Posted tagged ‘Troy Tulowitzki’

Ubaldo Jiminez an Indian?

July 31, 2011

As of now nothing is official, but apparently Cleveland will be trading Alex White, Drew Pomeranz, Matt McBride, and a potential fourth player to the Rockies for Ubaldo Jiminez. Wow. I don’t know about you, but I find it surprising that Cleveland might land Ubaldo.

Ubaldo Jiminez is a really good, young, and cost-controlled player. From now through 2014, he will be paid $18.88mil. He is 27 and is under contract through his age 30 season. I have him producing about 1.5 WAR the rest of the season, Being conservative, I have him at 15 WAR total through 2014 (1.5, 5, 4.5, 4). So I have him producing $74mil over the next 3.2 seasons. As said, he’ll be paid $18.88mil, so he has a value surplus of about $55mil.

So, lets look at the prospects Cleveland will have to give up to get that value and ace pitcher. Alex White was pre-season top 50 prospect who was called up this season before landing on the disabled list. Since he is a top 25 pitching prospect, he is worth $15.9mil. Drew Pomeranz was a top 70 prospect, but surely has moved up this season. In A+ he has been lights out, making 15 starts with a 11.10 K/9, 3.74 BB/9, and 2.36 FIP. I’d also call him a top 25 pitching prospect valued at $15.9mil. Matt McBride has good minor league numbers, but he is 26 and long past prospect status. As a C hitter that is older than 23, he brings just 500k in value. So, the Rockies will be receiving $32.3mil in return for Jiminez. Color me unimpressed.

Seriously, what a shit deal for Colorado. First off, I still don’t know why they are trading Jiminez. I don’t believe they have money issues, but even if they do, Jiminez is super cheap. I don’t think any other star pitcher is paid as little as he is. I mean, club options for $8mil? That is a STEAL. Besides, I don’t even think Colorado needs prospects or to rebuild. They have Tulowitzki and CarGo and Chacin. But okay, they trade. At least get a better haul. Yeah, White and Pomeranz are good. But you need more than that.

Good for Colorado though. Hopefully their fans start showing now. The AL Central should be a fun race this year.

UPDATE:

Pitcher Joe Gardner is the fourth prospect. He is 23 and struggling in AA. Pre-season he was rated the Indians ninth best prospect. I consider him a C level prospect, but to help Colorado, lets call him a B level prospect. That’s $7.3mil. Add that to the $32.3mil total and you get about $40mil. Still well short of the value Jiminez alone should bring you.

Yet “experts” like Jon Heyman are calling it a good deal because they got four players. Seriously? Quantity =/ quality.

Handicapping the Awards – NL MVP Edition

July 26, 2011

Here we go, last of the award predictions.

The favorite

Jose Reyes – SS – New York Mets (5.5 WAR)

Considering he’s “only” played 87 games, I didn’t feel comfortable going with Reyes at first, but he’s clearly shown he’s been the best player in the NL this season, and despite playing in fewer games than other contender, he still has a nice lead in the WAR category. Reyes has an amazingly low 7% K rate and his .404 wOBA and 160 wRC+ are fantastic numbers for a shortstop. If the Mets trade him, whatever team that gets him will be adding an MVP for the stretch run.

The contenders

Andrew McCutchen – OF – Pittsburgh Pirates (4.9 WAR)

The Pirates are contending for the playoffs for the first time in nearly two decades, and leading the ship is young buc Andrew McCutchen (and that’s enough of the puns). Despite almost being snubbed for the All-Star game, McCutchen has shown he is arguably the best centerfielder in the game, or at least the NL. He has been a good fielder this season, gets on base, and hits for power. If the Pirates do win their division, he very well could emerge as the MVP.

Justin Upton – OF – (4.7 WAR)

Last season many were expecting superstar Justin Upton to break out. Unfortunately, that breakout was put on hold until this season. Upton figures to achieve a WAMVP (6.0+) and he has been a monster in leading the underdog D-Backs to a winning record thus far. Not only has he been a great fielder, but he can mash with a .392 wOBA and 144 wRC+. He may not win the award this season, but I would guess he’ll win a few in the future.

Shane Victorino – OF – (4.5 WAR)

So far the race continues to be mainly about the outfielders. Shane Victorino has been a tank this season and would probably be higher on my list if he had not missed so many games thus far. As of now, his WAR/700 is 9.6. Yeah, 9.6. Between superb defense and a 150 wRC+, Victorino has clearly been the Phillies most valuable everyday player and that could very well earn him an MVP award  if he stays strong the rest of the season.

Matt Kemp – OF – Los Angeles Dodgers (4.8 WAR)

Kemp would have been higher on my list if not for a brutal past month. But despite that month, he still has put off unworldly numbers. His line is .311/.392/.572/.419/170+. The Dodgers organization might be having a long season, but Kemp is a been a bright spot. His 2010 season was horrible, but as bad as it was, that’s how good this season has been. If he picks up his first half pace, he’ll have a legitimate chance to challenge the front runner, Jose Reyes.

The long shots

Matt Holliday – OF – St. Louis Cardinals (4.2 WAR)

Hey, another OF! Moreover, just like Victorino, Holliday has missed some time due to injury. While he has a 4.2 WAR, his WAR/700 is 9.2. For reference, Matt Kemp’s WAR/700 is 7.9. So yeah, Holliday has been awesome. I just believe the time he missed will cost him.

Ryan Braun – OF – Milwaukee Brewers (4.5 WAR)

Braun has always been a big hitter, and 2011 has been no different. His basic line of .321/.398/.583 has given him a .430 wOBA and 176 wRC+. In fact, his wRC+ leads the NL. While he may be a long shot, if Braun keeps hitting the way he has been there will be a shot.

Troy Tulowitzki – SS – Colorado Rockies (4.4 WAR)

Finally! A non-OF! Tulowitzki started off red-hot and then cooled down a lot. But he has been consistently good the past month or so and it’s showing in his numbers. Tulo has been fantastic with the glove, earning a full win with the leather alone. Team that up with a 124 wRC+ for a shortstop, and its not hard to see why he is in the running for MVP.

 

 

Mark Ellis shipped to Colorado

July 1, 2011

Just the other day the Oakland A’s shipped Mark Ellis to the Colorado Rockies for Bruce Billings and a PTBNL. While a trade of Mark Ellis shouldn’t be a surprise (he is 34 and sports a 54 wRC+), it does close relatively important chapter in A’s history.

Ellis is and was not a superstar, but during his best years he was a good starting second baseman. Always more of a fielder than a hitter, he has accumulated 56.7 fielding runs in his career of 1056 games. He also has a WAR/700 of 3.6 so far in his career. As a result, “Ellis compiled $83.5 million worth of value for only $27.3 million in salary as an Athletic“.

But with a terrible start to the season, it was time for both sides to move on. Behind Ellis was prospect Jemile Weeks. Trading Ellis opens up a hole for Weeks to play everyday and prove himself worthy of being the team’s new second baseman of the future. In 217 AAA PA this season, Weeks posted a line of .321/.417/.446/.391/122+ with a 13.4 BB%. So far in 87 PA in the majors, he has a 131 wRC+.

For Ellis, he goes to a Rockies club that could actually use his services. Between Ian Stewart, Chris Nelson, and Jon Herrera, second base has been a black hole. Ellis instantly gets a second chance at Coors Field and his defense should be welcome as he pairs up with Tulowitzki in the middle infield.

As for me, the deal makes me sad and happy. I really like Mark Ellis, so I’m sad to see him leave Oakland, a ball club I like. However, I also like the Rockies and I am a huge Jemile Weeks fan so I am glad he is finally getting his big opportunity. In the end, I believe this is a smart deal for both sides involved and hopefully things work out for both sides.

Rockies lock up Tulo long, long, loooooooong term

December 1, 2010

The Colorado Rockies have handed Troy Tulowitzki a 7/$134mil extension that will kick in after the 2013 season, meaning he will don the purple pinstripes through 2020. Damn.

I was going to get into this, but Tom Tango had a better post on his blog, so I’ll just let him take it away.

Quote:

Tulo: extension of 6/119, starting in 2015.

Wow.  Tulo was born Oct, 1984.  In his last 4 years, rWAR is at 19 wins, and fWAR is at 18.

Lucky for us, I just published the WAR aging curves for great players, and Tulo is a standard great player.

In 2011, he will be 27 years old.  The historical precedent for players like Tulo is about 16-17 wins from 2011-2014.  He’s already being paid for those years.

The extension is for the 6 years starting in 2015.  So, we just need to look at years 5 through years 10 from the aging curve for players entering year 1 at age 27.  And those 6 years are going to be about 15-16 wins.

Here’s what happens:

Year    $/win    WAR
2011     $4.50
2012     $5.00
2013     $5.50
2014     $6.00
2015     $6.50     3.9
2016     $7.00     3.4
2017     $7.50     2.9
2018     $8.00     2.4
2019     $8.50     1.9
2020     $9.00     1.4

 

I’m starting the $ per win at 4.5MM$ in 2011, and going up by 0.5MM$ each year.  Is that a good estimate?  Bad estimate?  I don’t know.  We’re all in the same boat here.  His WAR in 2015 (age 31) would be 3.9.  And then we drop it by 0.5 wins per year.  I know that is a good estimate, because that’s the typical pattern that we’ve seen historically.

Anyway, all we have to do is multiply the second column by the third column, and add up the numbers.  And what do we get?

$119MM$.

Seriously.

Listen, I know I got lucky here.  I could have started the $ per win at 5.0.  I could have instead increased the $ per win by 7% or something (that would have gotten me to 119.6MM$).  Whatever, that’s not the main point.

The main point is that we have a framework to analyze the deal, and we can plug in reasonable numbers to see how we could get to 119MM$.  And, we were able to do so with reasonable numbers.

Good job on the Rockies and Tulowitzki for coming up with a reasonably justifiable deal.

*When he made the post, it was rumored to be a 6/$119mil extension. It’s now 7/$134mil. That doesn’t change anything though. Previously he was going to be paid $15mil in 2014. Now he is going to be paid $16mil. So it’s basically 6/$118mil.

Using his WAR estimates and $ per WAR estimates, over the life of his now 10/$153.75mil contract, he would be worth $202.85mil, so that’s a ton of net value for the Rockies. Over the span of the extension he will be worth about $142.85mil. So this is a really good deal for both sides. The Rockies are getting fair value and if Tulo plays well, especially late into his career, they could be saving money. Meanwhile, Tulo has security and a shit ton of money.

In the comments section of his blog, Tango showed best case and worst case estimates for Tulo’s last six seasons. If he ages well, he could be worth $198mil in the last six years alone. If he ages poorly, he’d be worth $37mil over those six seasons. I have to agree with Tom when he expects Tulo to age somewhere in the middle. If that’s the case, as I stated above, it’s a great deal for both sides.

Obviously things change if the $ per WAR is different in reality as we progress to those future seasons, for a scale, it’s a good estimate.

And bonus time! Here is a table to show the numbers. For his 2011-2014 seasons, I gave him a solid 4 WAR each season. To me, that’s conservative. According to Tango’s age path, players in their age 27-30 seasons get a total WAR of 16-17. That’s why I gave him 4 WAR each season, even though something tells me he will do better than that.

*Might need to right click to enlarge.

Now hopefully Tulo uses his new money to get a haircut.

MLB award winners

November 7, 2010

Sorry for the delayed post on this topic, but without further ado here are my picks for the 2010 MLB awards.

AL MVP- Josh Hamilton (.359/.411/.633/.447/182, 571 PA, 7.0 aWAR)

Hamilton was just too dominant. I concentrated on WAR to figure out my MVP, along with several other factors. Since there are two versions of WAR, I got the average of rWAR and fWAR, which is what Tom Tango recommends. On here I pretty much use only fWAR, but for better analysis, I found the average of two versions this time around. While Hamilton didn’t look at hot with rWAR as he did with fWAR, his average was still the best and I put more stock in fWAR. Granted he missed a month, a month in which he could have slumped. But it also could have been his best month. He put up an insane .447 wOBA with positive defensive value playing center field. That’s an MVP to me.

Runner-ups: 2) Evan Longoria 3)Adrian Beltre 4) Robinson Cano 5) Miguel Cabrera

NL MVP- Joey Votto (.324/.424/.600/.439/177, 648 PA, 6.8 aWAR)

Offensively, Votto was nearly the Josh Hamilton of the NL. He absolutely killed the ball en route to leading the Reds to the NL Central division. Now, while his fWAR bested Albert Pujols, his rWAR was a full win behind Pujols, giving Pujols a better aWAR. However, the difference was due to difference in defensive metrics. According to fWAR, Votto was a slightly better hitter and they were equal defenders. According to rWAR,they were equal offensively, but Pujols was much better defensively.With SSS issues of defensive metrics and the difference in defensive metrics used in each version of WAR, I feel more comfortable saying Votto had the better year.

Runner-ups: 2) Albert Pujols 3) Ryan Zimmerman 4) Matt Holliday 5) Troy Tulowitzki

AL Cy Young- Felix Hernandez (249 IP, 3.04 FIP, 3.26 xFIP, 6.1 aWAR)

For most of the season I had Francisco Liriano as my Cy Young winner. But he got kind of ill in September and faltered a little bit while Felix picked up steam. I feel bad knocking Liriano for that, but he made the starts and wasn’t his usual self. So be it. Hernandez was a boss, leading the league in innings and excelling in all the things a pitcher can control- K, BB, HR allowed.

Runner Ups- 2) Cliff Lee 3) Francisco Liriano 4) Jered Weaver 5) Jon Lester

NL Cy Young- Roy Halladay (250 IP, 3.01 FIP, 2.92 xFIP, 6.9 aWAR)

This one is not even a contest. Halladay arguably had his best season as a professional, leading the league in innings and WAR. Looking at all his full seasons, he posted the best K/9 of his career and tied his best BB/9 at 1.08 walks per nine. He absolutely destroyed the National League.

Runner-ups- 2) Josh Johnson 3) Ubaldo Jiminez 4) Adam Wainwright 5) Roy Oswalt

AL Rookie of the Year- Austin Jackson (.293/.345/.400/.333/108, 675 PA, 3.1 aWAR)

While some people  might pick Neftali Feliz, I think Austin Jackson is a no-brainer. He played a more valuable position, was an above-average hitter and played superb defense. Putting up a 3.7 fWAR as a rookie is impressive. Jackson will be a solid player for Detroit for a long time. Also, if he didn’t get hurt, Caros Santana probably would have won the award. But he was called up late, and then missed a lot of time because of his injury. I put him at #5 anyway just to recognize him.

Runner-ups- 2) Brian Matusz 3) Neftali Feliz 4) John Jaso 5) Carlos Santana

NL Rookie of the Year- Jason Heyward (.277/.393/.456/.376/138, 623 PA, 4.7 aWAR)

Jason. Heyward. Is. A. Beast. I mean for real. He was twenty years and almost put up a .400 OBP in a full season. He had 91 BB despite spending some time on the DL. The dood can hit- and field. It was tempting to pick Posey, especially after watching his postseason, but Heyward had nearly 200 more PA in the regular season and was amazing in his own right. The NL rookie class had to have been one of the best ever.

Runner-ups- 2) Buster Posey 3) Jaime Garcia 4) Mike Stanton 5) Stephen Strasburg

AL Comeback Player of the Year- Colby Lewis (201 IP, 3.55 FIP, 3.93 xFIP, 4.0 aWAR)

In a tightly contested race, Lewis just edges Francisco Liriano. Yes, Liriano had a better season. BUT I find Lewis’ comeback more amazing- and he still had a fantastic season. Sure Liriano hasn’t been relevant since 2006, but Lewis pitched in JAPAN for the past two seasons. At least Liriano was hurt and fiddling around in America.

Runner-ups- 2) Francisco Liriano 3) Vernon Wells 4) Paul Konerko 5) Alex Rios

NL Comeback Player of the Year- Aubrey Huff (.290/.385/.506/.388/145, 668 PA, 5.8 aWAR)

Call this the Year of the Comeback. Much like the AL, there was an abundance of comeback players to choose from. Of all  my picks, this one was one of the toughest. But Huff had the best years of the players I narrowed it down to, and he had the worst performance of anyway in 2009. So he slides in perfectly as the winner.

Runner-ups- 2) Brett Myers 3) Anibal Sanchez 4) Kelly Johnson 5) Rickie Weeks

AL Most Improved/Breakout Player of the Year- Jose Bautista (.260/.378/.617/.422/169, 683 PA, 6.3 aWAR)

I think this one is a no-doubter. Jose Bautista went from a utility-role player to mashing 54 home runs. His WAR reached MVP level. Using fWAR, he bested his previous WAR high of 1.9 by five wins. Wowzers.

Runner-ups- 2) Daric Barton 3) Brett Gardner 4) CJ Wilson 5) David Price

NL Most Improved/Breakout Player of the Year- Andres Torres (.268/.343/.479/.363/128, 570 PA, 5.3 aWAR)

There were a ton of breakout players, but Andres Torres had the biggest breakout. He debuted in 2002 from 2002 through 2005 he never posted a fWAR above 0. Then he went to the minors from 2006 through 2008. He posted a 2.0 WAR last year in 75 games, but really broke out this season with a 6.0 fWAR. He hit well and was a monster of a fielder. Three players I want to mention for improving, but who didn’t even make my top five are Chris Young, Martin Prado, and Omar Infante.

Runner-ups- 2) Jay Bruce 3) Angel Pagan 4) Stephen Drew 5) Chase Headley

AL Relief Pitcher of the Year- Joakim Soria (65 IP, 2.53 FIP, 2.99 xFIP, 2.1 WAR, 2.18 pLI)

Joakim Soria did his best Mariano Rivera performance this season. Not only was he among the leaders in FIP, xFIP, and WAR, but he had the highest leverage index of the players I narrowed my search down to, meaning he performed like a beast in tougher situations than the other candidates for the award. He simply was the best reliever in the AL.

Runner-ups- 2) Matt Thornton 3) Mariano Rivera 4) Neftali Feliz 5) Rafael Soriano

NL Relief Pitcher of the Year- Carlos Marmol (77 IP, 2.01 FIP, 2.95 xFIP, 3.1 WAR, 2.04 pLI)

There were a ton of great relievers in the NL this season. Brian Wilson, Heath Bell, Matt Belisle, etc. But Marmol was the most dominant. His K/9 was 15.99. You read that right. 15.99. Sure, he walked more than five batters per nine, but chances are he would strike out the side before he would walk in a run. His K-BB was a +86. Brian Wilson had 93 STRIKEOUTS. And Marmol’s K-BB was 86. Simply amazing. Plus, he was among the leaders in pLI.

Runner-ups- 2) Brian Wilson 3) Heath Bell 4) John Axford 5) Matt Belisle

AL Silver Slugger Awards-

C- Joe Mauer (.327/.402/.469/.373/136)

1B- Miguel Cabrera (.328/.420/.622/.429/172)

2B- Robinson Cano (.319/.381/.534/.389/145)

3B- Adrian Beltre (.321/.365/.553/.390/143)

SS- Alexei Ramirez (.282/.313/.431/.322/97)

OF- Josh Hamilton (.359/.411/.633/.447/183)*

OF- Jose Bautista (.260/.378/.617/.422/169)

OF- Shin-soo Choo (.300/.401/.384/.388/147)

DH- Luke Scott (.284/.368/.535/.387/143)

* AL Offensive Player of the Year

NL Silver Slugger Awards-

C- Brian McCann (.269/.375/.453/.361/128)

1B- Joey Votto (.324/.424/.600/.439/177)*

2B- Dan Uggla (.287/.369/.508/.381/140)

3B- Ryan Zimmerman (.307/.388/.510/.389/146)

SS- Troy Tulowitzki (.315./.381/.568/.408/150)

OF- Carlos Gonzalez (.336/.376/.598/.416/155)

OF- Jayson Werth (.296/.388/.532/.397/150)

OF- Matt Holliday (.312/.390/.532/.396/153)

P- Yovanni Gallardo (.254/.329/.508/.363/130)

* NL Offensive Player of the Year

AL Gold Glove Awards-

C- Matt Weiters (1060 innings/5 DRS/13 FSR)

1B- Daric Barton (1331 innings/20 DRS/5 FSR/12.1 UZR)

2B- Robinson Cano (1393 innings/7 DRS/10 FSR/-0.6 UZR)

3B- Evan Longoria (1330 innings/15 DRS/20 FSR/11.1 UZR)

SS- Alexei Ramirez (1376 innings/16 DRS/12 FSR/10.8 UZR)

OF- Brett Gardner (1211 innings/16 DRS/12 FSR/21.9 UZR)

OF- Carl Crawford (1260 innings/14 DRS/15 FSR/18.5 UZR)

OF- Ichiro Suzuki (1411 innings/12 DRS/15 FSR/14.8 UZR)

P- Mark Buehrle

NL Gold Glove Awards-

C- Yadier Molina (1138 innings/6 DRS/19 FSR)

1B- Ike Davis (1263 innings/13 DRS/3 FSR/10.1 UZR)

2B- Brandon Phillips (1311 innings/0 DRS/18 FSR/9.7 UZR)

3B- Ryan Zimmerman (1189 innings/20 DRS/16 FSR/13.9 UZR)

SS- Brendan Ryan (1127 innings/27 DSR/11 FSR/11.5 UZR)

OF- Andres Torres (1120 innings/12 DRS/10 FSR/21.2 UZR)

OF- Jay Bruce (1199 innings/17 DRS/9 FSR/20.2 UZR)

OF- Michael Bourn (1189 innings/16 DRS/8 FSR/17.6 UZR)

P- Tim Hudson

Click here to see how we did on our pre-season award predictions!



NL MVP race- not over

September 18, 2010

Just weeks ago it seemed like Joey Votto was the runaway favorite for the NL MVP.

But no so fast my friends. Troy Tulowitzki is ON FIRE. With two more home runs today he now has fourteen in September. By the way, it’s September 18th.

I just talked about Tulo the other day so I don’t need to explain his case, but he is making the race interesting. I will still go with Votto for now because he has played the entire season and is equally deserving. It seems odd giving an MVP to someone, in Tulo, who may finish with under 550 PA. But he has an 8.7 WAR/700!

Troy Tulowitzki>Carlos Gonzalez

September 15, 2010

Yeah, I said it. Carlos Gonzalez has a shot at the Triple Crown and is the face of the 2010 Colorado Rockies. Troy Tulowitzki has a bad haircut. And is the better, more valuable baseball player.

So why does the MSM and average fan eat up CarGo at the expense of Tulo?

1) Traditional stats.

Carlos Gonzalez has the best batting average in the National League. People love batting average. But Tulowitzki has a .322 BA himself. Gonzalez has 32 homers. Chicks dig the long ball. But Tulo still has 22 homers despite missing some time due to injury. Carlos Gonzalez has 104 RBI’s. RBI’s often win guys MVP’s. But Tulo still has 75 RBI’s despite missing some time due to injury. So Gonzalez has beasted when it comes to mainstream, boring stats. Yet Tulowitzki has solid stats as well, even though he missed time due to injury!

2) Defense.

Joe Posnanski had a great post the other day, in which he discussed defensive value. Essentially, he said that voters often vote for the big offense players since defense is tough to measure, unlike offense. In fact, here is an excerpt:

Except for a couple of extra MVPs to the glamour position of shortstop, the MVPs have gone in perfect order from easiest position to hardest. Why? Because the MVP is an offensive award. Because our idea of value in large part revolves around offensive contributions — and not just any offensive contributions but certain KINDS of offensive contribution.

He summed up my thoughts EXACTLY. Gonzalez is getting the media attention because of his specific (BA, RBI, HR) offensive production.

Now, onto why Tulowitzki has been better.

1) Offense.

Yes, Gonzalez has better traditional numbers. But what about advanced numbers? In 571 PA, Gonzalez has a line of .340/.377/.612/.421/159. Not too shabby. In 456 PA, Tulowitzki has a line of .320/.387/.559/.409/151. That’s not too bad either. While Gonzalez has a better SLG percentage, Tulo still has a ridiculously good SLG. Moreover, his OBP is better- and OBP>SLG. As a result, they have very similar wRC+’s. But keep in mind their positions. While CarGo’s wRC+ is 8 runs better than Tulo, he is an outfielder. Tulowitzki has a wRC+ over 150 as a shortstop! Damn, that is impressive.

2) Defense.

Carlos Gonzalez is an okay fielder. In 632 innings last season DRS and UZR thought he was above average. In 1102 innings this season, both metrics believe he is a little bit below average. So CarGo is average with the glove. But Tulowitzki is a BEAST. He has never posted a negative defensive metric in his career. One could make the case he is the best defensive shortstop in baseball. His defense gives him so much value, especially compared to Gonzalez, that is overcomes any gap in value there is with their offense.

3) Position.

As I touched upon in points 1 and 2, position is a big reason why Tulowitzki has been better. We all know shortstop is way more valuable than a corner outfielder. Way more valuable. So while Gonzalez has slightly better offensive stats, we need to factor in their positions. In that context, Tulo’s numbers are more valuable and impressive. Then look at their defense. Tulowitzki is already a better fielder, but the fact he performs better with the glove at a more important  position just rockets his value past that of Gonzalez.

fWAR

Gonzalez: 5.3

Tulowitzki: 5.4

bWAR

Gonzalez: 4.4

Tulowitzki: 4.8

There you go. Keep in mind, Tulo has played in less games. So his WAR/700 would be even more impressive.

Top 10 players you would build a franchise with

May 9, 2010

Its based on position, age, and salary. These things are huge when wanting to build a franchise around one player. So here we go:

10. Tommy Hanson – Atlanta Braves

Position : Pitcher
Age : 23
2010 Salary : 435k

Hanson is a great young talented pitcher. The Braves will have one of the better rotations in the future because of Hanson and Jair. He had a great rookie year posting a 2.89 ERA and a 3.50 FIP. He was a bit lucky. He even had a 80.3 LOB%. Hanson had a 1.18 WHIP. In 127 innings pitched he has a 2.6 WAR. Hes the real deal people.

9. Matt Wieters – Baltimore Orioles

Position : Catcher
Age : 23
2010 Salary : 400k

Before taking a major league at bat Wieters was described as Joe Mauer with power. I could see him making some noise in the next few years. The Orioles filled a vital position with him and he should be signed to a new deal this off-season. Wieters first season in the show would be a success in my eyes. He had a .340 OBP, .404 SLG, and a .324 wOBA. Not bad for a rookie. He also had a 1.3 WAR in 96 games. A young power hitter like Wieters will strikeout a lot, but he is the catcher of the future. Mauer and Wieters can possibly be battling for the best catcher title in the future.

8. Zack Greinke – Kansas City Royals
Position : Pitcher
Age : 26
2010 Salary : 7.5 million

Greinke came out of no where in 2009 to win the AL Cy Young award. KC has him for two more years after 2010. His 9.4 WAR led pitchers. You have to be simply amazing to win 16 games with the Royals run support. He wasn’t great until 2009, but many people expect big things from him. Including myself. In 09′ he had a 2.16 ERA and a 2.33 FIP. His LOB% was 79.3%. That is just crazy good. To have anything near 80% is great. His WHIP was 1.07. Greinke also ate innings up. Almost 230 total innings pitched in those he had 242 strikeouts. He could be a key piece to a contender in a two years.

7. Matt Kemp – Los Angeles Dodgers

Position : CF
Age : 25
2010 Salary : 4 million

The future of the Dodgers is Matthew Kemp. Like Lincecum, Kemp avoided arbitration by signing a two-year deal. Not too bad for the Dodgers either 2010 4 million and 2011 6.95 million. Kemp is known for his hitting, but I hope he will become a better fielder. In 2009 he had a 2.9 UZR, but in 2010 he already has a -11.3. I’m positive its just him taking terrible routes to the ball. For Kemp’s sake he hopes he can change that so hes not the next Ryan Braun.

.347/.485/.360

Plus his 5.0 WAR last year don’t look too shabby either.

6. Troy Tulowitzki – Colorado Rockies

Position : SS
Age : 25
2010 Salary : 3.5 million

Another young star locked up for a long time with a solid deal for the organization. Hes with the Rockies until 2014. Tulo’s contract don’t hit over 5.5 million until 2012. Colorado has a gem here in Tulowitzki. He plays shortstop good, and hits like a mad man. I’d consider him the second or third best shortstop in the league behind Hanley. A career .355/.471/.354 OBP/SLG/wOBA. He got to learn to not strikeout so much, but as one of those rare power hitting shortstops I guess the 19.7 K% comes with it. Tulo’s career UZR is 10.4. His value is high with a 5.5 WAR a season ago. Tulo is a favorite of mine and wouldn’t mind having a great hitter and good fielder in return for this amount of dough.

5. Tim Lincecum – Francisco Giants
Position : Pitcher
Age : 25
2010 Salary : 8 million

Lincecum is on pace to become one of the greatest pitchers the game has ever seen barring injury. He already has two Cy Young awards under his belt in four seasons as a starter. The Freak avoided arbitration by signing a two year deal for 8 million in 2010 and 13 million in 2011. Thats a ton of weed! Joking a side his stats are unbelievable. His ERA is 2.82 and his FIP is 2.71. Meaning his ERA is right around where he is supposed to be. His 75.5 LOB% is slightly above average. Lincecum also knows how to eat innings and strike people out. In 641 innings over four seasons he struck out 732 batters. Here are some other stats to check out.

WHIP – 1.13
tERA – 2.06
WAR – 20.8

His WAR last season was 8.2 tied for the second most among pitchers. I’d love to have this guy in my staff for years to come.

4. Justin Upton – Arizona Diamondbacks

Position : RF
Age : 22
2010 Salary : 500k

The Diamondbacks are getting a real steal here. They aren’t paying him a whole lot until I’d say 2013 where hes getting 9.75 million. He is locked in from 2010-2015. I see a great career ahead of Upton. His stat line goes…

.348/.478/.355

And you can only see this 22 year old right fielder can only get better. His WAR last season was 4. Upton is also a great defense. His UZR was 8.5 and his UZR/150 was 9.0. He figured something out last year because there was a dramatic increase in his defensive numbers from 08-09. In a small sample size this year it seems he will be even better this year. A good young all-round player, and cheap too!

3. Joe Mauer – Minnesota Twins

Position : Catcher
Age : 27
2010 Salary : 12.5 million

Mauer is pretty expensive and after this season he’ll be getting 23 million annually until 2018. But Mauer will be much worth it. He is the best catcher in the game. Probably the second most valuable position in the MLB. His hitting numbers are crazy. Mauer’s career numbers look like this.

.408/.484/.384

These are crazy numbers since his rookie season in 2004. His career WAR is 28.7 but I believe we haven’t even seen Mauer’s peak. His MVP season is just the beginning of great seasons to come. If you were starting a franchise I couldn’t say you were wrong spending a ton of money on this guy. He had 8 WAR season just by hitting because catchers do not have a defensive metric. Indicating it would be even higher. Mauer also does not strike out a lot by seeing his 11.4 K%. Get ready to pay some incentives because this guy will be winning a few MVP’s in the next 10 years.

2. Hanley Ramirez – Florida Marlins

Position : SS
Age : 26
2010 Salary : 7 million

Hanley is pretty costly, but is an amazing talent at one of the more valuable positions in the MLB. I’d say shortstop is the #1 most valuable position in baseball. He is going to be a Marlin until 2014 unless trade. Ramirez finished 7th in WAR last season with a 7.1 WAR. Hanley can straight up rake though. In his 5 years in the majors he posted a .387/.530/.397 (OBP/SLG/wOBA) Like Longoria, Ramirez strikes out a bit, but not as much. He has a career 18.2 K%. So far through this season (small sample size) he has a 12.6%. So it might seem he will strike out less this year. His career BB% is 9.6. It should get higher, but he hits so well his OBP could be .400+ again this year. Hanley isn’t the greatest field either. He only had 1 season (not including his two games in 2005) where he had a positive UZR. Ramirez is such a great hitter though he don’t need his glove too produce.
1. Evan Longoria – Tampa Bay Rays

Position : 3B
Age : 24
2010 Salary : 950k

Longoria is the best option when it comes down to age, position and salary. He is only 24 years old and is the second best third basemen in the major leagues. Could be argued as the first best. The Rays are getting a really great deal with Longoria. He isn’t reaching the million dollar mark until next season, and is in his 2nd season of his 6 year deal. He was also had a top 10 WAR for batters last year with a 7.2 WAR. Longo is a very productive player here is his OBP/SLG/wOBA in his very short career. .359/.536/.381. It shows he gets on base. His BB% is 10%. Like other young power hitters his K% is in the mid 20’s. According to UZR (18.1) and UZR/150 (18.5) he is the best fielding third basemen in the MLB. In conclusion Evan can do it all. I expect his K% to go down as he becomes more experienced.

4PARL end of season awards

October 8, 2009

It’s that time of the year again where people start mentioning their official votes for MLB season awards. If we had a vote, this is how it’d go down:

AL MVP:

Disco- Joe Mauer

Bballer- Zack Greinke

Trekker- Joe Mauer

Twaco- Joe Mauer

NL MVP:

Disco- Albert Pujols

Bballer- Albert Pujols

Trekker- Albert Pujols

Twaco- Albert Pujols

AL Cy Young:

Disco- Zack Greinke

Bballer- Zack Greinke

Trekker- Zack Greinke

Twaco- Zack Greinke

NL Cy Young:

Disco- Tim Lincecum

Bballer- Tim Lincecum

Trekker- Chris Carpenter

Twaco- Tim Lincecum

AL Rookie of Year:

Disco- Brett Anderson

Bballer- Elvis Andrus

Trekker- Jeff Niemann

Twaco- Brett Anderson

NL Rookie of Year:

Disco- Andrew McCutchen

Bballer- Garret Jones

Trekker- Andrew McCutchen

Twaco- Andrew McCutchen

AL DHL Delivery Man of Year:

Disco- Mariano Rivera

Bballer- Andrew Bailey

Trekker- Mariano Rivera

Twaco- Mariano Rivera

NL DHL Delivery Man of Year:

Disco- Jon Broxton

Bballer- Jon Broxton

Trekker- Jon Broxton

Twaco- Jon Broxton

Disco’s Silver Sluggers:

C- Joe Mauer; Brian McCann

1b- Miguel Cabrera; Albert Pujols

2b- Ben Zobrist; Chase Utley

3b- Alex Rodriguez; Pablo Sandoval

SS- Derek Jeter; Hanley Ramirez

OF- Jason Bay, JD Drew, Shin-soo Choo; Ryan Braun, Adam Dunn, Justin Upton

DH- Adam Lind

*Kevin Youkilis deserves props. He split between 1b/3b so I didn’t give him the benefit at 1b or 3b.

Bballer’s Silver Sluggers:

C- Joe Mauer; Brian McCann

1b- Miguel Cabrera; Albert Pujols

2b- Ben Zobrist; Chase Utley

3b- Kevin Youkilis; Ryan Zimmerman

SS- Derek Jeter; Hanley Ramirez

OF- Jason Bay, JD Drew, Adam Lind; Justin Upton, Jayson Werth, Ryan Braun

DH- Hideki Matsui

Trekker’s Silver Sluggers:

C- Joe Mauer; Brian McCann

1b- Miguel Cabrera; Albert Pujols

2b- Ben Zobrist; Chase Utley

3b- Alex Rodriguez; Pablo Sandoval

SS- Derek Jeter; Hanley Ramirez

OF- Jason Bay, Adam Lind, Shin-Soo Choo; Justin Upton, Adam Dunn, Ryan Braun

DH- Jason Kubel

Twaco’s Silver Sluggers:

C- Joe Mauer; Brian McCann

1b- Kevin Youkilis; Albert Pujols

2b- Ben Zobrist; Chase Utley

3B- Alex Rodriguez; Pablo Sandoval

SS- Derek Jeter; Hanley Ramirez

OF- Jason Bay, Adam Lind, JD Drew; Justin Upton, Ryan Braun, Adam Dunn

DH- Hideki Matsui

Disco’s Gold Gloves:

C- Kurt Suzuki; Yadier Molina

1b- Mark Teixeira; James Loney

2b- Chase Utley; Dustin Pedroia

3B- Evan Longoria; Ryan Zimmerman

SS- Elvis Andrus; Troy Tulowitzki

OF- Franklin Guitierez, Ryan Sweeney, David DeJesus; Nyjer Morgan, Mike Cameron, Randy Winn

Bballer’s Gold Glovers:

C- Joe Mauer; Yadier Molina

1b- Kevin Youkilis; Adrian Gonzalez

2b- Placido Polanco; Chase Utley

3b- Evan Longoria; Ryan Zimmerman

SS- Jason Bartlett; JJ Hardy

OF- Franklin Guitierez, Carl Crawford, BJ Upton; Mike Cameron, Colby Rasmus, Raul Ibanez

Trekker’s Gold Glovers:

C- Joe Mauer; Yadier Molina

1b- Mark Teixeira; Adrian Gonzalez

2b- Dustin Pedroia; Chase Utley

3b- Evan Longoria; Ryan Zimmerman

SS- Elvis Andrus; Rafael Furcal

OF- Ichiro, Franklin Guitierez, Carl Crawford; Nyjer Morgan, Mike Cameron, Colby Rasmus

Twaco’s Gold Glovers:

C- Joe Mauer; Yadier Molina

1b- Mark Teixeira; Albert Pujols

2b- Dustin Pedroia; Chase Utley

3B- Evan Longoria; Ryan Zimmerman

SS- Elvis Andrus; Rafael Furcal

OF- Nelson Cruz, Franklin Guitierez, David DeJesus; Justin Upton, Mike Cameron, Raul Ibanez