Posted tagged ‘Mariano Rivera’

Andy Pettite retires, is he a Hall of Famer?

February 4, 2011

Well, tomorrow Andy Pettitte will officially retire. For the 2011 Yankees, this sucks. While I don’t believe Andy would have pitched as well as he did in 2010, he is a considerably better option than Ivan Nova, Freddy Garcia, Sergio Mitre, etc, etc for a spot in the rotation. So even at $12mil, Andy is worth that to this specific Yankee team. I can only imagine he would be a 1.5-2 win upgrade compared to our current next best option, so he honestly could be the make or break player/reason the Yankees miss out on the playoffs.

But Andy is not coming back, and as a fan, I cannot complain. He’s been a wonderful talent to watch, and a true competitor. I don’t want to sound all MSMish, but his toughness and appetite to win was fun to watch. For many seasons he was the Yankees star pitcher, and while the Yankees aren’t typically known for their pitching, that’s still an impressive label to carry considering how strong a team the Yankees have been while he’s played for them.

Andy Pettitte has had a good career, but is it a Hall of Fame career?

To begin, Pettitte was a true workhorse. He made 30+ starts in thirteen of his sixteen seasons. Moreover, he did everything well that a pitcher could control. He had a 6.63 K rate, 2.83 BB rate, 0.77 HR rate, and has been successful at inducing lots of ground balls, which usually turn into lots of outs. By limiting walks, keeping the ball in the park, and inducing grounders, Pettitte was able to go deep into ballgames and prevent runs, two significant things a pitcher can do to help his team win, and provide value to them. As a result, Andy had a 3.75 FIP and 66.9 fWAR. In fact, his fWAR/200 is 4.4. That’s not just good. That’s Hall of Fame good.

HOWEVER, bWAR disagrees. His bWAR is 50.2, or 3.3/200 IP. That’s a whole win lower than his fWAR/200. Moreover, his WAR goes from above the HOF standard, to well below it. Yikes. So as a rule of thumb, you average the two. His aWAR would be 58.9 and his aWAR/200 would be 3.8.

So Andy is legitimately borderline right now. His aWAR of 58.9, would just about put him on the Hall of Fame line. Of all players that come to mind, I don’t think a single player is more borderline than Andy Pettitte. If there was an actual line or standard to get into the Hall of Fame, it would be the Andy Pettitte line. I mean, his numbers and rate stats are good, but not OUTSTANDING. Yet he made a lot of starts and threw a lot of innings in the seasons he played, gaining a lot of value. He had 1 WAM season, and another TWELVE WAE seasons (and in two of the three seasons he didn’t 3+ WAR he missed half the season and otherwise would have got 3+ WAR). So Andy Pettitte was pretty much an excellent player for his ENTIRE career with a couple near MVP seasons along the way.

Looking at it right now, I can’t make up my mind on Andy. As I said, he is as borderline as it gets. If he got voted in, I’d agree. If he missed out, I wouldn’t complain. HOWEVER, if you had to lean in a certain way, the way to lean is PRO-HOF- for a couple reasons.

For one, we haven’t even looked at his postseason numbers. While he didn’t pitch as well in the postseason (4.17 FIP, 263 innings), he still accumulated a significant chunk of innings in the postseason. Although we don’t have a database of postseason WAR, if those numbers actually counted, I think it would have made Andy’s numbers look better, especially in terms of WAR.

Second, just go to Tom Tango. In 2009 he wrote:

QUOTE:

As I’ve talked about in the past, the best way to get a sense of someone’s place in history is to compare the player to his peers.  And typically, you get about 20-25 players elected to the Hall of Fame for every decade of birth years (with about one-third of those pitchers).

AND today… :

Andy Pettitte was born in June of 1972.  If we look at every pitcher born within 4.5 years of him (the nine years from 1968 to 1976), we get this list:

#1. Pedro
#2. Mussina
#3. Mariano Rivera
#4. Andy Pettitte
#5. Tim Hudson

We see that Pettitte is somewhere on the cusp of good to great.  I look forward to seeing Pettitte’s name on the Hall of Fame ballot for 15 years.  He deserves that much at least.

So if for a given generation 20-25 players make the HOF and 6-8 or so are pitchers, than it looks like Andy Pettitte is easily a HOF’er. That may speak more to the fact that the current generation is weaker than other generations (especially the one preceding it) but either way, it strengthens Andy’s case.

So yeah, Andy Pettitte the take it or leave it HOF candidate.

 

AND just for fun, lets compare him to fellow soft tossing lefty Tom Glavine, who is just about a lock for the HOF.

Pettitte: 3055 IP, 6.63 K/9, 2.83 BB/9, 0.77 HR/9, 66.9 fWAR, 4.4 fWAR/200, 20.1 WAE, 2.4 WAM

Glavine: 4413 IP, 5.32 K/9, 3.06 BB/9, 0.73 HR/9, 68.5 fWAR, 3.1 fWAR/200, 16.2 WAE, 0 WAM

So yeah. Despite tossing about 1400 less innings, Pettitte has pretty much the same fWAR, a much better fWAR/200, and has accumulated more WAE and WAM. If Glavine is a HOF’er, why not Pettitte?

Yankees sign Rafael Soriano

January 14, 2011

Ugh. It’s a 3/$35mil deal. For a relief pitcher.

I do not like this deal at all. $35mil for a relief pitcher? Are you kidding me?

The deal is also tricky. Soriano has the chance to opt out after 2011 and 2012. So in his 2011 he will make $11.5mil. If he stays he will make $10mil in 2012. If he stays again he will make $13.5mil in 2013.

So basically Soriano controls his own destiny, instead of the team, and he could potentially screw us over.

Don’t get me wrong, Rafael Soriano is a nice pitcher. His K/9, BB/9, and HR/9 are all fantastic. His FIP and xFIP are great as well. But look at it this way…if $ per WAR in 2011 is $4.5mil, Soriano would need to post a 2.6 WAR to justify his contract. Only thing is, he’s posted a WAR above 2 in his career. Moreover, I have a tough time saying he is worth more to the Yankees so even if Soriano doesn’t produce 2.5 WAR he is still worth it. For one, on paper we are more than 2 wins worse than Boston. So even if Soriano is a 1.5-2 win upgrade over our worst bullpen member (like a Sergio Mitre), he doesn’t provide enough of an upgrade to make the large signing worth it. It might help us in the Wild Card, but I would say the goal is to build a roster that will win the division (and as a result, the World Series as well).

Moreover, one can’t argue he’s worth more since he’d be pitching high leverage situations. He will be our SET UP MAN. $35MIL FOR A SET UP MAN. Yes, sometimes the eight can be a high leverage situation. Yes, sometimes the eighth might be the most important part of the game. But that’s not the case as much as it is the case in the ninth. I will say it is nice because now Mo can become a one and done ninth inning pitcher, which could prolong his career, improve his health/endurance over the season, and thus make him more effective later in the season. But is that benefit worth $35mil? I can’t see it.

The opt outs have potential to be good, and the potential to be. If Soriano has a great 2011 and opts out, the Yankees will probably get two drafts. Considering we are losing a first rounder in a loaded 2011 to sign Soriano, it would be good compensation to receive a year of Soriano+2 future draft picks. If he is good and stays, I wouldn’t complain since his contract in 2012 is lower and would be more likely to be worth the money in that season. BUT, what if he sucks in 2011? He will opt to comeback and again we will overpay for a reliever and NOT receive any draft picks. The same theory can be applied for the second opt-out.

So yeah, I hate the deal. I will root for him obviously and he DOES make the Yankees better so I am glad in that sense he is a Yankee. But it’s bad business and a bad contract. $10-$13mil a year may not be a lot for the Yankees to play a person per season, but that make it okay to throw it out the window. That’s money that could go to the draft, international signings, a potential trade, or future FA signing. Moreover, in 2013 we already have $122mil on the books for SIX PLAYERS. Add in Soriano and that’s $135.5mil tied up in SEVEN PLAYERS. WoW.

 

Hopefully, this means Joba Chamberlain to the rotation. I didn’t want to, because his mind is just being toyed with at this point. I figure it will be best to let him reliever another year or two, let him become established, and then bring him back to the rotation. But the signing opens up the door for a Joba return to the rotation. His career high in innings is 157, from 2009, so using Cashman’s +40 innings rule, Joba would be good to go for 200 innings in the rotation. He is a better option than anyone else on the market or in-house and while staying in the pen would give us a NASTY pen, he holds more value and will help the team win more pitching innings 1-6 rather than just inning seven.

 

 

 

Mariano Rivera staying in pinstripes

December 4, 2010

Done deal. 2/$30mil.

His re-signing was as sure a thing as a Yankees save with him on the mound. Yes, $15mil is too much for a closer, but he’s Mariano. It’s also equally awesome that he shut down the Red Sox same exact offer- but that was to be expected.

 

Joe G managing like he doesn’t want to be in New York anymore

October 20, 2010

I could count down a number of problems the entire ALCS, but I’ll stick to the past game and today (when the game hasn’t even started yet!)

– Intentionally walking David Murphy. You NEVER put the winning run on base. NEVER. You pitch to him. Whether it’s with AJ or Logan, you pitch to him.

– Leaving Burnett in to face Molina. Yes, Molina sucks and even I should be able to get him out. But we were lucky to have gotten that much out of AJ. He is prone to the big inning and big hit. Take him out while you can. A fresh reliever should be able to destroy Molina.

– Letting Boone Logan face Josh Hamilton. Never let your worst pitcher face a team’s best hitter in a critical situation. Never.

– Pitching Mitre in the ninth. If that isn’t a white flag, then I don’t know what is. At the point, we were still one swing away from a tie game. With an off-day Thursday, you do everything you can to keep the score 7-3. That means pitching Mo in the ninth.

– Today’s lineup. Why is Berkman in over Kearns? Berkman is a black hole against righties. His defense isn’t great. By playing Kearns, you have a better bat in the lineup to face CJ Wilson AND your defense is better with Kearns in right and Swisher at first. Moreover, why are two lefties, Grandy and Gardy, bunched together in the 8 and 9 spot. From the 6 spot on down, wouldn’t it make more sense to have Posada, Granderson, Berkman, Gardner to break the lefties up? Yes. Yes it would.

 

I would used to stand up for Girardi since I do like his regular season bullpen management. But enough is enough. Once late season and October games roll around, he completely changes his managerial style for the worse.

4PARL 2010 PREDICTION BONANZA!

March 31, 2010

Well, April 4th and the start of the 2010 season is just days away. There are more hours of daylight, flowers are starting to bloom, players are wrapping up their Spring Training regimen, teams are making their final roster decisions, and vendors are preparing their popcorn bags.  Regular season baseball is already upon us. Huzzah! Huzzah!

Okay, enough of that. Like most people, we here at 4PARL have predictions and guesses for the upcoming season. Not projections because we’re not a cool enough blog. Just our predictions based off projections and gut instincts. ENJOY OUR PREDICTION BONANZA!

Playoffs:

Disco-

Yankees over Rangers
Red Sox over Twins
Yankees over Red Sox

Phillies over Rockies
Cardinals over Braves
Cardinals over Phillies

Yankees over Cardinals

ES42-

Yankees over Rangers
Red Sox over Twins
Yankees over Red Sox

Phillies over Cardinals
Rockies over Braves
Phillies over Rockies

Yankees over Phillies

10th batter-

Red Sox over Twins
Yankees over Angels
Yankees over Red Sox

Phillies over Cardinals
Rockies over Braves
Rockies over Phillies

Yankees over Phillies

Twaco-

Yankees over Rangers
Red Sox over White Sox
Yankees over Red Sox

Phillies over Rockies
Dodgers over Cardinals
Phillies over Dodgers

Yankees over Phillies

YC-

Yankees over Rangers
Red Sox over Twins
Yankees over Red Sox

Cardinals over Dodgers
Rockies over Phillies
Cardinals over Rockies

Yankees over Cardinals

JeffMac-

Yankees over Twins
Red Sox over Mariners
Red Sox over Yankees

Phillies over Dodgers
Cardinals over Braves
Phillies over Cardinals

Red Sox over Phillies

Dougbies-

Yankees over White Sox
Red Sox over Mariners
Yankees over Red Sox

Rockies over Marlins
Phillies over Cardinals
Rockies over Phillies

Yankees over Rockies

MVP:

Disco- Mark Teixeira/Chase Utley

ES42- Alex Rodriguez/Albert Pujols

10thbatter- Evan Longoria and Chase Utley

Twaco- Evan Longoria/Albert Pujols

YC- Alex Rodriguez/Hanley Ramirez

JeffMac- Alex Rodriguez/Hanley Ramirez

Dougbies- Alex Rodriguez/Albert Pujols

Cy Young

Disco- CC Sabathia/Roy Halladay

ES42- Jon Lester/Roy Halladay

10thbatter- CC Sabathia/ Roy Halladay

Twaco- Felix Hernandez/Tim Lincecum

YC- Jon Lester/Roy Halladay

JeffMac- Felix Hernandez/Roy Halladay

Dougbies- CC Sabathia/Tim Lincecum

Rookie of Year:

Disco- Scott Sizemore/Ian Kennedy

ES42- Carlos Santana/Jason Heyward

10thbatter- Brian Matusz/Jason Heyward

Twaco- Desmond Jennings/Jason Heyward

YC- Austin Jackson/Jason Heyward

JeffMac- Scott Sizemore/Kyle Blanks

Dougbies- Wade Davis/Drew Storen

Comeback Player of Year:

Disco- Alexis Rios/Rickie Weeks

ES42- BJ Upton/Jose Reyes

10thbatter- Francisco Liriano/Geovany Soto

Twaco- BJ Upton/David Wright

YC- BJ Upton/David Wright

JeffMac- Dice-BB/Jeff Francis

Dougbies- Vernon Wells/Chris Young (ARI)

Relief Pitcher of Year:

Disco- Jon Papelbon/Trevor Hoffman

ES42- Mariano Rivera/Jon Broxton

10thbatter- Mariano Rivera/Jon Broxton

Twaco- Mariano Rivera/Jon Broxton

YC- Mariano Rivera/Jon Broxton

JeffMac- Jon Papelbon/Jon Broxton

Dougbies- Rafael Soriano/Jon Broxton

Offensive Player of Year:

Disco- Miguel Cabrera/Albert Pujols

ES42- Alex Rodriguez/Albert Pujols

10thbatter- Evan Longoria/Albert Pujols

Twaco- Evan Longoria/Albert Pujols

YC- Joe Mauer/Albert Pujols

JeffMac- Alex Rodriguez/Albert Pujols

Dougbies- Alex Rodriguez/Albert Pujols

Defensive Player of Year:

Disco- Franlin Guitierrez/Nyjer Morgan

ES42- Evan Longoria/Ryan Zimmerman

10thbatter- Elvis Andrus/Ryan Zimmerman

Twaco- Franklin Guitierrez/Ryan Zimmerman

YC- Franklin Guitierrez/Matt Kemp

JeffMac- Elvis Andrus/Justin Upton

Dougbies- Franlink Guitierrez/Ryan Zimmerman

Breakout Player of Year:

Disco- Sean Rodriguez/Clayton Kershaw

ES42- Elvis Andrus/Casey McGhee

10thbatter- Brettt Anderson/Joey Votto

Twaco- Elvis Andrus/Ricky Nolasco

YC- Ryan Sweeney/Yunel Escobar

JeffMac- Alex Gordon/Jon Sanchez

Dougbies- Matt Weiters/Colby Rasmus

Players to Watch:

Disco- Felix Hernandez/Justin Upton

ES42- Matt Weiters/Justin Upton

10thbattter- Jake Peavy/Clayton Kershaw

Twaco- Brett Gardner/Seth Smith

YC- Justin Verlander/Troy Tulowitzki

JeffMac- Matt Garza/John Maine

Dougbies- Matt Weiters/Ubaldo Jiminez

BOLD ASS PREDICTIONS:

Disco-

-Reds win the Wild Card

-A’s win the AL West

-Grady Sizemore joins the 40/40 club

– Cliff Lee posts a 3.75+ ERA

– Jon Lester becomes the best lefty in baseball (not so bold, but a prediction nonetheless)

-Twins make the World Series

-Diamondbacks make the World Series

ES42-

-Beltran will get traded after having a good May/June/July
-Rockies finish with best record in the National League

10thbatter-

– Brett Anderson finishes in the top 5 in AL Cy Young voting
– Evan Longoria hits 45+ homers
– B.J. Upton goes for 30/30

Twaco-

-Jesus Montero will win AL ROY
-Ricky Nolasco will win NL Cy Young
-Marlins will win NL East

YC-

-Francisco Liriano will have a mid 2 ERA
-Ryan Sweeney will have a 5.0 WAR season due to defense
-Michael Bourn will steal 70 bases

JeffMac-

-Kyle Blanks trumps Jason Heyward in most stat categories
-Matt Garza wins the AL Cy Young
-The Rockies miss the playoffs
-Mike Cameron hits .260 w/30 HR
-The Chicago Cubs win the NL pennant

Dougbies-

-Wieters finished 2010 with a higher WAR than Mauer
-Reds win more games than Cubs in 2010
-Rockies make the World Series
-Phil Hughes is Yankees third best starter in 2010
-Ichiro/Figgins combine to steal 100+ bags

Top 100 players of all-time: 90-81

December 4, 2009

YC picks up where he left off

90. Roy Campanella
.360/.500/.38536.3

Campanella was a three time MVP, (1951, 1953, and 1955) and had good power for a catcher. He hit 242 career home runs. He made eight All-Star appearances and led the Dodgers to five pennants while winning one World Series title.

89. Mariano Rivera
1.01/80.1 %/2.78/46.8
The G.O.A.T. in the closer role and the only closing pitching on this list is the great Mariano Rivera. Rivera is still playing today and will be the last man to wear number 42. He may not own the saves record, but the man does his job. Rivera’s career ERA is 2.25. Also known for his clutch playoff pitching, Mo has the most saves and lowest ERA in post season history. (39 and 0.74).

88. Bob Feller
1.32/74.0 %/3.48/66.0

Feller posted a 3.25 ERA in his twenty years as a professional ballplayer. He had twelve one hitters and set a record for strikeouts in a season with 348 in 1946. Feller also won the Pitching Triple Crown in 1940. He was an eight time All-Star as well. Feller accumulated 2581 strikeouts over his career.

87. Harmon Killebrew
.376/.509/.389/61.2

A true power hitter, Killebrew spent his first four seasons on the bench before bursting on the scene with 42 home runs in 1959. Killebrew went on to hit forty home runs in a season seven more times. Killer was the 1969 AL MVP and was sent to eleven All-Star games. He is apart of the 500 HR and 2,000 hit clubs. (573 homers, 2,086 hits)

86. Steve Carlton

1.25/74.1 %/3.15/84.4

Carlton was a four time Cy Young winner, one time Triple Crown winner, and a one time
Gold Glove winner. He too was a strikeout pitcher and held the strikeout career record until Nolan Ryan broke it. Carlton also made ten All-Star game appearances. He also won 329 games in his career.

85. Al Simmons

.380/.535/.409/63.5

In each of his first eleven seasons Simmons drove in over 100 runs. Simmons was one of the best hitting OF’s during the 20’s and 30’s. He was a three-time All-Star and he was 73 hits shy from 3000. Simmons had a final career batting average of .334.

84. Willie McCovey
.374/.515/.388/65.1

McCovey had a cove named after him outside AT&T Park. He and teammate Willie Mays formed a powerful duo. Willie McCovey was elected to the Hall in his first season of eligibility in 1986 . He was the 1959 ROY and the 1969 MVP. He was also six time All-Star. His main strength was his power. He hit 521 long balls over his career.

83. Ozzie Smith
.337/.328/.311/64.7

Smith is one of the Cardinals most known ballplayers. The Wizard of Oz had many acrobatic moves in the infield. Smith won thirteen straight Gold Glove awards and he was a sixteen time All-Star. His strength was his defense. He had great range and and is perhaps the greatest defensive player at any position in the history of baseball.

82. Larry Walker

.400/.565/.414/67.1

Walker was a product of Colorado’s perfect hitters park. In 1997 he hit .366 with a .452 OBP, 208 hits, 143 runs, 46 doubles, 49 home runs, 130 RBI, and 33 stolen bases.  He also was won seven Gold Gloves and had five All-Star game appearances. Walker was a fine defensive player who had range and a strong arm.

81. Jim Thome

.404/.557/.406/65.7

Thome is yet another great power hitter on my list. I think he has one of the best strokes in the game. For eleven straight seasons Thome hit at least twenty home runs. Like most power hitters he was either going to walk, strike out, or hit a home run. Thome is a four time All-Star. Thome has hit 541 home runs.

Mariano Rivera did not spit on the ball

October 20, 2009

1) As I will show later, he clearly missed the ball with the spit. It was a bad angle.

2) He throws a cutter. What’s the point of spitting on it, he doesn’t want drop.

3) There are hundreds of cameras with tons of people watching. Why spit now?

4) That’s not how you throw a spitball. Not even close.

5) Why would he spit right before the game is about to resume and not before his warm-up?

The spit is clearly below the ball. It’s a bad angle.

His first pitch had four inches of movement. So much for spitting on the baseball.

Let’s put the rumor to rest. Mo did not cheat. The creator of the video owes Mo an apology.

EDIT: Deadspin has better photos

2009 Yankees vs. Angels ALCS preview

October 14, 2009

Position Players

The Angels may have a better team BA which I’ve heard pointed out multiple times, but it’s only .002 points better. That’s minuscule. The smart baseball people also know that OBP is better than BA. The Yankees lead that category by .012 points. SLG is also an important stat and the Yankees lead by .037 points. A very important stat which often gets overlooked is BB/K ratio. That Yankees are much better in that category with a 0.65 BB/K while the Angels have a 0.52 BB/K. The Yankees have a BB% and K% of 10.5 and 17.9, respectively. The Angels have a 8.9 BB% and a 18.7 K%. The Yankees have a .366 wOBA as a team. That’s really good for an entire team. The Angels have a .346 wOBA as a team which is good, but no where near the Yankees. Both teams can take advantage of mistakes on the basepaths except a few players on each team. They can also both steal plenty of bases if given the chance. Both starting catchers throw out less than 30% of base runners so expect Scioscia and Girardi to give their base runners the green light when they’re behind the plate. Neither team is anything to write about on defense. The Yankees do however lead the Angels in WAR by 8.9. That’s a significant amount. The Yankees and Angels, respectively, scored the most runs in the MLB with the Yankees scoring 915 and the Angels scoring 883.

Starters

The playoff rotation for a team in a LCS is different from the one during the season because they would use 4 starters instead of 5 starters so team statistics from the season will not work. The Yankees are <A HREF=”http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/playoffs/2009/news/story?id=4556312”>leaning towards</A> using a 3-man rotation like they did in the ALDS. This would mean that CC Sabathia would have to start game 4 on 3 days rest, but AJ would start game 5 on normal rest, Andy would start game 6 on normal rest, and CC would start game 7 on normal rest. As a diehard Yankees fan I would feel much better without having to start Gaudin or Joba. This will also lengthen our already stingy bullpen. The Angels could opt to do the same thing and have Lackey pitch on short rest, but he hasn’t exactly been the epitome of health. He hasn’t started 30 games since 2007. I will show stats both ways for the Angels since nothing is set in stone.

CC Sabathia has pitched great this season showing why he was the most coveted pitcher on the FA market last year. He’s hit a few bumps in the road, but rarely do pitchers pitch outstanding in every game. He also shut all the doubters up with a great performance in game 1 of the ALDS. AJ Burnett has had a rocky season, but flashes of greatness during the season capped off by a very good performance to close out the season. He pitched very nicely in game 2 of the ALDS, but he also walked 5 in 6 innings which is a little scary against an Angels team that’s not afraid to steal a base. Andy Pettitte pitched very well for a 37 year old pitcher who was never a dominant pitcher. He also had a very good game in game 3. This season CC, AJ, and Andy combined for a 3.83 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 2.25 K/BB, 7.7 K/9, and 3.42 BB/9. I’m not really sure how to calculate FIP, but the average FIP of those 3 comes out to 3.95. CC, AJ, and Andy had a combined 12.3 WAR over the season and a 3.89 WAR/200. A 3-man rotation would also make sense because the Yankees would send out CC, easily their best starter, to start a crucial game 7 if necessary.

John Lackey hasn’t been so great this season. He has had a bunch of really good starts mixed in with some really bad ones. Looking at his game log he reminds of AJ Burnett this season. However, he’s coming off a great start against Boston in game 1. Jered Weaver had a very similar season to Lackey and pitched great in game 2. Scott Kazmir did not have a good year overall, but he was amazing with the Angels. However, he didn’t have a very good game 3 against the Red Sox. If the Angels do not feel comfortable starting Lackey on 3 days rest they could either switch up their rotation so that either Weaver or Kazmir would start on short rest or they could insert Joe Saunders into the rotation. The 3-man rotation had a 4.09 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 2.49 K/BB, 7.2 K/9, and a 2.91 BB/9. Their average FIP was 4.01. They had a combined 10.1 WAR and a 3.78 WAR/200. Let’s see what happens when Joe Saunders, who would most likely be their 4th starter, comes into the picture. The 4-man rotation had a 4.22 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 2.24 K/BB, 6.63 K/9, and 2.96 BB/9. Their average FIP would be 4.30. They had a 11.3 WAR and a 3.14 WAR/200. The obvious choice would be to go with the 3-man rotation, but the looming question is can any of the 3 pitch effectively on short rest.

Bullpen

For the bullpens I will look at each team’s closer and a few key contributors. For the Yankees I will look at Mariano Rivera, Phil Hughes, David Robertson, and Alfredo Aceves. I think these are the bullpen arms we will see most for the Yankees. I left out Joba Chamberlain because he pitch 1 game out of the bullpen even though we will see a lot of him out of the bullpen. I also left out Phil Coke because during the season he was used against righties and lefties, but in the ALCS he will be a lefty specialist. The same thing goes for Damaso Marte IF he is needed. I left out Chad Gaudin because he’s only going to show up for long relief if Alfredo Aceves is unavailable and even if he is Phil Hughes can go 2. Brian Bruney was left out because he’ll be a last resort and with at most 2 games back to back the only circumstance I see him coming in is in mop up duty or if the Yankees are down by a lot late. The 4 bullpen guys I’m looking at had a 2.49 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 4.24 K/BB, 9.93 K/9, and 2.34 BB/9. They also had a 2.84 FIP.

The Angels closer is Brian Fuentes and the key contributors to the rest of the bullpen that pitched in the ALDS are Darren Oliver, Jason Bulger, and Kevin Jepsen. I’m not too familiar with the rest of the Angels bullpen, but I’d imagine Matt Palmer gets some action and depending on which rotation they choose could put Joe Saunders in the bullpen. I left those 2 out of the equation since I am unsure whether either will see much action if they’re in the bullpen. Fuentes, Oliver, Bulger, and Jepsen had a combined 3.74 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 2.41 K/BB, 8.40 K/9, and 3.48 BB/9. They also had a 3.60 FIP.

My Prediction and Reasoning

I predict that the Yankees will win this series. My reasoning is that the Yankees have the better offense and the Angels are a little better on defense. However, WAR says that regardless of the Angels better defense the Yankees offense overpowers the difference resulting in the Yankees domination in team WAR for position players. As for the starting pitching on both teams the Yankees are a little better overall if the Angels opt to go with the 3-man rotation and much better if the Angels go with the 4-man rotation. The bullpen for the Yankees is much better even without factoring Joba into the equation. There is a 1.25 ERA difference. That’s really significant. The Yankees K/BB is also much, much better than the Halos. In my opinion this might even be more important than ERA for relievers because 1 or 2 bad outings can destroy a relievers ERA while K/BB generally will stay consistent unless there is something seriously wrong due to an injury or something like that. ERA is also somewhat reliant on defense and K/BB is not. K/BB also takes into account 2 of the 3 true outcomes for pitchers.

Update:
According to ESPN’s pitching match ups for the ALCS Saunders will pitch game 2 and 6 with Kazmir pitch game 4.

4PARL end of season awards

October 8, 2009

It’s that time of the year again where people start mentioning their official votes for MLB season awards. If we had a vote, this is how it’d go down:

AL MVP:

Disco- Joe Mauer

Bballer- Zack Greinke

Trekker- Joe Mauer

Twaco- Joe Mauer

NL MVP:

Disco- Albert Pujols

Bballer- Albert Pujols

Trekker- Albert Pujols

Twaco- Albert Pujols

AL Cy Young:

Disco- Zack Greinke

Bballer- Zack Greinke

Trekker- Zack Greinke

Twaco- Zack Greinke

NL Cy Young:

Disco- Tim Lincecum

Bballer- Tim Lincecum

Trekker- Chris Carpenter

Twaco- Tim Lincecum

AL Rookie of Year:

Disco- Brett Anderson

Bballer- Elvis Andrus

Trekker- Jeff Niemann

Twaco- Brett Anderson

NL Rookie of Year:

Disco- Andrew McCutchen

Bballer- Garret Jones

Trekker- Andrew McCutchen

Twaco- Andrew McCutchen

AL DHL Delivery Man of Year:

Disco- Mariano Rivera

Bballer- Andrew Bailey

Trekker- Mariano Rivera

Twaco- Mariano Rivera

NL DHL Delivery Man of Year:

Disco- Jon Broxton

Bballer- Jon Broxton

Trekker- Jon Broxton

Twaco- Jon Broxton

Disco’s Silver Sluggers:

C- Joe Mauer; Brian McCann

1b- Miguel Cabrera; Albert Pujols

2b- Ben Zobrist; Chase Utley

3b- Alex Rodriguez; Pablo Sandoval

SS- Derek Jeter; Hanley Ramirez

OF- Jason Bay, JD Drew, Shin-soo Choo; Ryan Braun, Adam Dunn, Justin Upton

DH- Adam Lind

*Kevin Youkilis deserves props. He split between 1b/3b so I didn’t give him the benefit at 1b or 3b.

Bballer’s Silver Sluggers:

C- Joe Mauer; Brian McCann

1b- Miguel Cabrera; Albert Pujols

2b- Ben Zobrist; Chase Utley

3b- Kevin Youkilis; Ryan Zimmerman

SS- Derek Jeter; Hanley Ramirez

OF- Jason Bay, JD Drew, Adam Lind; Justin Upton, Jayson Werth, Ryan Braun

DH- Hideki Matsui

Trekker’s Silver Sluggers:

C- Joe Mauer; Brian McCann

1b- Miguel Cabrera; Albert Pujols

2b- Ben Zobrist; Chase Utley

3b- Alex Rodriguez; Pablo Sandoval

SS- Derek Jeter; Hanley Ramirez

OF- Jason Bay, Adam Lind, Shin-Soo Choo; Justin Upton, Adam Dunn, Ryan Braun

DH- Jason Kubel

Twaco’s Silver Sluggers:

C- Joe Mauer; Brian McCann

1b- Kevin Youkilis; Albert Pujols

2b- Ben Zobrist; Chase Utley

3B- Alex Rodriguez; Pablo Sandoval

SS- Derek Jeter; Hanley Ramirez

OF- Jason Bay, Adam Lind, JD Drew; Justin Upton, Ryan Braun, Adam Dunn

DH- Hideki Matsui

Disco’s Gold Gloves:

C- Kurt Suzuki; Yadier Molina

1b- Mark Teixeira; James Loney

2b- Chase Utley; Dustin Pedroia

3B- Evan Longoria; Ryan Zimmerman

SS- Elvis Andrus; Troy Tulowitzki

OF- Franklin Guitierez, Ryan Sweeney, David DeJesus; Nyjer Morgan, Mike Cameron, Randy Winn

Bballer’s Gold Glovers:

C- Joe Mauer; Yadier Molina

1b- Kevin Youkilis; Adrian Gonzalez

2b- Placido Polanco; Chase Utley

3b- Evan Longoria; Ryan Zimmerman

SS- Jason Bartlett; JJ Hardy

OF- Franklin Guitierez, Carl Crawford, BJ Upton; Mike Cameron, Colby Rasmus, Raul Ibanez

Trekker’s Gold Glovers:

C- Joe Mauer; Yadier Molina

1b- Mark Teixeira; Adrian Gonzalez

2b- Dustin Pedroia; Chase Utley

3b- Evan Longoria; Ryan Zimmerman

SS- Elvis Andrus; Rafael Furcal

OF- Ichiro, Franklin Guitierez, Carl Crawford; Nyjer Morgan, Mike Cameron, Colby Rasmus

Twaco’s Gold Glovers:

C- Joe Mauer; Yadier Molina

1b- Mark Teixeira; Albert Pujols

2b- Dustin Pedroia; Chase Utley

3B- Evan Longoria; Ryan Zimmerman

SS- Elvis Andrus; Rafael Furcal

OF- Nelson Cruz, Franklin Guitierez, David DeJesus; Justin Upton, Mike Cameron, Raul Ibanez