Posted tagged ‘Mark Teixeira’

Boston Red Sox trade for Adrian Gonzalez

December 4, 2010

After what seems like two years of rumors, the Boston Red Sox have FINALLY completed a trade for Adrian Gonzalez of the San Diego Padres. And the Red Sox instantly become my 2011 World Series favorites.

The prospects going to San Diego are Casey Kelly, Anthony Rizzo, Raymond Fuentes, and a PTBNL. At first when I looked at this package, it underwhelmed me. But when I did the analysis, it’s actually a fair haul for San Diego.

In 2011 Adrian Gonzalez will be paid $5.5mil. As you will see on the table I am posting below, I have Gonzalez’s value in 2011 at $22.5mil. So that’s a net value of $17mil. That’s the target value in the return the Padres should aim for.

Well, they got three of Boston’s top ten prospects according to Baseball America. Casey Kelly is a top ten pitching prospect in baseball and was voted as having the best curve in Boston’s farm system by BA. Rizzo was voted the top power bat and Fuentes was voted the best athlete. Using Victor Wang’s prospect value chart, we can value Kelly at $15.2mil, Rizzo around $12.5mil and Fuentes at $5.5mil. That’s a total of $33.2mil. Even if you don’t consider Rizzo is a top 100 hitting prospect, the Padres still get more than $17mil in prospect value. So from their end, they have done well.

As for Boston, a lot of the trade depends on their extension to Gonzalez. Sure, they overpaid in prospects, but it could be worth it for them if it means a World Series ring and if Gonzalez is a useful player for them over the course of the decade. If they overpay him (to a Mark Teixeira like contract) then it could be a bad deal. If they get him on the cheap or for his fair value, than I like the trade for them. If they sign him for fair value, then his future value to them will be zero, since he will be paid what he’s worth. So that doesn’t change the dynamics of the trade. For now, the Padres are getting +$16mil in value, and the Red Sox are losing -$16mil in value if they sign Gonzalez to a fair contract. That sounds bad for Boston, but it’s not. Yes, they are giving up three valuable prospects, but it’s worth the deficit since he instantly makes them World Series favorites.

So, what type of deal does Adrian Gonzalez want? Rumors say he wants a deal similar to Ryan Howard’s. That’s good for Boston because Howard signed a 5/$125mil deal this past season. Here is my table for Gonzalez:

That’s over six years. So it’s also bad news. It’s good because Gonzalez doesn’t want a super-mega deal like Mark Teixeira. But I have him worth about $21mil per year, not $25mil per year. So the extension discussions should be interesting.

Overall though, I like the trade for both sides. Although the Yankee fan in me wants the Red Sox extension talks to fall apart so he leaves after 2011, costing the Red Sox three good prospects for just one season of a first baseman.

Robbie Cano knows BOOM!

November 28, 2010

After a stellar MVP-esque season from the New York Yankees star second baseman, Robinson Cano, I am obligated to reflect upon his monster season and look ahead to what we can expect from him in 2011, being that he’s my boy and all.

To many, 2010 was a coming out party for Robbie Cano. While Mark Teixeira, Alex Rodriguez, and Derek Jeter slumped for much of the season, Robbie put the team on his back- especially in the first half- posting a line of .319/.381/.534/.389/145 with a 6.4 fWAR over the span of 160 games and 696 PA. His bWAR was 6.1, giving him an aWAR (average WAR) of 6.3 (after you round up). He set career bests in OBP, SLG, wOBA, wRC+, HR, BB%, and WAR. When award season rolled around, Robbie swept the Gold Glove/Silver Slugger awards, implying he was the best second baseman in baseball this season, and finished third in AL MVP voting. It was quite the season for a kid who not too long ago had a pathetic 0.2 fWAR during a season in which he was benched for a lack of effort.

But was 2010 really a coming out party for Cano? In 2006, his second season in the majors, he posted a 2.9 fWAR in a shortened season, but his WAR/700 was 4.0 on the nose. In 2007 he posted a 4.7 fWAR and in 2009 he had a 4.4 fWAR. So before 2010, he already had great seasons before his 27th birthday. Thus, his 2010 really shouldn’t come as a surprise. He was simply developing. Granted, there was some luck involved, as is always the case when someone has a really good or really bad season. But as he is approaching his theoretical peak years, his true talent level is rising. Which is why with a little fortune on his side, he should have been expected to improve upon his 4-5 WAR seasons.

Moreover, the UZR scale that fangraphs uses hurts him. If one were to look at his bWAR, his career WAR total would jump from 18.7 to 23.9. His WAR totals from 2005-2009 would all increase. In fact, in the three seasons I highlighted in the previous paragraphs, his WAR, in order, would jump to 4.1, 5.6, and 5.1. That’s two near MVP level seasons instead of “simply” great seasons. The reason being defense.

UZR has Cano has a -36.8 fielder over the life of his career. Rally has him as a +31 fielder. I prefer UZR so I put more stock in those numbers, but DSR has him at -3 for his career. They say UZR needs to be paired with your eyes and the last two years, according to the FSR, he has been +13. UZR has him at -3.4 over the past two years and DSR has him at +14. I think it’s safe to say that Robbie has been and is an average-above average fielder, NOT the terrible fielder that UZR thinks he is. So his fWAR actually undermines Robbie’s defensive value, and thus, his overall value. If you to replace UZR with DSR, Robbie’s career WAR would climb from 18.7 to around 22.0. So yeah, Cano is probably even a little better than you would think by looking at his fWAR alone and not analyzing what comprises it. I mean, he has a career 18.7 fWAR which says his defensive value has been -36.8 runs. BUT, 21.5 of those runs are from his rookie season alone, when he was a terrible defender. I’m not saying those defensive runs allowed shouldn’t count, but they greatly skew his current totals, which conceals the fact that Robbie is actually decent fielder now.

That’s enough of a rant for now though. Let’s take a look at how Robbie put together his amazing season. The first thing I want to mention is PLATE DISCIPLINE. While it’s not a high mark, Robbie had a BB% of 8.2%, which was above his career 4.2% BB% entering the season. In fact, of his 186 career BB, 31% are from his 2010 season alone. What’s interesting though is that he didn’t actually seem to improve upon his plate discipline peripherals. His O-Swing% was a career high 36.5% while the rest of his peripherals are in line with his career averages. So this begs the question- what can we expect from Robbie in 2011?

Well, prior to the 2010 season, Robbie mentioned that A-Rod told him to take more “A-swings” in order to really drive the ball. Kevin Long also worked a ton with Robbie doing the “home-run drill” to help him pull the ball and develop, well, home-run power. The result was a career high ISO and SLG. In previous seasons, Robbie would show glimpses of greatness, but was often inconsistent because he would lose focus- whether it be defensively or offensively. That is not to be confused with work ethic. Whenever he slumped, the MSM would claim he was being lazy because of his laid back on-field demeanor. To me though, that’s lazy journalism. Anyone who follows the Yankees knows that, in large part due to Alex Rodriguez and Larry Bowa, Robbie is arguably the hardest working Yankee. He ALWAYS shows up for the optional BP. He gets to the park early, works his butt off in the off-season, and worked on his fielding so much that he went from TERRIBLE to above average with the glove in just a couple seasons.

2010 was the culmination of all his hard work. He finally had a consistent season where he suffered few lapses- defensively and offensively. In past years with the glove, he would go four months without an error and then commit three in a week. That cold stretch never happened this past season. His future success will depend on consistency. Can he keep the focus for another 162 straight games? If so, then we’re looking at an annual MVP candidate who will provide reliable defense and maintain an average BB rate. If not, then we’re looking at a guy who is unpredictable- great defense and hot hitting for weeks or months at a time, but also long stretches of some terrible performance.

Cano’s salary will be $10mil in 2011 and then climb to $14mil in 2012 and $15mil in 2013 if his options are picked up. So he will no longer be a “cheap” player for the Yankees. Considering the rising average age of the team and what that average age will be in 2012-2013, the Yankees need Robinson Cano to maintain his focus and continue to get better. If so, he could emerge as the best player on baseball’s most recognizable team. Hell, he could supplant Chase Utley as the premiere second baseman of baseball. On the other hand, he could become another overpriced good-but-not-great Bronx Bomber.

2011 will be a pivotal year for Robinson Cano if he wants to truly prove his worth. Here’s hoping he goes BOOM.

Yankees trade Juan Miranda for Scott Allen

November 18, 2010

In other news, the Yankees traded 1b Juan Miranda for minor league pitcher Scott Allen.

This news makes me sad, because I love Juan “Man Child” Miranda. But it’s a solid move. I think Juan Miranda could be a useful ML player. Maybe not a starter, because he could get 300-400 PA against righties a year and hit above average with power. But he has no place on the Yankees in the foreseeable future. First base is blocked by Mark Teixeira. DH wouldn’t be an option since the Yankees have a revolving door for old players (Jorge Posada, Alex Rodriguez) and even some prospects (Jesus Montero).

So the return for Miranda should be small, but the Yankees did a good job on that small return. Scott Hall was a 2009 draft pick in the 11th round, so he’s got some talent. Last season he made 16 starts and threw 78 innings in A ball. He had a 9.12 K/9, 2.54 BB/9, 0.58 HR/9, and a 2.97 FIP. So he has some potential. He gives up a lot of fly balls which could become a problem, but for now, he looks promising. There is a great chance he never throws an inning for the Yankees at the ML level, but his promise is worth trading a 28 year old first baseman who has not future for sure with the Yankees. I mean, the kid isn’t even 20 yet.

Meanwhile, Arizona very well could have gotten a decent starting first baseman, in a hitters park, for a low level prospect. Solid trade all around.

Top ten switch-hitters of all-time

July 2, 2010

Title is self explanatory. This idea popped into my head the other day when I was thinking of Chipper Jones. So lets cut the bs and get to the list.

+Stat line is ( BA/OBP/SLG/wOBA/wRC+/Park adjusted RAA based on wOBA)

10. Carlos Beltran (6877 PA, .283/.360/.496/.372/126/23.0):

Carlos Beltran is arguably the most unappreciated player of our generation. He is enjoying a HOF career thus far thanks to plus offense, plus defense, and plus base running. He could be entering the the end of his career with lots of injuries the past couple seasons, but what he’s done so far with his bat is enough for him to crack the top ten.

9. Jorge Posada (6505 PA, .277/.379/.481/.371/128/24.9):

Trying to place Posada and Beltran was tough and could have gone either way. Posada does have better numbers, but less of a sample size. However, that sample size is just a 300 PA difference. Posada has better offensive numbers in regards to OBP, wOBA, wRC+, and RAA. Not only that, but he put those numbers up as a catcher. That is what puts him ahead of Beltran for me. Sure, Posada is old and may run out of gas soon (but he is showing no signs of slowing down) while Beltran still might have something left in the tank once he gets healthy, but I’m not here to project the future.

8. Mark Teixeira (4988 PA, .286/.376/.535/.387/136/31.6):

Yes, he has under 5000 career PA, so it may be unfair to compare him to guys with 9000 PA and switch-hitters who have suffered a decline phase. But few switch hitters have started their careers the way Tex has. In his eighth season, he already has four seasons of .400+ wOBA and 148+ wRC. Carlos Beltran and Jorge Posada combined have just four seasons of .400+ wOBA. Mark has a legitimate case to be #8 on this list.

7. Bernie Williams (9053 PA, .297/.381/.477/.371/128/25.9):

Bernie and Posada have eerily similar numbers. Both have the same exact wOBA and wRC+ (.371 wOBA; 128 wRC+). The difference here though is the sample size. Bernie has about 2500 more PA than Posada, which means his numbers have his decline phase factored in, whereas Posada does not. Williams had a much better peak than Posada, which shows me he was a better switch-hitter. From 1996-2002 Bernie’s wRC+ never dipped below 141 and his career high was 162 in the magical 1998 season. Both were teammates from 1995-2006, and Bernie produced more offensively, if only slightly. It’s a shame his defense was horrifically bad, because he has the offensive numbers of a HOF’er.

6. Eddie Murray (12817 PA, .287/.359/.476/131/25.7):

In his prime, Murray was a fantastic hitter. He hung on just a bit too long, which hurt his overall numbers. Despite that, he still ranks in the middle of the pack on the list. From his rookie season in 1977 to his final season in LA in 1990, Murray was a stud with the bat. He posted a wRC+ six times, including five straight seasons from 1981-1985. Talk about raking.

5. Pete Rose (15861 PA, .303/.375/.409/.353/125/19.4):

This list wouldn’t be complete without baseballs all-time hits leader. If Murray suffered from a decline phase, than Rose was killed by it. He played about five seasons too many, when he was a fringe replacement level player. Despite a massive decline phase, he still has great career numbers that include a .375 OBP and 125 wRC+. But his prime was amazing. From 1965-1979 he truly was a hit king. He posted an excellent wOBA and wRC+ in fifteen consecutive seasons while playing a bevvy of positions. It’s easy to discount Rose for his overall numbers, but lets not forget that for the bulk of his playing days, he was truly a special player.

4. Tim Raines (10359 PA, .294/.385/.425/.374/137/30.3):

This is the point in the list where hitters have distinguished themselves. From Raines forward, the hitters are clearly superior to other names on the list. Looking at Raines though, it truly is a shame that only stat-heads recognize his greatness. He was an on-base god and one of the best players of his generation. Oh yeah, did I mention he is arguably the best base stealer of all-time with 808 stolen bases at an 85% success rate? No. Well, now I did. I love me some Tim Raines.

3. Lance Berkman (6619 PA, .297/.410/.549/.405/149/44.2):

I know he is having a bad season and it seems like his decline is swiftly approaching, which is to be expected with his body type, but look at those numbers. A .410 OBP! A .405 wOBA! A 149 wRC+! Holy cow! He has four seasons of 160+ wRC+. That is special. Lance Berkman surely was one of the best hitters of the past decade and quite frankly, of all-time. Yes, I know Minute Maid is a big hitters park, but he has nearly the same numbers on the road as he does at home. The dood is legit.

2. Chipper Jones (9535 PA, .306/.406/.536/.402/147/42.5):

Ah, Chipper Jones. He is the fifth active player on the list- and the best hitter of them all. While Berkman has similar numbers (and some better), Jones gets the edge. He has been killing the ball for a lot longer than Berkman has. Jones has never had a poor or even average offensive season, and has been an OBP monster/machine/etc.

1. Mickey Mantle (9909 PA, .298/.421/.557/.431/177/64.2):

Do I even need to explain this one? 177 wRC+…insane. It’s 30 higher than Chipper Jones, who ranks #2 on this list. Need I say more?

Well, there you go. Hope you enjoyed. Here’s a rough order of 11-15, or those who missed the cut.

11. Roberto Alomar

12. George Davis

13. Frankie Frisch

14. Max Carey

15. Victor Martinez


AL Gold Glove Winners

November 10, 2009

1B: Teixeira

2B: Polanco

3B: Longoria

SS: Jeter

OF: A. Jones

OF: Ichiro

OF: Hunter

C: Mauer (He’ll win this until hes no longer a catcher, you can write that down)

P: Buehrle

Guitierez doesn’t win. Super Duper Failure on the voters part.

I think Andrus should have been the SS choice for GG, but these choices aren’t “horrible” like some years.

Did Yankees off-season pick-ups live up to their contracts?

November 6, 2009

Unless you live under a rock, you know that after the 2008 season the Yankees handed out $423 million between CC Sabathia, AJ Burnett, and Mark Teixeira while also trading for Nick Swisher. You also know that all four had good seasons and were major factors in the Yankees World Series run. But did they live up to their 2009 salaries?

Nick Swisher, $5.3 million:

Last November the Yankees got their off-season started with a bang by trading for Nick Swisher, while his value was at it’s lowest following a poor 2008 season. What did the Yankees get? They got a line of .371/.498/.375wOBA, of which the last two were career highs. Swisher also sported solid defense with a -1.2 UZR/150 in right field. Overall, Swisher had a WAR of 3.5. Essentially, he was worth around $16 million, but was paid 1/3 of that price. Between his contract and who the Yankees gave up to get him, talk about a bargain.

CC Sabathia, $14 million:

After inking a deal that will give him $161 million over seven years, Sabathia became the second richest Yankee and the richest pitcher in baseball. While his season wasn’t as good as it was in 2007 or 2008, Sabathia had a good season nonetheless. Over the course of 230 innings, he had a 3.37 ERA, 3.39 FIP, and 3.95 tRA. Moreover, he had a 7.71 K/9, 2.62 BB/9, and 0.70 HR/9. CC had a good season, and then a fantastic postseason. His WAR was 6.0, the third best WAR of his career, and it means that he was worth about $27 million. That’s almost double what he was paid. Not bad.

AJ Burnett, $16.5 million:

Right after the Yankees signed Sabathia, the Yankees inked Burnett to a deal worth $82.5 million over five seasons. Unlike Sabathia, Burnett didn’t have the season people were expecting. He had a 4.04 ERA, 4.33 FIP, and 4.74 tRA, all of which are above his career average. The main reasons for a down season were his BB and HR rates, which were 4.22 and 1.09, respectively. Both rates are not just high, but well above his career average. Despite all that, he still posted a 3.1 WAR, meaning he was worth about $14 million. He was paid more than he earned, but only slightly.

Mark Teixeira, $20 million:

Many people thought Teixeira was not going to be a Yankee, but alas towards the end of December he signed a contract paying him $180 million over eight seasons. After a dissapointing April, Mark turned on the lights and posted a final line of .383/.565/.402wOBA. He also played excellent defense, something New York hasn’t seen from a first basemen in a long time. Teixeira’s WAR was 5.1, so he was worth about $23 million, so essentially he earned just about what he was paid.

In the end, the Yankees made some great signings. Maybe down the road the contracts won’t look so good, but for right now all four moves look brilliant. Every player had a signifcant impact on winning the World Series. In total the Yankees paid those four players $55.8 million. In total, those players were worth about $80 million. Talk about making all the right moves.

A-Rod, D-Rob, and Mark Teixeira

October 10, 2009

That is all.

4PARL end of season awards

October 8, 2009

It’s that time of the year again where people start mentioning their official votes for MLB season awards. If we had a vote, this is how it’d go down:

AL MVP:

Disco- Joe Mauer

Bballer- Zack Greinke

Trekker- Joe Mauer

Twaco- Joe Mauer

NL MVP:

Disco- Albert Pujols

Bballer- Albert Pujols

Trekker- Albert Pujols

Twaco- Albert Pujols

AL Cy Young:

Disco- Zack Greinke

Bballer- Zack Greinke

Trekker- Zack Greinke

Twaco- Zack Greinke

NL Cy Young:

Disco- Tim Lincecum

Bballer- Tim Lincecum

Trekker- Chris Carpenter

Twaco- Tim Lincecum

AL Rookie of Year:

Disco- Brett Anderson

Bballer- Elvis Andrus

Trekker- Jeff Niemann

Twaco- Brett Anderson

NL Rookie of Year:

Disco- Andrew McCutchen

Bballer- Garret Jones

Trekker- Andrew McCutchen

Twaco- Andrew McCutchen

AL DHL Delivery Man of Year:

Disco- Mariano Rivera

Bballer- Andrew Bailey

Trekker- Mariano Rivera

Twaco- Mariano Rivera

NL DHL Delivery Man of Year:

Disco- Jon Broxton

Bballer- Jon Broxton

Trekker- Jon Broxton

Twaco- Jon Broxton

Disco’s Silver Sluggers:

C- Joe Mauer; Brian McCann

1b- Miguel Cabrera; Albert Pujols

2b- Ben Zobrist; Chase Utley

3b- Alex Rodriguez; Pablo Sandoval

SS- Derek Jeter; Hanley Ramirez

OF- Jason Bay, JD Drew, Shin-soo Choo; Ryan Braun, Adam Dunn, Justin Upton

DH- Adam Lind

*Kevin Youkilis deserves props. He split between 1b/3b so I didn’t give him the benefit at 1b or 3b.

Bballer’s Silver Sluggers:

C- Joe Mauer; Brian McCann

1b- Miguel Cabrera; Albert Pujols

2b- Ben Zobrist; Chase Utley

3b- Kevin Youkilis; Ryan Zimmerman

SS- Derek Jeter; Hanley Ramirez

OF- Jason Bay, JD Drew, Adam Lind; Justin Upton, Jayson Werth, Ryan Braun

DH- Hideki Matsui

Trekker’s Silver Sluggers:

C- Joe Mauer; Brian McCann

1b- Miguel Cabrera; Albert Pujols

2b- Ben Zobrist; Chase Utley

3b- Alex Rodriguez; Pablo Sandoval

SS- Derek Jeter; Hanley Ramirez

OF- Jason Bay, Adam Lind, Shin-Soo Choo; Justin Upton, Adam Dunn, Ryan Braun

DH- Jason Kubel

Twaco’s Silver Sluggers:

C- Joe Mauer; Brian McCann

1b- Kevin Youkilis; Albert Pujols

2b- Ben Zobrist; Chase Utley

3B- Alex Rodriguez; Pablo Sandoval

SS- Derek Jeter; Hanley Ramirez

OF- Jason Bay, Adam Lind, JD Drew; Justin Upton, Ryan Braun, Adam Dunn

DH- Hideki Matsui

Disco’s Gold Gloves:

C- Kurt Suzuki; Yadier Molina

1b- Mark Teixeira; James Loney

2b- Chase Utley; Dustin Pedroia

3B- Evan Longoria; Ryan Zimmerman

SS- Elvis Andrus; Troy Tulowitzki

OF- Franklin Guitierez, Ryan Sweeney, David DeJesus; Nyjer Morgan, Mike Cameron, Randy Winn

Bballer’s Gold Glovers:

C- Joe Mauer; Yadier Molina

1b- Kevin Youkilis; Adrian Gonzalez

2b- Placido Polanco; Chase Utley

3b- Evan Longoria; Ryan Zimmerman

SS- Jason Bartlett; JJ Hardy

OF- Franklin Guitierez, Carl Crawford, BJ Upton; Mike Cameron, Colby Rasmus, Raul Ibanez

Trekker’s Gold Glovers:

C- Joe Mauer; Yadier Molina

1b- Mark Teixeira; Adrian Gonzalez

2b- Dustin Pedroia; Chase Utley

3b- Evan Longoria; Ryan Zimmerman

SS- Elvis Andrus; Rafael Furcal

OF- Ichiro, Franklin Guitierez, Carl Crawford; Nyjer Morgan, Mike Cameron, Colby Rasmus

Twaco’s Gold Glovers:

C- Joe Mauer; Yadier Molina

1b- Mark Teixeira; Albert Pujols

2b- Dustin Pedroia; Chase Utley

3B- Evan Longoria; Ryan Zimmerman

SS- Elvis Andrus; Rafael Furcal

OF- Nelson Cruz, Franklin Guitierez, David DeJesus; Justin Upton, Mike Cameron, Raul Ibanez

Discussion question: What is your current top 5 in the AL MVP voting?

August 27, 2009

Here is an opinion i recently posted after glancin at a couple of stats…

Joe Mauer
Zack Greinke
Ben Zobrist
Justin Verlander
Derek Jeter

HM Evan Longoria, Marco Scutaro, Roy Halladay, Miguel Cabrera,

Also, Mark Teixera may, or may not be in my top 10, i’d need to look much more in depth.