, players would welcome the trade with open arms.

 

MLB award winners

November 7, 2010

Sorry for the delayed post on this topic, but without further ado here are my picks for the 2010 MLB awards.

AL MVP- Josh Hamilton (.359/.411/.633/.447/182, 571 PA, 7.0 aWAR)

Hamilton was just too dominant. I concentrated on WAR to figure out my MVP, along with several other factors. Since there are two versions of WAR, I got the average of rWAR and fWAR, which is what Tom Tango recommends. On here I pretty much use only fWAR, but for better analysis, I found the average of two versions this time around. While Hamilton didn’t look at hot with rWAR as he did with fWAR, his average was still the best and I put more stock in fWAR. Granted he missed a month, a month in which he could have slumped. But it also could have been his best month. He put up an insane .447 wOBA with positive defensive value playing center field. That’s an MVP to me.

Runner-ups: 2) Evan Longoria 3)Adrian Beltre 4) Robinson Cano 5) Miguel Cabrera

NL MVP- Joey Votto (.324/.424/.600/.439/177, 648 PA, 6.8 aWAR)

Offensively, Votto was nearly the Josh Hamilton of the NL. He absolutely killed the ball en route to leading the Reds to the NL Central division. Now, while his fWAR bested Albert Pujols, his rWAR was a full win behind Pujols, giving Pujols a better aWAR. However, the difference was due to difference in defensive metrics. According to fWAR, Votto was a slightly better hitter and they were equal defenders. According to rWAR,they were equal offensively, but Pujols was much better defensively.With SSS issues of defensive metrics and the difference in defensive metrics used in each version of WAR, I feel more comfortable saying Votto had the better year.

Runner-ups: 2) Albert Pujols 3) Ryan Zimmerman 4) Matt Holliday 5) Troy Tulowitzki

AL Cy Young- Felix Hernandez (249 IP, 3.04 FIP, 3.26 xFIP, 6.1 aWAR)

For most of the season I had Francisco Liriano as my Cy Young winner. But he got kind of ill in September and faltered a little bit while Felix picked up steam. I feel bad knocking Liriano for that, but he made the starts and wasn’t his usual self. So be it. Hernandez was a boss, leading the league in innings and excelling in all the things a pitcher can control- K, BB, HR allowed.

Runner Ups- 2) Cliff Lee 3) Francisco Liriano 4) Jered Weaver 5) Jon Lester

NL Cy Young- Roy Halladay (250 IP, 3.01 FIP, 2.92 xFIP, 6.9 aWAR)

This one is not even a contest. Halladay arguably had his best season as a professional, leading the league in innings and WAR. Looking at all his full seasons, he posted the best K/9 of his career and tied his best BB/9 at 1.08 walks per nine. He absolutely destroyed the National League.

Runner-ups- 2) Josh Johnson 3) Ubaldo Jiminez 4) Adam Wainwright 5) Roy Oswalt

AL Rookie of the Year- Austin Jackson (.293/.345/.400/.333/108, 675 PA, 3.1 aWAR)

While some people  might pick Neftali Feliz, I think Austin Jackson is a no-brainer. He played a more valuable position, was an above-average hitter and played superb defense. Putting up a 3.7 fWAR as a rookie is impressive. Jackson will be a solid player for Detroit for a long time. Also, if he didn’t get hurt, Caros Santana probably would have won the award. But he was called up late, and then missed a lot of time because of his injury. I put him at #5 anyway just to recognize him.

Runner-ups- 2) Brian Matusz 3) Neftali Feliz 4) John Jaso 5) Carlos Santana

NL Rookie of the Year- Jason Heyward (.277/.393/.456/.376/138, 623 PA, 4.7 aWAR)

Jason. Heyward. Is. A. Beast. I mean for real. He was twenty years and almost put up a .400 OBP in a full season. He had 91 BB despite spending some time on the DL. The dood can hit- and field. It was tempting to pick Posey, especially after watching his postseason, but Heyward had nearly 200 more PA in the regular season and was amazing in his own right. The NL rookie class had to have been one of the best ever.

Runner-ups- 2) Buster Posey 3) Jaime Garcia 4) Mike Stanton 5) Stephen Strasburg

AL Comeback Player of the Year- Colby Lewis (201 IP, 3.55 FIP, 3.93 xFIP, 4.0 aWAR)

In a tightly contested race, Lewis just edges Francisco Liriano. Yes, Liriano had a better season. BUT I find Lewis’ comeback more amazing- and he still had a fantastic season. Sure Liriano hasn’t been relevant since 2006, but Lewis pitched in JAPAN for the past two seasons. At least Liriano was hurt and fiddling around in America.

Runner-ups- 2) Francisco Liriano 3) Vernon Wells 4) Paul Konerko 5) Alex Rios

NL Comeback Player of the Year- Aubrey Huff (.290/.385/.506/.388/145, 668 PA, 5.8 aWAR)

Call this the Year of the Comeback. Much like the AL, there was an abundance of comeback players to choose from. Of all  my picks, this one was one of the toughest. But Huff had the best years of the players I narrowed it down to, and he had the worst performance of anyway in 2009. So he slides in perfectly as the winner.

Runner-ups- 2) Brett Myers 3) Anibal Sanchez 4) Kelly Johnson 5) Rickie Weeks

AL Most Improved/Breakout Player of the Year- Jose Bautista (.260/.378/.617/.422/169, 683 PA, 6.3 aWAR)

I think this one is a no-doubter. Jose Bautista went from a utility-role player to mashing 54 home runs. His WAR reached MVP level. Using fWAR, he bested his previous WAR high of 1.9 by five wins. Wowzers.

Runner-ups- 2) Daric Barton 3) Brett Gardner 4) CJ Wilson 5) David Price

NL Most Improved/Breakout Player of the Year- Andres Torres (.268/.343/.479/.363/128, 570 PA, 5.3 aWAR)

There were a ton of breakout players, but Andres Torres had the biggest breakout. He debuted in 2002 from 2002 through 2005 he never posted a fWAR above 0. Then he went to the minors from 2006 through 2008. He posted a 2.0 WAR last year in 75 games, but really broke out this season with a 6.0 fWAR. He hit well and was a monster of a fielder. Three players I want to mention for improving, but who didn’t even make my top five are Chris Young, Martin Prado, and Omar Infante.

Runner-ups- 2) Jay Bruce 3) Angel Pagan 4) Stephen Drew 5) Chase Headley

AL Relief Pitcher of the Year- Joakim Soria (65 IP, 2.53 FIP, 2.99 xFIP, 2.1 WAR, 2.18 pLI)

Joakim Soria did his best Mariano Rivera performance this season. Not only was he among the leaders in FIP, xFIP, and WAR, but he had the highest leverage index of the players I narrowed my search down to, meaning he performed like a beast in tougher situations than the other candidates for the award. He simply was the best reliever in the AL.

Runner-ups- 2) Matt Thornton 3) Mariano Rivera 4) Neftali Feliz 5) Rafael Soriano

NL Relief Pitcher of the Year- Carlos Marmol (77 IP, 2.01 FIP, 2.95 xFIP, 3.1 WAR, 2.04 pLI)

There were a ton of great relievers in the NL this season. Brian Wilson, Heath Bell, Matt Belisle, etc. But Marmol was the most dominant. His K/9 was 15.99. You read that right. 15.99. Sure, he walked more than five batters per nine, but chances are he would strike out the side before he would walk in a run. His K-BB was a +86. Brian Wilson had 93 STRIKEOUTS. And Marmol’s K-BB was 86. Simply amazing. Plus, he was among the leaders in pLI.

Runner-ups- 2) Brian Wilson 3) Heath Bell 4) John Axford 5) Matt Belisle

AL Silver Slugger Awards-

C- Joe Mauer (.327/.402/.469/.373/136)

1B- Miguel Cabrera (.328/.420/.622/.429/172)

2B- Robinson Cano (.319/.381/.534/.389/145)

3B- Adrian Beltre (.321/.365/.553/.390/143)

SS- Alexei Ramirez (.282/.313/.431/.322/97)

OF- Josh Hamilton (.359/.411/.633/.447/183)*

OF- Jose Bautista (.260/.378/.617/.422/169)

OF- Shin-soo Choo (.300/.401/.384/.388/147)

DH- Luke Scott (.284/.368/.535/.387/143)

* AL Offensive Player of the Year

NL Silver Slugger Awards-

C- Brian McCann (.269/.375/.453/.361/128)

1B- Joey Votto (.324/.424/.600/.439/177)*

2B- Dan Uggla (.287/.369/.508/.381/140)

3B- Ryan Zimmerman (.307/.388/.510/.389/146)

SS- Troy Tulowitzki (.315./.381/.568/.408/150)

OF- Carlos Gonzalez (.336/.376/.598/.416/155)

OF- Jayson Werth (.296/.388/.532/.397/150)

OF- Matt Holliday (.312/.390/.532/.396/153)

P- Yovanni Gallardo (.254/.329/.508/.363/130)

* NL Offensive Player of the Year

AL Gold Glove Awards-

C- Matt Weiters (1060 innings/5 DRS/13 FSR)

1B- Daric Barton (1331 innings/20 DRS/5 FSR/12.1 UZR)

2B- Robinson Cano (1393 innings/7 DRS/10 FSR/-0.6 UZR)

3B- Evan Longoria (1330 innings/15 DRS/20 FSR/11.1 UZR)

SS- Alexei Ramirez (1376 innings/16 DRS/12 FSR/10.8 UZR)

OF- Brett Gardner (1211 innings/16 DRS/12 FSR/21.9 UZR)

OF- Carl Crawford (1260 innings/14 DRS/15 FSR/18.5 UZR)

OF- Ichiro Suzuki (1411 innings/12 DRS/15 FSR/14.8 UZR)

P- Mark Buehrle

NL Gold Glove Awards-

C- Yadier Molina (1138 innings/6 DRS/19 FSR)

1B- Ike Davis (1263 innings/13 DRS/3 FSR/10.1 UZR)

2B- Brandon Phillips (1311 innings/0 DRS/18 FSR/9.7 UZR)

3B- Ryan Zimmerman (1189 innings/20 DRS/16 FSR/13.9 UZR)

SS- Brendan Ryan (1127 innings/27 DSR/11 FSR/11.5 UZR)

OF- Andres Torres (1120 innings/12 DRS/10 FSR/21.2 UZR)

OF- Jay Bruce (1199 innings/17 DRS/9 FSR/20.2 UZR)

OF- Michael Bourn (1189 innings/16 DRS/8 FSR/17.6 UZR)

P- Tim Hudson

Click here to see how we did on our pre-season award predictions!



Valuing the 2011 free agent class: Jayson Werth

November 3, 2010

Victor Martinez

Cliff Lee

Moving the series along, today’s post will focus on Jayson Werth. Werth is coming off his best offensive season where he hit .296/.388/.532/.397/150 over 652 PA. He will no doubt sign a long term deal, but outside that there haven’t been many rumors concerning other details of a possible contract.

His agent Scott Boras likened him to Matt Holliday more than Jason Bay. Bay signed a 4/66mil deal while Holliday signed a 7/120mil deal. Holliday was younger than Werth when he signed his mega deal and had put up better seasons, according to WAR, than Werth in the years leading up to free agency. So I would put Werth somewhere between Holliday and Bay and say he will probably sign for five years wherever he lands.

While Werth had a career year at the dish last season, his defense slipped into the negatives. One year of defensive data is not a lot, but it’s been two years since he was an elite defender according to UZR, so his age might be showing up defensively and he will be an average to below average fielder going forward.

Projecting him over the next six seasons, I will start him at 4.7 WAR and move him down by 0.5 WAR each season. I will start at each WAR being worth $4.5mil and that will increase by $.5mil each season.

If you think he’ll sign a five year deal, he’ll be worth a total of $99.25mil. If you think he’ll sign a four year deal he’ll be worth about $81.7mil. Considering Bay signed for 4/66mil and Werth is better, that sounds about right.

Do the Phillies have the money to sign Werth at 5/82mil? I think they do. However, if they can’t move Ibanez it might not be the smartest move since they already have $143mil in payroll commitment for 2011.

Look for the Angels or Red Sox to sign him. San Francisco remains a long shot, but they could use a right fielder.

Roy Oswalt trade official: now a Philadelphia Phillie

July 29, 2010

Roy Oswalt is officially a Philadelphia Phillie. He was traded for J.A. Happ, and prospects Anthony Gose and Jonathon Villar. The Astros will give Philly $11mil and Oswalt’s buyout is now mutual and worth $2mil.

Not too long ago I broke down a possible Roy Oswalt trade. I wrote:

Well, so far he has a 2.9 WAR. Using the ZiPS projection on FG, he should have a 3.48 FIP over 82 more innings. So lets say that roughly comes out to about a 2.0 WAR. With the current market rate of a win around $4mil, lets simply do $4mil x 2.0 WAR = $8mil. That also means his total WAR in 2010 would be 4.9. Looking at 2011, let’s dock him the traditional 0.5 wins from his WAR. So if he has a 4.4 WAR in 2011 with a market rate of $4.4, his value would be $19.36. Adding up his rest of 2010 value and 2011 value, results in a total value of $27.36mil. He would be paid about $21mil during that time. So he brings the Phillies a net value of $6.36mil. However, if he is still a Phillie after 2011, he has a $16mil club option with a $2mil buyout. I’d say there is a good chance he is bought out, at which point he’d be a type A free agent. So dock $2mil from his current total value to the Phillies, and then add in $10mil for the two picks the Phillies would get for him. Now the Phillies have a total net value of $14.36mil in a trade.

Things have changed a little bit since then. At this point in time, the Phillies would have to pay him about $5mil for the rest of 2010, $15mil in 2011, and $2mil with a buyout prior to 2012. That’s a total of $22mil. However, the Astros are forking up $11mil, so the Phillies would end up paying Oswalt just half of his $22mil. Subtract $11mil from his projected total value of $27.36 and you get a net value of $16.36mil. However, if Oswalt is bought-out or he declines to be picked up in 2012, he will file for free agency and it will be clear he will be heading to a new team. So the Phillies can offer arbitration and assuming Oswalt declines, and the Phillies will get two draft picks. Those picks are worth $10mil so add that to the $16.36mil and now the net value of Oswalt to Philly is $26.36mil.

How did Houston fare? The main player in the deal from their perspective is J.A. Happ. Happ is a nice, young, cheap lefty who profiles as a solid #3 starter. He had a 1.8 WAR as a rookie in 2009, but has been hurt for much of 2010. Assuming he develops into a good #3 SP, I will project his peak WAR to be 3.5. If his WAR increases by about 0.5 each season going forward, in 2011 he will have a 2.3 WAR, a 2.8 WAR in 2012, a 3.3 WAR in 2013, and a 3.5 WAR in 2014. Without adjusting for inflation, and using a market rate per win of $4.4, his value would be $52.36mil. For 2011, lets say the teams agree on a 500k contract. In 2012 he will be arbitration eligible, where off my head lets say he is given $3.5mil. Using the 40/60/80 scale, lets say he is paid $5.6mil in 2013 and $10.1mil in 2014. That brings his net value to $32.66mil.

Seems like a good deal for Houston so far, right? Well, not quite. With Happ we’re projecting years into the future. He may never reach his potential and could be a 1-2 WAR going forward rather than a 3 WAR pitcher. Maybe he will be paid more or less than I have him pegged for. I mean, I did all those projections in a best case scenario for Houston. Odds are, he will be a mediocre, back end of the rotation starting pitcher. If that happens, Houston should ashamed all they are really getting for Oswalt and J.A. Happ. Lets look at a more realistic scenario.

Happ posted a 1.8 WAR in 2009, but he didn’t have the best periphs. He’s given up 1.12 HR per nine in his career so far, and he had a high HR rate in the minors as well. That is due to a high FB% which is 43.5% in his young career. He will be going to Minute Maid, which has a notoriously short porch in left field. That could spell DOOM for Happ. Let’s see averages a 2 WAR over the next four seasons but is paid the same. That would be $35.2mil in value, but after paying him, his net value would be $15.5mil. Suddenly, it’s not such a good trade for Houston.

As for the other prospects, both are a long time away. Anthony Gose is a top ten Phillies prospect, but I don’t think he is anything special. He has great speed (76 stolen bases in 2009) and is supposed to be an amazing fielder. But he can’t hit. He is young and can improve- I mean he was a high round draft pick in 2008. But at best I see him being a Carlos Gomez type. In other words, I think he is a fringe starter-bench player. The prospect is Jonathon Villar. He is intriguing because he is 19 and still years away. He was an international signing and has had okay numbers for the type of prospect he is. If we say both are C level hitting prospects, then total they would be worth $1.4mil.

Overall, I think the deal is fair. But it’s a tough trade to analyze. As Dave Cameron writes:

There will be no easy way to analyze a Roy Oswalt to Philadelphia trade. If this deal happens, it will not lend itself to sound byte analysis, and no one will be able to sum up what is going on in 50 words. It’s complicated, perhaps more so than any recent trade. In the end, it may end up as just a part of one of the most interesting, confusing, and talked about series of acquisitions and departures in baseball history.

For me, the deal hinges on Happ. If he becomes a good pitcher, he will be fair value for Oswalt since he’ll be under contract for four years, be a good player, and will be cost efficient. But if he stays an average pitcher, the Astros will not have gotten a good return. Oswalt is a very good pitcher and the Astros will be eating half of what he is owed. If all they get is a back end of the rotation pitcher and two not so special prospects, well, the trade will be considered a disappointment. In my opinion, come 2014, we might be saying the Astros got fleeced.

As for the Phillies, it’s a good trade. They acquired a front end of the rotation starter who will keep alive them in the pennant chase this year, and figures to make them NL favorites in 2011 as well. And they did so without giving up anyone too special.

I know I didn’t look at this trade without looking back at the Cliff Lee trade. But in terms of the current Phillies roster and situation, it’s a solid move. Granted having Lee would change things, but they don’t have Cliff Lee. All I want to say is Ruben Amaro seems intent on destroying the franchise. He trades Lee when he didn’t need to, and got a horrible return. Then he signed Ryan Howard to a ridiculous long term deal which will force them let Jayson Werth walk as a free agent at the end of the year. But give him credit for this trade.

In the end, I will call the Phillies winners and the Astros probable losers.

Phillies in the trade market

July 21, 2010

Talks between Houston and Philly regarding Roy Oswalt are heating, as well as talks between Tampa and Philly regarding Jayson Werth. So let’s talk about it.

Roy Oswalt to Philadelphia for prospects

I would imagine this potential trade has the most basis in reality. Oswalt has been the subject of trade talk all summer and Phils GM Ruben Amaro has made it clear he wants a high-end starting pitcher. But we also know Oswalt is due around $5mil the rest of the season, as well as $16mil next season. That’s a hefty price to pay, especially for a Phillies team that currently has a payroll too high for their own liking. If Oswalt restricts their financial flexibility for 2011, is he worth trading for?

Well, so far he has a 2.9 WAR. Using the ZiPS projection on FG, he should have a 3.48 FIP over 82 more innings. So lets say that roughly comes out to about a 2.0 WAR. With the current market rate of a win around $4mil, lets simply do $4mil x 2.0 WAR = $8mil. That also means his total WAR in 2010 would be 4.9. Looking at 2011, let’s dock him the traditional 0.5 wins from his WAR. So if he has a 4.4 WAR in 2011 with a market rate of $4.4, his value would be $19.36. Adding up his rest of 2010 value and 2011 value, results in a total value of $27.36mil. He would be paid about $21mil during that time. So he brings the Phillies a net value of $6.36mil. However, if he is still a Phillie after 2011, he has a $16mil club option with a $2mil buyout. I’d say there is a good chance he is bought out, at which point he’d be a type A free agent. So dock $2mil from his current total value to the Phillies, and then add in $10mil for the two picks the Phillies would get for him. Now the Phillies have a total net value of $14.36mil in a trade.

So while he gives Philly a surplus in value (before giving up prospects), is he worth it? He just might be. In the Wild Card they are three games behind the leader in the loss column. Their staff is in shambles- Jamie Moyer is hurt and Joe Blanton has not been good. Right now their only constant is Doc Halladay and Cole Hamels has just been alright. Oswalt is a significant improvement over their fifth starter. As for 2011, Oswalt is showing no signs of aging other than his actual age. He, along with Doc and Cole should make for a strong rotation. Philadelphia may be restricted financially in 2011, but they have no holes to fill. Their everyday starting lineup is under contract (if Brown is the starting right fielder), as well as their top three pitchers.

For Houston to do this deal, what would they want in return? Well if Oswalt is giving the Phillies about $14mil in value, the Astros should expect a top 51-75 hitting prospect or a top 50 pitching prospect. A combo of B or C level prospects would work as well, but I’m sure Houston would rather have the A level prospect. Unfortunately, outside Brown the Phillies have no good prospects. In fact, I’m not so sure who they got in return for Cliff Lee would be enough to land Oswalt. Phillipe Aumount and Tyson Gillies have both struggled mightily this season and neither were top prospects to begin with. It looks like the Cliff Lee trade might come back to bite them in the ass again.

Jayson Werth to Tampa Bay

The other trade being discussed is Jayson Werth to Tampa Bay. Why would Philadelphia do this? To be honest, my only guess is they believe they are getting a starting pitcher, and do not want to pay the pitcher AND Werth. I know Domonic Brown is waiting in the wings which makes Werth a little more expendable than under normal circumstances, but Werth is still a pretty good player. Plus, he will net the Phillies two draft picks when he leaves. So Philly must be thinking what they get in return for Werth will be worth more to them than two draft picks.

The rest of the season Werth is projected to hit .274/.368/.497/.380 over 228 PA. So let’s say he has a 1.5 WAR to finish the season. That would bring his value to $6mil. Werth is being payed $7mil this year, so Tampa would probably end up paying around $3mil. Werth would also net Tampa two draft picks, so tack on an additional $10mil in value and Tampa would be getting a total net value of $14mil. So by trading Werth rather than keeping him, they would only be getting an additional $4mil in value. Is that worth trading him rather than keeping him to make a run at another World Series? Personally, I would say no. Unless Tampa is willing to part with a top prospect or two that you feel is better than anyone you can get with your draft picks, I would not deal Jayson.

As for Tampa, hell yeah I would take Werth. In a tight race, they need any upgrade they can get. Especially since 2010 may be their best chance to win it all, with Crawford and Pena about to leave. While Sean Rodriguez and Reid Brignac are decent players, Werth allows you to play Zobrist at second while putting Werth in right. Also, it could open the door for a potential BJ Upton trade where Tampa can bolster other areas of the team. Werth would give Tampa five outfielders without even looking at Desmond Jennings, so it really makes Upton expendable. Werth would also give them two draft picks, along with Crawford and Pena. WOW. Can you imagine Tampa with six draft picks in the early rounds next season?

Another possible scenario

I don’t believe this has been discussed, but I think a three way deal should go down. Prospects to Houston, Werth to Tampa, and Oswalt to Philly. Philly and Tampa could team up prospects to head to Houston. A win-win-win for all participants. Houston gets fair value for Oswalt, while Tampa and Philly would be both pay fair value, or less even, for Werth and Oswalt.

Whatever happens, baseball is about to be shaken up in what would would be a major trade(s).

Phillies in trouble

June 30, 2010

Entering the season, the Phillies had been to back to back World Series in 2008 and 2009. Many people had them pegged as the best team in the National League. Add in the fact that they picked up Doc Halladay and you could forgetaboutit.

But with the half-way point of the season approaching, the Phillies sit in third place at 41-35, three games behind the Atlanta Braves in the NL East. Meanwhile, Chase Utley, the Phillies best player, has been placed on the DL along with Placido Polanco.

The road ahead could be brutal to Philadelphia. Greg Dobbs, who is replacing Polanco, and Wilson Valdez, who is replacing Utley, are both below average players. Yes, Philly still has Ryan Howard, Jimmy Rollins, Jayson Werth, and Shane Victorino in the lineup, but they are missing out on two players who have combined for a 5.2 WAR so far. The drop off between that and their replacements is HUGE. If Utley and Polanco are out for an extended period of time, it could be Philly’s death sentence as the Braves do not look to be letting up, and the Mets will only be getting stronger with the addition of Carlos Beltran.

One break for Philly is the fact that the AS break is coming up shortly. If they can manage their way through the next twelve games, then they could be fine. But if Utley and Polanco aren’t back by the time the break ends, it could mean serious trouble. After opening the second half with four against the Cubs, the Phillies have four games with the Cardinals and four games with the Rockies- two solid ball clubs.

I never would have imagined this scenario back in March, but the Phillies appear likely to miss out on the postseason for the first time since 2006.

4PARL end of season awards

October 8, 2009

It’s that time of the year again where people start mentioning their official votes for MLB season awards. If we had a vote, this is how it’d go down:

AL MVP:

Disco- Joe Mauer

Bballer- Zack Greinke

Trekker- Joe Mauer

Twaco- Joe Mauer

NL MVP:

Disco- Albert Pujols

Bballer- Albert Pujols

Trekker- Albert Pujols

Twaco- Albert Pujols

AL Cy Young:

Disco- Zack Greinke

Bballer- Zack Greinke

Trekker- Zack Greinke

Twaco- Zack Greinke

NL Cy Young:

Disco- Tim Lincecum

Bballer- Tim Lincecum

Trekker- Chris Carpenter

Twaco- Tim Lincecum

AL Rookie of Year:

Disco- Brett Anderson

Bballer- Elvis Andrus

Trekker- Jeff Niemann

Twaco- Brett Anderson

NL Rookie of Year:

Disco- Andrew McCutchen

Bballer- Garret Jones

Trekker- Andrew McCutchen

Twaco- Andrew McCutchen

AL DHL Delivery Man of Year:

Disco- Mariano Rivera

Bballer- Andrew Bailey

Trekker- Mariano Rivera

Twaco- Mariano Rivera

NL DHL Delivery Man of Year:

Disco- Jon Broxton

Bballer- Jon Broxton

Trekker- Jon Broxton

Twaco- Jon Broxton

Disco’s Silver Sluggers:

C- Joe Mauer; Brian McCann

1b- Miguel Cabrera; Albert Pujols

2b- Ben Zobrist; Chase Utley

3b- Alex Rodriguez; Pablo Sandoval

SS- Derek Jeter; Hanley Ramirez

OF- Jason Bay, JD Drew, Shin-soo Choo; Ryan Braun, Adam Dunn, Justin Upton

DH- Adam Lind

*Kevin Youkilis deserves props. He split between 1b/3b so I didn’t give him the benefit at 1b or 3b.

Bballer’s Silver Sluggers:

C- Joe Mauer; Brian McCann

1b- Miguel Cabrera; Albert Pujols

2b- Ben Zobrist; Chase Utley

3b- Kevin Youkilis; Ryan Zimmerman

SS- Derek Jeter; Hanley Ramirez

OF- Jason Bay, JD Drew, Adam Lind; Justin Upton, Jayson Werth, Ryan Braun

DH- Hideki Matsui

Trekker’s Silver Sluggers:

C- Joe Mauer; Brian McCann

1b- Miguel Cabrera; Albert Pujols

2b- Ben Zobrist; Chase Utley

3b- Alex Rodriguez; Pablo Sandoval

SS- Derek Jeter; Hanley Ramirez

OF- Jason Bay, Adam Lind, Shin-Soo Choo; Justin Upton, Adam Dunn, Ryan Braun

DH- Jason Kubel

Twaco’s Silver Sluggers:

C- Joe Mauer; Brian McCann

1b- Kevin Youkilis; Albert Pujols

2b- Ben Zobrist; Chase Utley

3B- Alex Rodriguez; Pablo Sandoval

SS- Derek Jeter; Hanley Ramirez

OF- Jason Bay, Adam Lind, JD Drew; Justin Upton, Ryan Braun, Adam Dunn

DH- Hideki Matsui

Disco’s Gold Gloves:

C- Kurt Suzuki; Yadier Molina

1b- Mark Teixeira; James Loney

2b- Chase Utley; Dustin Pedroia

3B- Evan Longoria; Ryan Zimmerman

SS- Elvis Andrus; Troy Tulowitzki

OF- Franklin Guitierez, Ryan Sweeney, David DeJesus; Nyjer Morgan, Mike Cameron, Randy Winn

Bballer’s Gold Glovers:

C- Joe Mauer; Yadier Molina

1b- Kevin Youkilis; Adrian Gonzalez

2b- Placido Polanco; Chase Utley

3b- Evan Longoria; Ryan Zimmerman

SS- Jason Bartlett; JJ Hardy

OF- Franklin Guitierez, Carl Crawford, BJ Upton; Mike Cameron, Colby Rasmus, Raul Ibanez

Trekker’s Gold Glovers:

C- Joe Mauer; Yadier Molina

1b- Mark Teixeira; Adrian Gonzalez

2b- Dustin Pedroia; Chase Utley

3b- Evan Longoria; Ryan Zimmerman

SS- Elvis Andrus; Rafael Furcal

OF- Ichiro, Franklin Guitierez, Carl Crawford; Nyjer Morgan, Mike Cameron, Colby Rasmus

Twaco’s Gold Glovers:

C- Joe Mauer; Yadier Molina

1b- Mark Teixeira; Albert Pujols

2b- Dustin Pedroia; Chase Utley

3B- Evan Longoria; Ryan Zimmerman

SS- Elvis Andrus; Rafael Furcal

OF- Nelson Cruz, Franklin Guitierez, David DeJesus; Justin Upton, Mike Cameron, Raul Ibanez