Posted tagged ‘Pedro Martinez’

2015 Hall of Fame Voting

January 5, 2015

My 2015 MLB Hall of Fame Ballot. Sorry for the typos and poor grammar- I’m writing this with my downtime at work.

1) Pedro Martinez

2827.1 IP, 10.04 K/9, 2.42 BB/9, 0.76 HR/9, 2.91 FIP, 87.1 fWAR

7 Best fWAR seasons: 11.9, 9.9, 8.6, 7.8, 7.8, 6.4, 5.8

6+ fWAR total: 16.4; fWAR/200IP: 6.16

His average season was MVP quality. 1999 may have been the best pitching season ever. In the AL East. During the highest run scoring era in baseball history. Yeah, this is a no-doubter.

2) Randy Johnson

4135.1 IP, 10.61 K/9, 3.26 BB/9, 0.89 HR/9, 3.19 FIP, 111.7 fWAR

7 Best fWAR seasons: 10.4, 9.6, 9.5, 9.5, 9.5, 8, 7.7

6+ fWAR total: 22.2; fWAR/200IP: 5.40

I think his seven best fWAR seasons speak for his dominance. Another no-doubter.

3) Curt Schilling

3261 IP, 8.60 K/9, 1.96 BB/9, 0.96 HR/9, 3.23 FIP, 83.2 fWAR

7 Best fWAR seasons: 9.3, 8.4, 8.3, 7.4, 7.3, 5.7, 5.4

6+ fWAR total: 10.7; fWAR/200IP: 5.10

If his regular season numbers aren’t impressive enough, then his postseason stats give him bonus points that make him a HOF pitcher.

4) Mike Mussina

3562.2 IP, 7.11 K/9, 1.98 BB/9, 0.95 HR/9, 3.57 FIP, 82.5 fWAR

7 Best fWAR seasons: 6.9, 6.2, 6.2, 5.8, 5.4, 5.3, 5.3

6+ fWAR total: 1.3; fWAR/200IP: 4.63

His peak seasons weren’t on the same level of RJ or Pedro, but he was consistently an MVP level pitcher with 10 seasons of 5+ fWAR. That’s good enough for me, especially for another SP who had to deal with the AL East during the game’s biggest offensive era.

5) John Smoltz

3473 IP, 7.99 K/9, 2.62 BB/9, 0.75 HR/9, 3.24 FIP, 78.7 fWAR

7 Best fWAR seasons: 8.2, 6.7, 5.4, 5.2, 5.2, 5.1, 5.1

6+ fWAR total: 2.9; fWAR/200IP: 4.53

Starting Pitcher fWAR/200IP: 4.41; Relief Pitcher fWAR/200IP: 5.94

Pitched at an All-Star/MVP level as both a starter and reliever. He is close to borderline for me, but was good enough that I feel comfortable voting him in.

6) Mike Piazza

7745 PA, 427 HR, .308/.377/.545/.390/140+, 20.7 defensive runs, 63.5 fWAR

7 Best fWAR seasons: 9.1, 7.4, 6.6, 6.6, 6, 5.8, 4.6

6+ fWAR total: 5.7; fWAR/650PA: 5.33

Best hitter all-time at a position? Hall of Famer for sure.

7) Jeff Bagwell

9431 PA, 449 HR, .297/.394/.588/.415/157+, -138.5 defensive runs, 80.2 fWAR

7 Best fWAR seasons: 8, 7.8, 7.8, 7.7, 6.7, 5.9, 5.5

6+ fWAR total: 8.9; fWAR/650PA: 5.53

Another player whose average season was MVP quality. No doubter for a guy with similar career to Frank Thomas, a first ballot Hall of Famer.

8) Edgar Martinez

8672 PA, 309 HR, .312/.418/.515/.405/149+, -87.1 defensive runs, 65.6 fWAR

7 Best fWAR seasons: 7, 6.1, 6, 5.9, 5.7, 5.5, 5.5

6+ fWAR total: 1.1; fWAR/650PA: 4.92

Much like Piazza is the best offensive catcher ever, Martinez has been the best DH ever. Now, he didn’t play defense and that hurts him. But he was so good offensively, it doesn’t matter. Retiring with a .300+/.400+/.500+ line, even in the context of his era, is incredible. He is like the Mussina of hitters in this class. Consistently great even if he doesn’t have one “all-time” type of season.

9) Tim Raines

10359 PA, 170 HR, 808 SB (85%), .294/.385/.425/.361/125+, -109.6 defensive runs, 66.4 fWAR

7 Best fWAR seasons: 7.2, 6.7, 6.7, 6, 6, 5.5, 3.9

6+ fWAR total: 2.6; fWAR/650PA: 4.17

Raines is the SABR darling of this HOF class (along with Alan Trammell). Upon further review, he is closer to the outside looking in than I originally thought. However, a lot of lower fWAR/650PA is due to the fact he probably did stick around too long. But Raines is the best base stealer/runner of all-time. Rickey Henderson stole more bases, but at lower clip (80% compared to Raines’ 85%). Stealing bases at an 85% clip for a whole career, and to steal that many is amazing. Raines is 5th all-time among SB leaders, and has the highest of SB% of the top five. And base stealing is just one aspect of his game- he was also an OBP machine!

10) Larry Walker

8030 PA, 383 HR, 230 SB, .313/.400/.565/.412/140+, 3.5 defensive runs, 68.9 fWAR

7 Best fWAR seasons: 9.1, 7.6, 5.3, 5.3, 5, 4.7, 4.7

6+ fWAR seasons: 4.7; fWAR/650PA: 5.58

Larry Walker is has knock against him and it’s not Coors Field. It’s his injury history. Yes, he played in the best hitters park in the best hitters era. But his numbers were still far and away better than most of his peers. His home/road splits are drastic- but only because while he was amazing the road he was god-like at home. His per season fWAR totals might seem low but again, that’s due to injury-plagued seasons and this is supported by his MVP level career fWAR/650PA of 5.58. Dude is a Hall of Famer.

Now, I think there are more deserving players. However, a ballot only allows for ten votes. Therefore, I withheld all players who definitely used PED’s and were not just suspected of PED’s. Unlike most people, I don’t care about PED’s when it comes to the HOF. However, on a crowded ballot I won’t put them ahead of other deserving players. Therefore, the rest of eligible players I think are Hall worthy are…

Roger Clemens

4916.2 IP, 8.55 K/9, 2.89 BB/9, 0.66 HR/9, 3.09 FIP, 139.5 fWAR

7 Best fWAR seasons: 10.8, 9.7, 9.1, 9, 8.5, 8.5, 8.1

6+ fWAR total: 21.7; fWAR/200IP: 5.68

Most evidence points toward his first PED use being in 1997 with Toronto. If you look at his fWAR before that during his Boston tenure, he had 83 fWAR or 5.71 fWAR per season in nearly 3000 total innings. Hall of Famer.

Barry Bonds

12606 PA, 762 HR, 514 SB, .298/.444/.607/.435/173+, 67.6 defensive runs, 164 fWAR

7 Best fWAR seasons: 12.5, 12.4, 11.6, 10.5, 10.1, 9.9, 9.6

6+ fWAR total: 34.6; fWAR/650PA: 8.46

Best player of all-time not named Ruth- and that’s only because Ruth was also a good pitcher. HOF’er before he started using in 1999.

Mark McGwire

7660 PA, 583 HR, .263/.394/.588/.415/157+, -138.5, 66.3 fWAR

7 Best fWAR seasons: 8.5, 7.3, 6.3, 6, 5.7, 5.4, 5.1

6+ fWAR total: 4.1; fWAR/650PA: 5.63

I feel the worst about voting for McGwire because he used almost his entire career, if not his whole career, while Bonds and Clemens had HOF careers before their steroid use. But boy, could he hit.

And the following are guys that I am indecisive on- one minute I think they’re in and the next I don’t.

Craig Biggio

12503 PA, 291 HR, 414 SB, .281/.363/.433/.352/115+, -23 defensive runs, 65.1 fWAR

7 Best fWAR seasons: 9.3, 6.5, 6.2, 4.9, 4.8, 4.7, 4.5

6+ fWAR total: 4; fWAR/650PA: 3.38

Biggio is tough. He does have 3000 hits. He does have some superb seasons. But the more I think about him the more I think he was simply a good, All-Star caliber player who had a long career that allowed him to get his 3000 hits. A 3.38 fWAR/650PA is not HOF worthy. But if he retired before he wasn’t good anymore, that number would be better. So for now, I will keep him off the ballot until I can make my mind up either way.

Alan Trammell

9375 PA, 185 HR, 236 SB, .285/.352/.415/.343/111+, 184.4 defensive runs, 63.7 fWAR

7 Best fWAR seasons: 7.7, 6.9, 6.2, 5.7, 5.6, 5.3, 4.3

6+ fWAR total: 2.8′ fWAR/650PA: 4.42

Trammell is one of the game’s great fielding shortstops. He is a HOF worthy defender. Offensively, his numbers don’t look great. But in context of the era, he has really good numbers for a SS and was one of the game’s first great two-way players at that position. A 4.42 fWAR/650PA isn’t ideal for the HOF, but if you take away his first couple seasons and last couple seasons to focus truly on his prime playing days, and that number looks a whole lot better. If it wasn’t a crowded ballot I would vote for him, but that’s not the case. And a result, he only has a couple years left on the ballot and I fear the worst for him.

Nomar Garciaparra

6116 PA, 229 HR, .313/.361/.521/.376/124+, 18.8 defensive runs, 41.5 fWAR

7 Best fWAR seasons: 7.6, 7.3, 6.4, 6.3, 5.7, 4.8, 2.2

6+ fWAR total: 3.6; fWAR/650PA: 4.41

During his peak, Nomar was arguably the best shortstop in baseball- ahead of A-Rod and Jeter. But how much does a peak count. Clearly, he had HOF talent. The only reason he isn’t a legitimate candidate is because he often hurt and it ruined his ability perform well, and put up good full season numbers when he was at his best. I don’t think I’d ever vote for him, but I want his career to recognition.

Gary Sheffield

10947 PA, 509 HR, 253 SB, .292/.393/.514/.391/141+, -300.9 defensive runs, 62.4 fWAR

7 Best fWAR seasons: 7.5, 6.6, 6.5, 6.5, 4.9, 4.6, 3.8

6+ fWAR total: 3.1; fWAR/650PA: 3.71

Again, the average fWAR is low- but he played for a really long time. Plus, Sheffield could hit. Like really hit. He lost 30 wins(!) due to crappy defense and still had 62.4 career fWAR. So that begs the question- should I punish him for being so bad on defense? Or should I recognize him as a phenomenal hitter?

Brian Giles

7836 PA, 287 HR, .291/.400/.502/.388/136+, -80.8 defensive runs, 54.5 fWAR

7 Best fWAR seasons: 6.7, 6.7, 6.3, 5.7, 5.5, 4.8, 4.3

6+ fWAR total: 1.7; fWAR/650PA: 4.52

Giles was a consistent offensive force if he never did have that one above and beyond season like a Larry Walker. But he finished with a career OBP of .400 and SLG over .500. That’s really good. His average fWAR season is also borderline for me. The one thing keeping me from voting for him is a short peak. If he had sustained his prime longer and not simply had a bunch of All-Star level seasons instead of MVP seasons, he would have got my vote.

Lee Smith

1289.1 IP, 8.73 K/9, 3.39 BB/9, 0.62 HR/9, 2.93 FIP, 27.3 fWAR, fWAR/200IP: 4.24

I don’t think Lee Smith is quite a HOF’er. He’s better than I thought, but I wouldn’t put him in. However, if you compare him to other RP in the Hall, he is better. He is better than both Rollie Fingers and Bruce Sutter and on par with Trevor Hoffman, who most likely will be in the Hall of Fame. However, I don’t think the above should be in the Hall which makes this a tough vote. Put him in because inferior pitchers are in, or vote him out because he should be out.

 

This is just all my opinion folks (which is generally right) and if there’s one takeaway it’s this: what a class this is!

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Andy Pettite retires, is he a Hall of Famer?

February 4, 2011

Well, tomorrow Andy Pettitte will officially retire. For the 2011 Yankees, this sucks. While I don’t believe Andy would have pitched as well as he did in 2010, he is a considerably better option than Ivan Nova, Freddy Garcia, Sergio Mitre, etc, etc for a spot in the rotation. So even at $12mil, Andy is worth that to this specific Yankee team. I can only imagine he would be a 1.5-2 win upgrade compared to our current next best option, so he honestly could be the make or break player/reason the Yankees miss out on the playoffs.

But Andy is not coming back, and as a fan, I cannot complain. He’s been a wonderful talent to watch, and a true competitor. I don’t want to sound all MSMish, but his toughness and appetite to win was fun to watch. For many seasons he was the Yankees star pitcher, and while the Yankees aren’t typically known for their pitching, that’s still an impressive label to carry considering how strong a team the Yankees have been while he’s played for them.

Andy Pettitte has had a good career, but is it a Hall of Fame career?

To begin, Pettitte was a true workhorse. He made 30+ starts in thirteen of his sixteen seasons. Moreover, he did everything well that a pitcher could control. He had a 6.63 K rate, 2.83 BB rate, 0.77 HR rate, and has been successful at inducing lots of ground balls, which usually turn into lots of outs. By limiting walks, keeping the ball in the park, and inducing grounders, Pettitte was able to go deep into ballgames and prevent runs, two significant things a pitcher can do to help his team win, and provide value to them. As a result, Andy had a 3.75 FIP and 66.9 fWAR. In fact, his fWAR/200 is 4.4. That’s not just good. That’s Hall of Fame good.

HOWEVER, bWAR disagrees. His bWAR is 50.2, or 3.3/200 IP. That’s a whole win lower than his fWAR/200. Moreover, his WAR goes from above the HOF standard, to well below it. Yikes. So as a rule of thumb, you average the two. His aWAR would be 58.9 and his aWAR/200 would be 3.8.

So Andy is legitimately borderline right now. His aWAR of 58.9, would just about put him on the Hall of Fame line. Of all players that come to mind, I don’t think a single player is more borderline than Andy Pettitte. If there was an actual line or standard to get into the Hall of Fame, it would be the Andy Pettitte line. I mean, his numbers and rate stats are good, but not OUTSTANDING. Yet he made a lot of starts and threw a lot of innings in the seasons he played, gaining a lot of value. He had 1 WAM season, and another TWELVE WAE seasons (and in two of the three seasons he didn’t 3+ WAR he missed half the season and otherwise would have got 3+ WAR). So Andy Pettitte was pretty much an excellent player for his ENTIRE career with a couple near MVP seasons along the way.

Looking at it right now, I can’t make up my mind on Andy. As I said, he is as borderline as it gets. If he got voted in, I’d agree. If he missed out, I wouldn’t complain. HOWEVER, if you had to lean in a certain way, the way to lean is PRO-HOF- for a couple reasons.

For one, we haven’t even looked at his postseason numbers. While he didn’t pitch as well in the postseason (4.17 FIP, 263 innings), he still accumulated a significant chunk of innings in the postseason. Although we don’t have a database of postseason WAR, if those numbers actually counted, I think it would have made Andy’s numbers look better, especially in terms of WAR.

Second, just go to Tom Tango. In 2009 he wrote:

QUOTE:

As I’ve talked about in the past, the best way to get a sense of someone’s place in history is to compare the player to his peers.  And typically, you get about 20-25 players elected to the Hall of Fame for every decade of birth years (with about one-third of those pitchers).

AND today… :

Andy Pettitte was born in June of 1972.  If we look at every pitcher born within 4.5 years of him (the nine years from 1968 to 1976), we get this list:

#1. Pedro
#2. Mussina
#3. Mariano Rivera
#4. Andy Pettitte
#5. Tim Hudson

We see that Pettitte is somewhere on the cusp of good to great.  I look forward to seeing Pettitte’s name on the Hall of Fame ballot for 15 years.  He deserves that much at least.

So if for a given generation 20-25 players make the HOF and 6-8 or so are pitchers, than it looks like Andy Pettitte is easily a HOF’er. That may speak more to the fact that the current generation is weaker than other generations (especially the one preceding it) but either way, it strengthens Andy’s case.

So yeah, Andy Pettitte the take it or leave it HOF candidate.

 

AND just for fun, lets compare him to fellow soft tossing lefty Tom Glavine, who is just about a lock for the HOF.

Pettitte: 3055 IP, 6.63 K/9, 2.83 BB/9, 0.77 HR/9, 66.9 fWAR, 4.4 fWAR/200, 20.1 WAE, 2.4 WAM

Glavine: 4413 IP, 5.32 K/9, 3.06 BB/9, 0.73 HR/9, 68.5 fWAR, 3.1 fWAR/200, 16.2 WAE, 0 WAM

So yeah. Despite tossing about 1400 less innings, Pettitte has pretty much the same fWAR, a much better fWAR/200, and has accumulated more WAE and WAM. If Glavine is a HOF’er, why not Pettitte?

My 2011 Hall of Fame ballot

December 22, 2010

Going off what The Yankee U did earlier today, I will be posting my hypothetical Hall of Fame ballot. Obviously I don’t have a vote, but if I did this is what my ballot would look like (in no order)

1. Bert Blyleven (4970 IP, 3.19 FIP, 87.6 rWAR)

Can we give the man his due, BBWAA? He was an extremely consistent, durable, and GOOD pitcher for a LONG time. If that is not Hall of Fame worthy than I don’t know what is.

2. Roberto Alomar (10400 PA, .300/.371/.443/.365/125 and 68.2 fWAR)

He just missed the 75% mark last year so I strongly believe he gets in this year and deservedly so. He was a phenomenal hitter for a second baseman and could bring it with the glove.

3. Barry Larkin (9057 PA, .295/.371/.444/.366/124 and a 69.8 fWAR)

Larkin is a contemporary of Alomar and arguably a better play than Alomar was. Barry was one of the first shortstops to the revolutionize the offensive side of the position, was a great fielder, and had seasons that were above the 6 WAR MVP threshold.

4. Edgar Martinez (8672 PA, .312/.418/.515/.405/151 and a 71.6 fWAR)

He only got 36.2% of the vote last year which is quite pathetic. And you know it’s because he was a DH. The BBWAA recognizes he was an all-time great hitter, but because he only “played half the game” they are gonna penalize him which is bullshit. The fact is, he was a .300 hitter, .400 OBP guy, and .500 power guy. That is exceptional. Moreover, despite being a DH and incurring a large positional penalty, he still accumulated an fWAR over 70. The man is a Hall of Famer.

5. Tim Raines (10359 PA, .294/.385/.425/.374/137 and a 71.0 fWAR)

Tim Raines is the poster boy for SABR-heads everywhere. The BBWAA shoots him down since he lacked power, was overshadowed by Rickey Henderson, and was a part-time player by the time he retired. But he was an on-base god in his prime. Moreover, he was arguably the best base stealer of all-time as he not only stole a high volume of bases (808) but did so at a super efficient rate (85%). He may never be voted into the Hall of Fame, which truly would be a shame.

6. Mark McGwire (7660 PA, .263/.394/.588/.415/161 and a 70.6 fWAR)

The only reason and I mean ONLY reason for leaving him out of the Hall is the whole steroids issue. When it comes to his on-field production, there is no way around the fact he is a Hall of Famer. I mean, just look at the stat line I posted.

7. Alan Trammell (9375 PA, .285/.352/.415/.434/115 and a 69.5 fWAR)

Trammell is another player who will probably never be recognized by the BBWAA. Why? Because they don’t understand context. Nowadays his offensive numbers don’t seem so great but during the era he played in, for a shortstop, those were some crazy good numbers. He was Cal Ripken before Cal Ripken. Also, the MSM fails to properly weight defense and Trammell was a defensive whiz. He and Lou Whitaker were arguably the best DP tandem in baseball history and yet neither is in the Hall of Fame. Something is wrong with that picture.

8. Jeff Bagwell (9431 PA, .297/.408/.540/.406/152 and an 83.9 fWAR)

Yeah, this one is a no-doubter. Bagwell is one of the best players of his generation and one of the best first baseman of all-time. Not even the BBWAA can screw this one up.

9. Larry Walker (8030 PA, .313/.400/.565/.414/145 and a 72.2 fWAR)

Walker should be another no-doubter. Yes, his offensive numbers were aided by Coors Field. BUT he put up great numbers before he got to Colorado, so he wasn’t just a product of Coors Field. Moreover, he was a remarkable defensive player. He was a career .300/.400/.500 guy which is quite impressive.

10. Kevin Brown (3256 IP, 3.33 FIP, 77.2 fWAR)

K-Brown is just the second pitcher on my ballot and a kind of close call for me. Dominant may not be the first word that comes to mind when you think of him, but that’s because, like Mike Mussina, he was overshadowed by other dominant pitchers such as Pedro Martinez and Randy Johnson. The fact remains that Brown has a phenomenal ERA, FIP, and xFIP. His 77.2 fWAR is well above the Hall of Fame threshold and he had 7 MVP-esque seasons according to WAR. He is a Hall of Famer in my book.

 

So I used up all ten spots, but that’s okay since there was no one else I wanted to elect. If only the BBWAA could read this.

Top 100 players of all-time: 20-11

January 5, 2010

20. Tom Seaver

1.12/76.7 %/3.04/105.3

Seaver is the best player in Mets’ history. Seaver was a great strikeout pitcher. He won over 300 games and had over 3,600 strikeouts. Seaver qon the Rookie of The Year award in 1967 and won three Cy Young awards. He also made twelve All-Star games.

19. Eddie Collins

.424/.429/.414/126.7

Collins was the best second basemen of his time while playing twenty-five seasons in the MLB. He led his league in fielding nine times and also was one of the best World Series performers ever. Collins won one MVP.

18. Hank Aaron

.374/.555/.405/141.5

Aaron was the home run king until Barry Bonds came along. He was a good hitter who won two batting titles. Aaron won one MVP award and three Gold Gloves. In his MVP season he helped lead the Braves to a World Series Title. He made twenty-one All-Star appearances.

17. Joe DiMaggio

.398/.579/.439/83.4

DiMaggio’s fifty-six game hitting streak might be the hardest record to break. He was an American hero at the time. DiMaggio won three MVP’s and went to thirteen All-Star games.

16. Tris Speaker

.428/.500/.436/132.8

One of the games greatest outfielders was also one of the best hitters. Speaker batted .344 in twenty-two seasons. He helped the Indians win their first World Series and also was one the best doubles hitters ever. He was also a key member of the Red Sox 1912 and 1915 World Series teams. He had over 3,500 hits and he won one MVP award.

15. Mickey Mantle

.421/.557/.431/120.2

Mantle was the greatest switch-hitter in Major League Baseball history. Some say it might have been hard to surpass a Yankee legend like Joe DiMaggio, but he did it. He hit 536 home runs and won three MVP awards. He also played in twelve World Series and won the triple crown in 1956. Mantle won one Gold Glove and made the All-Star game sixteen times.

14. Randy Johnson

1.17/74.7 %/3.19/91.8

Johnson was one of the most dominant pitchers ever. He won four straight Cy Young awards from 1999 through 2002. His height intimidated opposing batters and gave his a slight advantage. In 2002 Johnson won the pitchers triple-crown. He helped the D-Backs win their first World Series in just their fourth season in 2001. He went to ten All-Star games.

13. Lefty Grove

1.28/71.8 %/3.36/98.3

He was twenty-five years old when he came into the Majors, but he made up for his lost time. He won over 300 games. Grove was an intense competitor and is considered one of the greatest left handers ever.

12. Pedro Martinez

1.05/75.9 %/2.91/75.9

Martinez had two of the best seasons ever by a pitcher in 1999 and 2000. He won three Cy Young Awards and four ERA titles before the age of 31. In 1999 he won the pitchers triple-crown. He also appeared in seven All-Star games.

11. Stan Musial

.417/.559/.436/127.9

In his first four seasons the Cardinals won four pennants and three World Championships. Stan “The Man” won seven batting championships and three MVP awards. He had over 3,600 hits. Musial made twenty All-Star games.

Interesting idea by Tom Tango

October 27, 2009

On his blog, Tango talked about the Phillies using a new pitcher every time through the Yankees lineup. Here’s his take:

Anyway, as you can see, each time through the order, the hitters get an extra 8-12 points of OBP and 20-33 points of SLG.  This is not much out of the ordinary for the league in general, which you can tell by looking at the sOPS+ column: they are 12% to 16% better than the league against facing the starting pitcher the 1st, 2nd, or 3rd time.  But, they kill relievers, being 36% better than the league average.

Considering Lee, Hamels, and Pedro will all be throwing on short rest in games 4-7, this could be an excellent idea. But what about the Yankees? Should they employ this strategy, especially with Chad Gaudin pitching or Andy Pettitte starting on short rest start?

Facing a pitcher the first, second, and third time around, the Phillies were better than the league average by 6%, 3%, and 12% respectively. Against relievers, the Phillies were 7% better than the league average.  The one time when the Phillies offense pounced, was when facing a pitcher the fourth time around. Moreover, the Phillies had a 9% increase between the second time facing a pitcher and the third time. So what should the Yankees do?

The Yankees should try to limit their starters from facing the Phillies lineup no more than 2-3 times through. Even if the pitcher is having a dominant game. Ideally, with this information, the Yankees should look to employ this strategy.

In game one the Yankees should limit CC to three times through the Phillies lineup. An additional benefit with that, is that CC will be less fatigued pitching on short rest in game four. In game four, the Yankees should limit CC to no more than 2.5 times through the Phillies lineup. Again, it will save him pitches for a game seven on short rest.

If the Yankees keep their starters from going too deep in a game, they can prevent the Phillies from gaining an edge late in the game, they can conserve the starters pitches so they are less fatigued on short rest, and it will limit the potential risks of a Chad Gaudin start in game five or a potential Andy Pettitte on short rest start in game six.

Now, in no way am I saying it is a strict strategy the Yankees need to an employ. If it’s game seven and CC has a low pitch count through six or seven, it might actually be better to keep him in. But as the stats show, the more you keep the starter in, the more the opponenet will start to hit. So the Yankees should look to the bullpen earlier in the World Series. And they have the pen to do so with former starters in Phil Hughes, Joba Chamberlain, and Alfredo Aceves- plus everyone knows Mo can go two innings- as they will all be able to  throw multiple innings per game.


Greatest pitcher of all-time

August 21, 2009

Now, I know this is a tricky subject. There are a lot of questions raised and factors taken into account to determine this. How do we account for the different eras- deadball, liveball, WWII, pre and post integration, steroid, etc.? Do you want to base it off their career or peak? And in the end, there will still be no right or wrong answer.

With that said, he is a table with stats/info on pitchers typically in the discussion.

RIGHT CLICK GRAPH TO VIEW LARGER PICTURE


Quite clearly the names that fly above the rest are Walter Johnson, Roger Clemens, and Pedro Martinez, and Lefty Grove. Within that party, Johnson and Clemens seem to be the two pitchers who stand out. While Pedro has superior stats, its an extremely inferior amount of innings. Is it fair to criticize Pedro for that? Maybe and maybe not. However, its extremely impressive that Johnson and Clemens stayed dominant throughout a very long career (even with the help of PED’s in Clemens case).

Who do you consider the best of all time?

EDIT: Some names left off include Seaver and Pete Alexander to name a few. However, I don’t feel that will change the end conclusion.

Pitcher of the future

July 23, 2009

Recently I was reading someone claim that Tim Lincecum is and will be the best pitching since Pedro Martinez.

So that got me thinking, is Tim Lincecum really the best pitcher since Pedro Martinez? After looking at it, I could only find one challenger. No it’s not Johan Santana. From 2004-2006, Johan posted consecutive 7+ WAR seasons, as well as K/BB ratios of 4.91, 5.29, and 5.21 in order. However, Johan did that in his age 25-27 seasons. While still impressive, in his age 24 and 25 seasons, Lincecum is putting up similar if not better seasons. Linecum still has a long and bright future ahead of him where he could put up even better numbers, while Johan’s numbers have gone down just about each season since 2006.

So who is the one person who could challenge Timmy for best pitcher since Pedro? Felix Hernandez.

Yes, this pick is mainly based on age and how successful he’s been at such a young age. In 2006 when Timmy was 22, he was pitching in Washington for the Huskies. In 2006 when Felix was 20, he was pitching in Washington for the Mariners.  To the tune of a 3.91 FIP, 2.93 K/BB, and 3.8 WAR no less.

At the tender age of 23, Felix has a 2.75 FIP, 3.61 K/BB, and 4.6 WAR, to complement his career 3.53 FIP and 2.87 K/BB. Again, he is 23. King Felix should still continue to get better and better. He could be crazy good. Although it was his rookie season, when Timmy was 23 he had a 3.63 FIP, 2.31 K/BB, and 3.2 WAR. This was in the NL West no less.

This was a quick post/analysis but to sum: King Felix is damn good and considering his success at the pro level at such a young age, he could be the one who is called the best pitcher in baseball since Pedro. Not Lincecum.