Posted tagged ‘Tori Hunter’

Blue Jays trade Vernon Wells to the Angels for Mike Napoli, Juan Rivera

January 22, 2011

WOWWOWOWOWOWOWOWOWOWOWOWOWOWOW!

So let’s get this straight. Vernon Wells is 32 years old. He has to be paid $23mil in 2011, $21mil in 2012, $21mil in 2013, and $21mil in 2014. So that’s $86mil guaranteed for the age 32-35 seasons, of a player who has produced 7.0 WAR in the past four seasons.

Yikes. So the Angels are picking up a player, who did post a 4 fWAR in 2010, but also produced just a combined 3 WAR from 2007-2009. He is fancasted to produce 2.4 fWAR in 2011. With a $ per WAR of $4.5mil, he would only be worth $10.8mil. He will be paid $24mil.

Why on earth would a team want that? Especially a team like the Angels are aren’t exactly contenders at the moment. Moreover, their outfield is already crowded with Tori Hunter, Bobby Abreu, Reggie Willits, and Peter Bourjos. Moreover, they already had Juan Rivera. Yes, Juan Rivera may not be the hitter he once was. But he is the same age as Wells, and costs about $19mil less…for the same production! The kicker though, is Mike Napoli. Mike Napoli is good. Mike Napoli is 29. Mike Napoli is cost-controlled for two more seasons. Mike Napoli plays a premiere defensive position- catcher. Mike Napoli has proven to be a real good hitting catcher and has provided 2+ WAR in all but one of his professional seasons (he was worth 1.5 WAR in a 75 game 2007 season).

Over the past four years, Mike Napoli has been worth worth 9.7 fWAR, more than Vernon Wells. Mike Napoli made $3.6mil last season and figures to make about $5.8mil in 2011 and about $10.4mil in 2012. That’s about $16mil for two seasons. Vernon Wells has to be paid $24mil in 2011 alone!

Mike Napoli is being fancasted to have a 3.4 WAR season in 2011. So he would be worth $15.3mil and his team would have about $10mil.

So lets get this straight…team with Mike Napoli gets more production, more value, and SAVES money. Team with Vernon Wells gets a not so good player, expensive contract, and loses money compared to what the player brings to the table.

This deal makes no sense for the Angels AT ALL. They had a great, cost-controlled catcher on their roster, and have a loaded outfield. They also probably will not be competing in the West anytime soon so they should look to rid themselves of payroll eating, veteran players. Sure, they will probably move Bobby Abreu to DH, but this move stills make no sense.

As for the Blue Jays- it’s a win x 10. Just trading Wells and his contract, even if for nothing, is a win. Now they get a good catcher, and an extra outfielder to boot.

Sure, the Jays might contribute some money to help the Angels, but the latest reports are saying that will not happen. Either way, it doesn’t change things.

Also, Wells can opt-out after 2011.

1) He’d be crazy to walk away from $63mil guaranteed, especially if he sucks in 2011.

2) If he does walk away, it’s still a bad deal for LA since they will be trading a good catcher for an old outfielder who won’t help them win in 2011.

 

Valuing the 2011 free agent class: Carl Crawford

November 14, 2010

Alongside Cliff Lee and Jayson Werth, Carl Crawford is the biggest name on the free agent market. So far he has been linked to the Los Angeles Angels, Boston Red Sox, New York Yankees, and Detroit Tigers.

2010 was Crawford’s best season as a professional, as he posted a line of .307/.356/.495/.378/141 and 6.9 WAR over 663 PA. His OBP, SLG, wOBA, wRC+, and WAR were all career highs, and he was phenomenal with the glove once again.With a season like that, it’s quite obvious why a lot of teams are licking at the bit to sign him.

However, he will turn 30 during the 2011 season and is a speed and defense type player. If any of those attributes goes, his overall value will take a hit. Defense tends to decline as players age, so that is the risk of paying Crawford eight figures in his mid-thirties. But if he stays athletic, Crawford could be a good player for a long time.

Although his offense will surely regress from 2010 and we may never see him hit that well again, his defense should continue to be superb. Yes, defense tends to decline as a player ages, but there are exceptions. Crawford is freakish athlete who has long been considered the best defensive outfielder alongside Ichiro by fans and defensive numbers. Speaking of Ichiro- another freakish athlete-he is someone who has not seen a dip in his defensive performance. While more fielders go the way of Tori Hunter than Ichiro, I believe Crawford keeps himself in the type of shape that will allow him to continue to be a premium defender well into his thirties.

With that said, I think Crawford will be a serviceable player going forward. I think he will only be a mediocre hitter by the time his deal is up, but his defense will make him valuable. In 2011 I think he’ll be worth about 5.5 WAR with a win being worth $4.5mil. So lets make a table to see how his value will stack up down the road.

Inflation, inflation, inflation. A 3 WAR being worth $21mil in the 2016 market? We’ll see about that, but in this type of analysis you’re supposed to increase the $ per WAR by 0.5 each year.

So yeah, Carl Crawford could be worth a 6/142mil deal or 5/121mil deal. In reality I don’t think he actually get paid that much, but he will definitely receive a nine figure contract for five or six years. And yes, I do think it’s realistic he averages about 4-5 WAR from 30-35.

I think he signs in Los Angeles. The Angels REALLY want him. Although I could see him Boston. However, I think Boston would be more inclined to sign Werth than Crawford. But that’s just a hunch.

 

AL Gold Glove Winners

November 10, 2009

1B: Teixeira

2B: Polanco

3B: Longoria

SS: Jeter

OF: A. Jones

OF: Ichiro

OF: Hunter

C: Mauer (He’ll win this until hes no longer a catcher, you can write that down)

P: Buehrle

Guitierez doesn’t win. Super Duper Failure on the voters part.

I think Andrus should have been the SS choice for GG, but these choices aren’t “horrible” like some years.