Posted tagged ‘Pablo Sandoval’

Carlos Gonzalez, get used to Denver, Colorado

January 4, 2011

Because you just signed a 7/$80mil extension!

Carlos likes this deal, the Rockies like this deal, and I…kind of like and don’t like the deal.

He has two years of service time I believe, so he would be making about half a mil in 2011, and then would be arbitration eligible from 2012-2014.

The Fans think Gonzalez will produce 5.3 fWAR in 2011. I am not that optimistic on CarGo. To be safe, let’s say from 2012-2014, his age 27-29 seasons, that he is 4 WAR, 4.5 WAR, 5 WAR. The $ per WAR will be $4.5mil, $5mil, and $5.5mil. So using the 40/60/80 scale he would have made $7.2mil in 2012, $13.5mil in 2013, and $22mil in 2014. Instead, he will be paid an average of $11.4mil. So, with the contract over the next four seasons he will make about $45.7mil. Using my estimates, he would have otherwise been paid (roughly) $43.2mil. So Colorado may be reaching, but remember he is a fan favorite and a good player who can contribute to a winning team NOW he is worth even more to Colorado. Also, my WAR figures are just estimates. He could continue to be a 6 WAR player. Or he could be a 2 WAR player and Colorado will grossly overpay.

With the deal, Colorado will also be buying out three years of free agency. This is where Colorado can really make their savings. He would have been a free agent while still in his theoretical prime. If he continues to produce at a 4-5 WAR level, he will be a highly attractive free agent and one can only imagine that contracts will be even larger by the year 2014-2015. So they probably will be making a bargain in the years 2015-2017 paying him $11.4mil. In other words, for his FA years they are paying him 3/34.2mil. I can only imagine he would top that in free agency.

So yes, I do like the deal for Colorado in the sense they probably will be saving money on a good player in the long run. Because in the short run they are not really making any savings. Carlos Gonzalez just played in his first full season and did have some good luck. His BB% was a low 6.3% and his BABIP was .384. That almost certainly will come down. While his power his real, I doubt he repeats such a high OBP. I see it more in the .340-.350 range. I do not think, despite being a free swinger, he will completely fall apart like Pablo Sandoval. For 1) Carlos Gonzalez has a LD% above 20%, where Sandoval did not have as high LD rates 2) Pablo hit a lot more grounders than Gonzalez 3) While both were free swingers, Sandoval was a lot, lot, lot worse at swinging at pitches outside the zone and swinging in general. But he will regress, production wise. His talent level may rise, but his production will certainly drop and may never reach his epic 2010 performance again.

With all that said, that is why I kind of don’t like the deal. He’s played one full season. Sure it was great, but as I pointed out he is due for some natural regression. He is cost-controlled for another four seasons, including one season under $1mil. So why not wait another season? See if he regresses, or is just an amazing player who really is worth 6 WAR. You will save money by paying him 500K in 2011, instead of $11.4mil plus a bonus, and could probably sign him to a similar, if not better, deal after the 2011 season.

Again, the deal is solid. In all likelihood, CarGo will need to average around 2 WAR a season to justify the money he is being paid. Now, don’t confuse that for meaning he is actually worth it if you know what I mean. From a production standpoint, if he is a 2 WAR player he should be about $11mil per season, but I’m sure Colorado believes he is better. If they truly thought he would be a 2 WAR player, they would not bother signing him to a seven year deal. What’s the point to keeping an average player long term? None.

I personally think Cargo will be about a .280/.345/.525 player who will provide average defense. That should translate to around 4 WAR (depending on PT, defense, position), so in the long run this will turn out to be a good deal for Colorado. It would be even better if he do that as a CENTER FIELDER and not a corner outfielder.  However, Colorado did have a better option on the table and that option was to wait at least another year to negotiate a contract with Gonzalez.

Ubaldo Jiminez outduels Tim Lincecum

June 1, 2010

In what was billed as the pitching matchup of the year, Ubaldo Jiminez and the Colorado Rockies took on two-time reigning Cy Young Tim Lincecum of the San Francisco Giants in San Fran on Memorial Day.

Although Timmy disappointed, Ubaldo put on a show for those who tuned in to see these two beasts go at it. Ubaldo hurled a complete game shutout, yielding just six base runners on four hits and two walks. Jiminez had nine strikeouts and induced another ten outs via ground ball. Adding to his dominance, only one ball put in play was classified as a line drive. And outside Pablo Sandoval, who had three of the Giants four hits, San Francisco batters were dead.

Jiminez threw 128 pitches, 80 of which were strikes. good for a strike % of 62.5. He finished the day with a .359 WPA which will go toward his already league leading total of .291.

On the flip side, Tim Lincecum was pretty horrible. He threw 121 pitches in just 5.2 innings, in part due to his five walks and three strikeouts. That marks the first time this season he walked more people than he struck out. It’s also the third consecutive start he has not reached the sixth inning.

In those past three starts or 15.1 innings (317 pitches) he has allowed seventeen hits, 14 earned runs, and fifteen walks to just 14 strikeouts. After a scorching start to the season, Lincecum is hitting the wall- hard. His problem- walks. Without looking further into it, I would have to assume it’s a mechanical issue that is correctable. Sure, it’s been just three starts but it’s been three putrid starts by someone who dominated hitters for two straight seasons. I wouldn’t be worried, but it is a puzzling situation in the Bay for Tim Lincecum.

While one ace continues to soar, another continues his freefall. Continue to keep your eyes on these two pitches the remaining of the season. Ubaldo could dethrone Timmy as the best pitcher in the West, as well as the National League.

4PARL end of season awards

October 8, 2009

It’s that time of the year again where people start mentioning their official votes for MLB season awards. If we had a vote, this is how it’d go down:

AL MVP:

Disco- Joe Mauer

Bballer- Zack Greinke

Trekker- Joe Mauer

Twaco- Joe Mauer

NL MVP:

Disco- Albert Pujols

Bballer- Albert Pujols

Trekker- Albert Pujols

Twaco- Albert Pujols

AL Cy Young:

Disco- Zack Greinke

Bballer- Zack Greinke

Trekker- Zack Greinke

Twaco- Zack Greinke

NL Cy Young:

Disco- Tim Lincecum

Bballer- Tim Lincecum

Trekker- Chris Carpenter

Twaco- Tim Lincecum

AL Rookie of Year:

Disco- Brett Anderson

Bballer- Elvis Andrus

Trekker- Jeff Niemann

Twaco- Brett Anderson

NL Rookie of Year:

Disco- Andrew McCutchen

Bballer- Garret Jones

Trekker- Andrew McCutchen

Twaco- Andrew McCutchen

AL DHL Delivery Man of Year:

Disco- Mariano Rivera

Bballer- Andrew Bailey

Trekker- Mariano Rivera

Twaco- Mariano Rivera

NL DHL Delivery Man of Year:

Disco- Jon Broxton

Bballer- Jon Broxton

Trekker- Jon Broxton

Twaco- Jon Broxton

Disco’s Silver Sluggers:

C- Joe Mauer; Brian McCann

1b- Miguel Cabrera; Albert Pujols

2b- Ben Zobrist; Chase Utley

3b- Alex Rodriguez; Pablo Sandoval

SS- Derek Jeter; Hanley Ramirez

OF- Jason Bay, JD Drew, Shin-soo Choo; Ryan Braun, Adam Dunn, Justin Upton

DH- Adam Lind

*Kevin Youkilis deserves props. He split between 1b/3b so I didn’t give him the benefit at 1b or 3b.

Bballer’s Silver Sluggers:

C- Joe Mauer; Brian McCann

1b- Miguel Cabrera; Albert Pujols

2b- Ben Zobrist; Chase Utley

3b- Kevin Youkilis; Ryan Zimmerman

SS- Derek Jeter; Hanley Ramirez

OF- Jason Bay, JD Drew, Adam Lind; Justin Upton, Jayson Werth, Ryan Braun

DH- Hideki Matsui

Trekker’s Silver Sluggers:

C- Joe Mauer; Brian McCann

1b- Miguel Cabrera; Albert Pujols

2b- Ben Zobrist; Chase Utley

3b- Alex Rodriguez; Pablo Sandoval

SS- Derek Jeter; Hanley Ramirez

OF- Jason Bay, Adam Lind, Shin-Soo Choo; Justin Upton, Adam Dunn, Ryan Braun

DH- Jason Kubel

Twaco’s Silver Sluggers:

C- Joe Mauer; Brian McCann

1b- Kevin Youkilis; Albert Pujols

2b- Ben Zobrist; Chase Utley

3B- Alex Rodriguez; Pablo Sandoval

SS- Derek Jeter; Hanley Ramirez

OF- Jason Bay, Adam Lind, JD Drew; Justin Upton, Ryan Braun, Adam Dunn

DH- Hideki Matsui

Disco’s Gold Gloves:

C- Kurt Suzuki; Yadier Molina

1b- Mark Teixeira; James Loney

2b- Chase Utley; Dustin Pedroia

3B- Evan Longoria; Ryan Zimmerman

SS- Elvis Andrus; Troy Tulowitzki

OF- Franklin Guitierez, Ryan Sweeney, David DeJesus; Nyjer Morgan, Mike Cameron, Randy Winn

Bballer’s Gold Glovers:

C- Joe Mauer; Yadier Molina

1b- Kevin Youkilis; Adrian Gonzalez

2b- Placido Polanco; Chase Utley

3b- Evan Longoria; Ryan Zimmerman

SS- Jason Bartlett; JJ Hardy

OF- Franklin Guitierez, Carl Crawford, BJ Upton; Mike Cameron, Colby Rasmus, Raul Ibanez

Trekker’s Gold Glovers:

C- Joe Mauer; Yadier Molina

1b- Mark Teixeira; Adrian Gonzalez

2b- Dustin Pedroia; Chase Utley

3b- Evan Longoria; Ryan Zimmerman

SS- Elvis Andrus; Rafael Furcal

OF- Ichiro, Franklin Guitierez, Carl Crawford; Nyjer Morgan, Mike Cameron, Colby Rasmus

Twaco’s Gold Glovers:

C- Joe Mauer; Yadier Molina

1b- Mark Teixeira; Albert Pujols

2b- Dustin Pedroia; Chase Utley

3B- Evan Longoria; Ryan Zimmerman

SS- Elvis Andrus; Rafael Furcal

OF- Nelson Cruz, Franklin Guitierez, David DeJesus; Justin Upton, Mike Cameron, Raul Ibanez

Handicapping the Awards – NL MVP Version

July 17, 2009

There are certain players that come around seemingly once a generation that have the ability to command the MVP award every single season. Unfortunately for every other player in the National League we are currently in the prime years of one of those players. That man of course, Albert Pujols, 1st baseman of the St. Louis Cardinals.

That doesn’t mean the 2009 National League MVP vote is guaranteed after 90 games but Prince Albert certainly seems to be running away with the award. None the less here is a breakdown with a review of the 1st half and 2nd half projections.

The Man, the Future Legend, and the MVP Favorite:

Albert Pujols – 1B – St. Louis Cardinals (5.1 WAR)

As stated above the 2009 NL MVP is seemingly Albert Pujols to lose after a little more than half the season. It no longer seems like a question of Pujols being the MVP favorite but rather if he can actually win the Triple Crown. Posting a line of .332/.456/.723 with a major league leading 32 home runs and 87 RBI lead people to believe he can accomplish this feat. More amazing though is that ZIPS projects an almost equally good 2nd half leading to a final line of .332/.450/.690 with 51 home runs and 144 RBI. Regardless is Albert delivers the fans of St. Louis a division title that stat line would almost assuredly bring home his third NL MVP.

2nd Tier…Those in contention if Albert Falters

Chase Utley – 2B – Philadelphia Phillies (4.8 WAR)

“Nothing is certain but death and taxes”…Chase Utley being the best 2nd baseman in baseball and not getting the MVP recognition come the end of September is close to adding itself to that short list. With a line of .312/.429/.572 his usual stellar defense (albeit with only a 1.6 UZR to this point in the season) Utley has once again been the best player on a very good Phillies team. If he can match the ZIPS projections for the rest of the season of .300/.395/.587 to finish at .307/.413/.562 with 35 homeruns and 114 RBI there is no doubt he will once again deserve to win an MVP but it’s almost as certain that he will finish behind his own not so deserving team mates.

Prince Fielder – 1B – Milwaukee Brewers (4.0 WAR)

When it comes to the MVP vote the BBWAA whether right or wrong wants to attach team success to an individual award and in the case of Prince Fielder along with our remaining nominees MVP hopes could sink or float with the success or failures of their team. In almost any other year a 4.0 WAR with a line of .315/.444/.621 would have any 1B in MVP contention (but with Pujols in the league it’s not like every other year). A final projection of .304/.426/.605 with 43 Homeruns and 140+ RBI and a Milwaukee division title or wild card spot could vault the big man up many voters’ ballots.

Hanley Ramirez – SS – Florida Marlins (3.9 WAR)

The young short stop of the Marlins seems destined to compete with Mauer as the best post Pujols player in a few years but his performance in 2009 should not be discounted. With improved defense and his annual electrifying offensive production Hanley Ramirez should once again be in the mix for NL MVP at season’s end. With a first half of .346/.408/.562 and 61 RBI, Ramirez like Fielder and Utley would be serious MVP threats in almost any other season. If the Marlins centerpiece can increase that 65% stolen base percentage to a more respectable level and continue to improve his defense along with matching his final line projection of .333/.402/.553 he could be the most serious threat to Pujols for the MVP and stand in his way of the triple crown by winning the NL batting title.

The Long Shot

Pablo Sandoval – 1B/3B – San Francisco Giants (3.1 WAR)

Every baseball season a team seemingly comes out of nowhere to make a charge for the playoffs. In the 2009 National League it is the pitching heavy San Francisco Giants. Luckily for Sandoval the media could fall in love with the loveable ‘Kung Fu Panda’ whom if he could match his first half of .333/.385/.578      15 home runs and 55 RBI and lead the anemic Giants offense to a wild card spot his name could be that out of nowhere candidate we seem to find every October. Sandoval’s 2nd half ZIPS projections of .298/.333/.488 don’t indicate that we’re in for an MVP run but weirder things have happened.

Predictions

I realize that I left off the Dodgers superstar CF Matt Kemp, but almost half his value is in his defense (10.2 UZR) and I would be surprised if he maintained his Andruw Jones like defensive performance for the entire season. As for Raul Ibanez he has been magnificent but with Utley and Ryan Howard destined for another big Homerun and RBI second half I can’t find the way he actually wins the NL MVP 2009. With all that said, I have to go with the most boring route possible. Unless something dramatic happens Albert Pujols is going to win his 3rd National League MVP and officially supplant himself as one of the true legends of the game.