Posted tagged ‘Nelson Cruz’

Adrian Beltre is likely headed to Arlington

January 4, 2011

The signing is not official yet, but it appears that Adrian Beltre will sign a 6/$96mil deal to be a Texas Ranger through the 2016 season. Damn, that’s a lot of money.

To me, this is kind of a risky deal. $96mil is a lot of money, especially when that money will be going to player who will be in their mid-thirties for the majority of the contract and said player gets more of his value from his fantastic defense. For a young team that can a World Series RIGHT NOW it’s good bring in quality players, but this deal could potentially handcuff them down the road. Yes, Texas is a growing market and they have visions of being a franchise that can support a $100mil+ payroll. But they have a lot of young/good players who will want expensive extensions themselves (Hamilton, Josh; Wilson, CJ; Cruz, Nelson; Feliz, Neftali). Giving an old Beltre $16mil a season may prevent them keeping a Nelson Cruz or CJ Wilson.

I do think Texas is a good destination for Beltre. He is a good hitter, but not as good as his 2010 season suggests. He has power and mediocre on base skills. In a pitcher’s park in Seattle, he put up average numbers. In a hitters park in Boston, with some good fortune, he put up amazing numbers. Texas is a hitters park as well, so I think between that and an age related decline in offensive skill, his offensive numbers should be somewhere between the numbers he put up in Seattle and Boston- but closer to Seattle.

Moreover, he will continue to be a quality defender. However, the glove does slow with age. Now, he is an elite defender so I don’t think he’ll forget how to field a baseball. What I do believe will happen is that he will from a +10 to a +15 fielder, to a +5 fielder. Defense is where he gets a lot of value, so if his defense declines some, Texas may find themselves overpaying for Beltre.

Looking ahead to 2011, I believe Beltre has a true talent WAR level around 4 WAR, which is pretty much what he was in Seattle. In 2011 I see him being worth 10 runs offensively, 10 runs defensively, 20 runs through replacement level, and he should have about a 2 run positional adjustment. So I am predicting a 4.2 WAR.

So yeah, according to my figures it’s about a fair deal. I can see that. However, that doesn’t make him worth. As I said before, it’s risky. He could pay off right now. The team is a World Series contender and he gives them a legitimate chance to win it all. Plus, he is still a quality player and will be worth $16mil in all likelihood. However, come 2014 and beyond, he could have the type of contract that Texas will be looking to unload.

As for Beltre, he proved patience is a virtue.

 

4PARL end of season awards

October 8, 2009

It’s that time of the year again where people start mentioning their official votes for MLB season awards. If we had a vote, this is how it’d go down:

AL MVP:

Disco- Joe Mauer

Bballer- Zack Greinke

Trekker- Joe Mauer

Twaco- Joe Mauer

NL MVP:

Disco- Albert Pujols

Bballer- Albert Pujols

Trekker- Albert Pujols

Twaco- Albert Pujols

AL Cy Young:

Disco- Zack Greinke

Bballer- Zack Greinke

Trekker- Zack Greinke

Twaco- Zack Greinke

NL Cy Young:

Disco- Tim Lincecum

Bballer- Tim Lincecum

Trekker- Chris Carpenter

Twaco- Tim Lincecum

AL Rookie of Year:

Disco- Brett Anderson

Bballer- Elvis Andrus

Trekker- Jeff Niemann

Twaco- Brett Anderson

NL Rookie of Year:

Disco- Andrew McCutchen

Bballer- Garret Jones

Trekker- Andrew McCutchen

Twaco- Andrew McCutchen

AL DHL Delivery Man of Year:

Disco- Mariano Rivera

Bballer- Andrew Bailey

Trekker- Mariano Rivera

Twaco- Mariano Rivera

NL DHL Delivery Man of Year:

Disco- Jon Broxton

Bballer- Jon Broxton

Trekker- Jon Broxton

Twaco- Jon Broxton

Disco’s Silver Sluggers:

C- Joe Mauer; Brian McCann

1b- Miguel Cabrera; Albert Pujols

2b- Ben Zobrist; Chase Utley

3b- Alex Rodriguez; Pablo Sandoval

SS- Derek Jeter; Hanley Ramirez

OF- Jason Bay, JD Drew, Shin-soo Choo; Ryan Braun, Adam Dunn, Justin Upton

DH- Adam Lind

*Kevin Youkilis deserves props. He split between 1b/3b so I didn’t give him the benefit at 1b or 3b.

Bballer’s Silver Sluggers:

C- Joe Mauer; Brian McCann

1b- Miguel Cabrera; Albert Pujols

2b- Ben Zobrist; Chase Utley

3b- Kevin Youkilis; Ryan Zimmerman

SS- Derek Jeter; Hanley Ramirez

OF- Jason Bay, JD Drew, Adam Lind; Justin Upton, Jayson Werth, Ryan Braun

DH- Hideki Matsui

Trekker’s Silver Sluggers:

C- Joe Mauer; Brian McCann

1b- Miguel Cabrera; Albert Pujols

2b- Ben Zobrist; Chase Utley

3b- Alex Rodriguez; Pablo Sandoval

SS- Derek Jeter; Hanley Ramirez

OF- Jason Bay, Adam Lind, Shin-Soo Choo; Justin Upton, Adam Dunn, Ryan Braun

DH- Jason Kubel

Twaco’s Silver Sluggers:

C- Joe Mauer; Brian McCann

1b- Kevin Youkilis; Albert Pujols

2b- Ben Zobrist; Chase Utley

3B- Alex Rodriguez; Pablo Sandoval

SS- Derek Jeter; Hanley Ramirez

OF- Jason Bay, Adam Lind, JD Drew; Justin Upton, Ryan Braun, Adam Dunn

DH- Hideki Matsui

Disco’s Gold Gloves:

C- Kurt Suzuki; Yadier Molina

1b- Mark Teixeira; James Loney

2b- Chase Utley; Dustin Pedroia

3B- Evan Longoria; Ryan Zimmerman

SS- Elvis Andrus; Troy Tulowitzki

OF- Franklin Guitierez, Ryan Sweeney, David DeJesus; Nyjer Morgan, Mike Cameron, Randy Winn

Bballer’s Gold Glovers:

C- Joe Mauer; Yadier Molina

1b- Kevin Youkilis; Adrian Gonzalez

2b- Placido Polanco; Chase Utley

3b- Evan Longoria; Ryan Zimmerman

SS- Jason Bartlett; JJ Hardy

OF- Franklin Guitierez, Carl Crawford, BJ Upton; Mike Cameron, Colby Rasmus, Raul Ibanez

Trekker’s Gold Glovers:

C- Joe Mauer; Yadier Molina

1b- Mark Teixeira; Adrian Gonzalez

2b- Dustin Pedroia; Chase Utley

3b- Evan Longoria; Ryan Zimmerman

SS- Elvis Andrus; Rafael Furcal

OF- Ichiro, Franklin Guitierez, Carl Crawford; Nyjer Morgan, Mike Cameron, Colby Rasmus

Twaco’s Gold Glovers:

C- Joe Mauer; Yadier Molina

1b- Mark Teixeira; Albert Pujols

2b- Dustin Pedroia; Chase Utley

3B- Evan Longoria; Ryan Zimmerman

SS- Elvis Andrus; Rafael Furcal

OF- Nelson Cruz, Franklin Guitierez, David DeJesus; Justin Upton, Mike Cameron, Raul Ibanez