End of A Childhood

Posted September 29, 2014 by Disco
Categories: Uncategorized

After a whole season of great fanfare, Derek Jeter retired from baseball today, as the DH in a meaningless regular season game played at Fenway Park. In his final play, he bounced a ball off the plate and hustled down the line for an infield hit, where he was removed for a pinch-runner and jogged off the field for the last time as professional ballplayer. In many ways, it was an anti-climatic ending for the game’s most famous shortstop- a man synonymous with Yankee pinstripes and October baseball. Yet it was still very much Jeterian- a hustle play to help his team score a run. And with that came the end of an era, and a childhood.

My first season following baseball was 1998. In fact, my first memory is of a Yankees inter-league game against the Philadelphia Phillies. The Yankees won 9-2 behind a complete game from David Cone who had 11 strikeouts. I vividly remember the 1998 World Series. I remember Paul O’Neil making a great catch at the wall in the first inning of Game 2, as El Duque went on to get the win in a 9-3 blowout. I remember the Yankees late inning comeback off Trevor Hoffman in Game 3. And I remember the World Series victory cementing their status as the greatest team of all-time.

Derek Jeter hit .324/.384/.481/.379/128+ that season with one of his few plus defensive seasons and a 6.2 fWAR. It was one of many more brilliant seasons to come for the future Yankees captain. As the years went on, I grew to be a bigger and bigger baseball and Yankees fan. There was 1999 when the Yankees swept the Braves to become back-to-back champs. That was Jeter’s best professional season- a season that should have earned him MVP honors. In 2000 there was the famous Subway Series. Jeter hit the first pitch of Game 4 for a home run. My Little League team also won the championship that year.

In 2001, 9/11 happened. My dad was in one of the smaller World Trade buildings that morning. All I remember is coming home to watch Spongebob and playing with a neighborhood friend. That postseason Jeter made three of his most famous plays as the Yankees went on a miracle run to the World Series. In coming back from a 2-0 hole in the ALDS to the 101 win Oakland Athletics, there was the “flip play” in Game 3, and the tumble into the stands in Game 5 (Terrence Long was the batter on both plays). As the Yankees made quick work of the 116 win Seattle Mariners in the ALCS, Derek Jeter was the man who ended Game 4 of the World Series, with his Mr. November walk-off home run. I still get get choked up watching Game 4 and Game 5 of that World Series. They were the two greatest games ever played in the long, vast history of professional baseball.

2002 marked the first time the Yankees missed the World Series since 1997- a new experience for me. My Little League team lost the championship in crushing fashion that year as well. But come 2003, Aaron Boone walked-off the Boston Red Sox and there was Little League redemption as I ended my LL career with two bases clearing triples in the title game. In June Derek Jeter was named the 14th captain in Yankees history.

By 2004 I was in middle school. I had graduated to 50-70 baseball and got the wonderful chance to participate in a Cooperstown tournament. Little did I know my eyesight was rapidly deteriorating as I barely could hit the ball. The Yankees allowed the Red Sox to come back from 3-0 as our bitter enemies claimed their first World Series in 86 years.  Yet 2004 is also the season Jeter bloodied his face diving for a ball in extra innings against the Red Sox. John Flaherty later won the game for the Yankees with a deep fly ball to left field.

In 2005 I got glasses and could finally hit a baseball again. Jeter had another strong year and won the Gold Glove, but the Yankees continued their postseason woes with an ugly ALDS against the Angels. 2006 was another strong year for the Captain. He notched the highest BA of his career (.343) and was the only Yankee hitter to show up in an ALDS loss to the Tigers- an ALDS better known for Joe Torre batting Alex Rodriguez 8th. That happened to be the same year I graduated from middle school. It was also my best summer of travel ball. After being rejected from the A squad, because of my height for a first baseman, I hit over .500 while displaying the superb defense that kept a short kid like me at the position for so long. When we played the A team at the end of the season, I collected two hits. Their two 1b, both measuring over 6 feet as 14 year old kids, continued their season of misery. The redemption was awesome.

By 2007 I made it out to Yankee Stadium for the first time. It was August 30th and the Yankees completed a three game sweep of the Boston Red Sox. Robbie Cano, my favorite Yankee, hit two first pitch homers off Curt Schilling. Chien-Ming Wang tossed 6 2/3 of no-hit ball while Terry Francona was thrown out to the delight of the crowd. But so was Joba Chamberlain, the rookie sensation, for throwing at Kevin Youkilis. Derek Jeter was 4-4 in the 5-0 win.

2008 saw the Yankees miss the postseason for the first time since I started watching baseball; it was also the year I stopped playing summer ball. I turned 17 and celebrated it at Yankee Stadium. The Yankees beat post-season bound Tampa Bay, 8-4. Derek Jeter tied the Yankee Stadium hit record, a home run off then rookie David Price, who was making his ML debut. Carl Pavano also made his last career start for the Yankees- one of 26 for them in four seasons. He left with an injury in the sixth inning. Two weeks later, the lights had closed on “Old” Yankee Stadium.

2009 was my first season on varsity and I was the lead-off hitter no less. Including the pre-season, I started the year 10-17 with 7 doubles. It was shaping up to be my best season. Until I separated my shoulder diving for a ball in right field. The Yankees also won 103 games that year. A-Rod went on a post-season tear, as the Yankees dominated the Twins and Angels en route to the World Series. There, they beat the defending champion Philadelphia Phillies. Game 2 featured throwback “Who’s Your Daddy?” chants directed at Pedro Martinez. Game 4 featured Johnny Damon’s heads up steal of third base. Game 6 featured Hideki Matsui mashing Pedro as the Yankees won their 27th World Series. For as much as I love the 1998 Yankees for sentimental reasons, the 2009 Yankees will always be “my team” because it was the only true World Series I could really appreciate and understand. In 2000, the last time the Yankees won it, I was 9. Now I was 18. Derek Jeter was 26 in 2000 and had a 3.7 fWAR. In 2009 he was 35 and had a 6.8 fWAR.

In 2010 I made the decision to attend Rutgers University, to pursue a degree in Sport Management. I knew my baseball career was coming to an end, but I wanted to work in the game somehow. I struggled for most of my final season on varsity. So too, did Derek Jeter that season. It was the first below average offensive season of his career.

2011 was my second full decade on Planet Earth. But just several days before I turned 20, I lost my grandma, one of the most special people in my life. She was the biggest Yankee fan I knew and it was her house where I remember watching the Yankees as a kid. She would cheer on Derek “Cheero” in her Italian accent, boo “that bum” Joe Torre, and reminisce about Mickey Mantle. Derek Jeter notched his 3000th hit this season, a home run off David Price, on an afternoon that saw him go 5-5 at the Stadium.

I turned 21 in 2012 and moved off-campus. Rutgers almost made the Orange Bowl, but had a second half collapse against Teddy Bridgewater and the Louisville Cardinals. Derek Jeter had a bounce back season, putting up his first 3.0 fWAR season since 2009. In 2013, I got my first position in the sports field. An Event and Operations internship with the Rutgers Athletic Department. Derek Jeter missed most of the season with an ankle injury as the Yankees missed the postseason.

2014 saw me land my first position in baseball- a dream come true- as a promotions intern with the Lehigh Valley IronPigs. I graduated in May with the highest GPA in my major. I went to Phoenix, LA (and saw Kershaw pitch), and met some amazing people while working in the LV. I partied on a NYC rooftop for the 4th of July, attended the Brooklyn Cyclone’s Seinfeld Night, and landed my first, real, full-time job with the Frisco RoughRiders and moved my entire life to a Dallas suburb. It also saw my favorite player, Robinson Cano, spurn the Yankees for the Seattle Mariners of all teams. It saw the Yankees miss the playoffs in consecutive seasons for the first time since I’ve been watching baseball. And it saw Derek Jeter struggle for the first time in his career.

So when Derek Jeter walked-off the Baltimore Orioles with his final Yankee Stadium at-bat and when Derek Jeter crossed the white lines for the last time today at Fenway, it was much more than his retirement to me. It was the end of my childhood. Ever since I can remember, Derek Jeter was the shortstop of my favorite team in my favorite pastime. Players changed, life happened. Yet he was the one constant. Now I’m 23, work full time, pay bills, and live on my own. And Derek Jeter is no longer the shortstop of the New York Yankees.

The rest of Derek Jeter’s life has just begun. So has mine.

Hall of Fame Players From My Generation

Posted July 29, 2014 by Disco
Categories: All Posts, Hall of Fame

I am 22 years old. My first vivid baseball memory is from 1998. I have been a die-hard fan ever since. Below are the players from that time period that ARE Hall of Fame players, but 90% of the baseball universe do not recognize as such- BECUZ OF TEH RBI’S AND W/L RECORDS!!

In no particular order…

 

Chase Utley: 287/.372/.493/.373/128+ 58/5 fWAR (6.2 per 650 PA)

So he has averaged 6 WAR a season for a 12 year career of which he has only played 140+ games four times. Now, being healthy is valuable in itself. But he has been so dominant that he is the rare player who is HOF worthy despite a shorter, injury plagued career. From 2005-2010 he was the second best player in the NL besides Albert Pujols. His WAR is also nearly identical to Jackie Robinson’s- a HOF second baseman.

Carlos Beltran: .281/.356/.494/.363/120 63.3 fWAR (4.5 PER 650 PA)

Carlos Beltran is the best base runner of our generation. He has 310 stolen bases at an 87% clip. That is insane. He was also a really, really good defensive center fielder who could get on-base and hit for power. Plus, if Andre Dawson is in the HOF, Carlos Beltran has to be.

Jim Edmonds: .284/.376/.527/.385/132+ 64.0 fWAR (5.2 per 650 PA)

Yeah, so Jim Edmonds is the white Ken Griffey Jr. No really, he is. Ken Griffey hit .284/.370/.538/.384/131+. Granted, he stuck around a few years longer than he should have so his numbers took a hit, but they are nearly identical. They both played every year from 1993-2010 and both made the jump from the AL to the NL in 2000. Griffey at his best was a better hitter than Edmonds, but Edmonds had the better glove.

Scott Rolen: .281/.364/.490/.368/122+ 69.9 fWAR (5.3 PER 650 PA)

There are only 10 HOF third baseman. Rolen is top 10 in career fWAR at the position. He should be enshrined next. In addition to being a fantastic hitter, he is arguably the best defensive third baseman ever outside Brooks Robinson, along with…

Adrian Beltre: .284/.335/.480/.349/114+ 68.0 fWAR (4.5 per 650 PA)

People look at his Seattle years and think he was a bust there. Those people are wrong. He was average to above average offensively but was a freak defensively. He was an All-Star caliber player during his time there. But he’s been an MVP level player since being freed from Safeco. Along with Rolen he is an all-time fielder at the position. And his 2004 still happened.

Mike Mussina: 3562 IP, 7.11 K/9, 1.98 BB/9, 0.95 HR/9, 3.68 FIP, 82.5 fWAR (4.6 per 200 IP)

He has a nearly identical career to Curt Schilling. Curt Schilling is a HOF’er. People think Schilling is a HOF’er. A lot of people do not think Mussina is. They think this because he missed out on so much- Cy Young’s, a perfect game, a World Series title, etc, etc. He was also overshadowed by other HOF’ers- Pedro Martinez, Randy Johnson, and Roger Clemens. Yet Mussina was a control freak who consistently dominant for over a decade.

Kevin Brown: 3256 IP, 6.62 K/9, 2.49 BB/9, 0.57 HR/9, 3.28 FIP, 73.5 fWAR (4.5 per 200 IP)

Most people remember Kevin Brown for his “failed” stint as a New York Yankee. But that was at the end of his career. At his best he pitched at an elite, MVP level for five seasons from 1996-2000. That’s in addition to pitching at an All-Star level the four years prior to that. I’ll vote in a guy who pitched at that level for ten seasons.

Nomar Garciaparra: .313/.361/.521/.376/124+ 41.5 fWAR (4.4 per 650 PA)

From 1997-2000 he was better than both Derek Jeter and A-Rod. Yes, injuries cut his career short. But he was the premiere shortstop of the AL’s three-headed monster in the late 90′s. On a career longevity he should not be in. But to put up the career numbers he did in such a short amount of time is so amazing that I can live with such a short peak/career. I recognize that Nomar is my most controversial pick and he should be penalized for having such a short career. But when he was healthy…oh boy.

 

And guys who many think are Hall of Famers but aren’t quite:

Larry Walker- I used to think he was.

Todd Helton- I really used to think he was.

Jeff Kent

Vladimir Guerrero- I could either way. But his defense was atrocious to the point it hurt his offensive value enough to drop him below the HOF range.

Gary Sheffield

 

This is just a list of guys off my head. I’m sure there are more I can think of but it’s late.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Don Mattingly: Best Player At His Peak?

Posted January 5, 2014 by Disco
Categories: All Posts, Baseball general

Tags: , , , , , ,

When looking at Don Mattingly’s Hall of Fame case many journalists mention how Mattingly was the best player in baseball during his peak and before his back was a problem. So that got me thinking- was Don Mattingly truly the best player in baseball during his peak?

Mattingly’s peak was four years- 1984 to 1987. He accumulated a 24.7 fWAR which was good for 6.2 WAR per season or 5.8 WAR/650 PA. So Mattingly was an MVP level player for four seasons- pretty dang good. Mattingly played another eight seasons after 1987 but only had a 3+ WAR season twice and only had 600+ PA a season four times in that span. His average wRC+ was 152 so the man could hit. This was achieved with a high .300′s OBP and mid .500′s SLG.

As the numbers show Mattingly does have a good case for the being the best player in baseball during his peak. But was he really “the best”?

Candidates:

Rickey Henderson- 2392 PA, .289/.397/.484/.391/145+; 274 SB, 26.7 fWAR, 7.3 WAR/650PA

Tim Raines- 2674 PA, .323/.409/.477/.388/146+; 265 SB, 26.6 fWAR, 6.5 WAR/650PA

Wade Boggs- 2844 PA, .353/.442/.489/.411/152+; 31.4 fWAR, 7.2 WAR/650PA

Cal Ripken- 2858 PA, .280/.352/.469/.362/124+; 25.6 fWAR, 5.8 WAR/650PA

Mike Schmidt- 2547 PA, .284/.384/.541/.395/148+; 24.3 fWAR, 6.2 WAR/650PA

Tony Gwynn- 2727 PA, .341/.400/.457/.376/139+; 24.2 fWAR, 5.8 WAR/650PA

After looking at it, I do not think Mattingly was the best player in baseball during his peak. Of the candidates, I would take Henderson, Raines, Boggs, Ripken, and Schmidt over him. Why? When it comes to Henderson and Raines I think both were simply better players. Mattingly certainly had more power, but Rickey and Raines were better OBP who could field, hit, and run. Mattingly was simply a hitter who played first base. That is partly why I would also take Mike Schmidt and Cal Ripken as well. Third and short are more valuable positions- and both Schmidt and Ripken were exceptional fielders who are also all-time hitters at their respective positions. As for Boggs, I think he may be the best player between 1984 and 1987, if not Rickey or Raines.

In the end though, it’s super close and still being a top five player at your peak is still impressive.

 

Hall of Fame Watch: Mike Mussina and Curt Schilling

Posted January 4, 2014 by Disco
Categories: All Posts, Hall of Fame

Tags: , ,

The voting results for the 2014 Hall of Fame ballot will be released next week. It might be the most stacked ballot ever (until 2015). So over the next couple days I will try to highlight a couple players on the ballot.

First- the obvious “yes” players to both stat and non-stat fans: Greg Maddux, Frank Thomas, Jeff Bagwell, Edgar Martinez.

Maddux and Thomas are HOF’ers to the SABR crowd and non-SABR crowd. Bagwell is a no-doubter unless you think he was a PED-user. Martinez is a no-doubter if you get off the “he was a DH!” high horse. Dude finished with a .300/.400/.500 line. Offensive era and ballpark? He still had a 60+ fWAR career with the DH positional hit affecting his WAR.

With that, let’s take a quick look at Mike Mussina and his statistical twin, Curt Schilling.

Here are his stats:

3562 IP, 3.68 ERA, 3.57 FIP, 7.11 K/9, 1.98 BB/9, 0.95 HR/9, 1.19 WHIP, 82.5 fWAR, 4.6 fWAR/200IP

Let’s work backwards on this one. He has a career 82.5 WAR. That puts him at 19th, ALL-TIME. If you go by bWAR Mussina is still the in the top 20. In case you’re wondering, there are most than 20 pitchers in the Hall of Fame. Now let’s see why his WAR is so high.

He was a control master. His highest BB/9 was 2.55 in 1996. Retiring with a sub 2.0 BB/9 is absurd. For comparison, Greg Maddux, who many consider to be one of the best strike throwing pitchers of all-time, had a BB/9 of 1.80. So Mussina kept runners off base which helped keep runs off the board.

His one flaw was the long ball. However, consider the context- in pitched in Camden Yards and Yankee Stadium during an era of high home runs that. Although high, his HR/9 is still under 1.0 at 0.85.

The average HOF pitcher throws 3788 career innings. Mussina is about 200 innings or a season short of that. On average Mussina pitched 198 innings a season- a figure which jumps to 204 if you remove his rookie season where he made just 12 starts. So Mussina was a consistent pitcher who could be relied on for 200+ innings a season.

Overall, Mussina is a great HOF candidate who would actually be one of the better pitchers to be inducted into Cooperstown.

Now we can look at Mussina’s twin, Curt Schilling.

3261 IP, 3.46 ERA, 3.23 FIP, 8.60 FIP, 1.96 BB/9, 0.96 HR/9, 1.14 WHIP, 83.2 fWAR, 5.1 WAR/200IP

Mussina threw exactly 301 more career innings. They are within 1 WAR of each other, 0.05 WHIP, 0.001 HR/9, and 0.00 BB/9. Wow. Both were strike throwers who walked very few and gave up the long ball with some frequency, but not enough to dampen their effectiveness. Removing seasons where he pitched out of the bullpen, Schilling was good an average of 202 innings per year. He hit his peak in the late 1990s and early 2000s when he would throw 250-270 innings a season.

Where Schilling and Mussina differ is the strikeout and and “dominance”. Schilling strike out just about a batter an inning. Strikeouts are the best way to prevent runs and Schilling was fantastic at that. Moreover, from 1998-2004 Schilling had five MVP-caliber WAR seasons (above 6.0) including two in the 7′s, two in the 8′s, and one at 9.3 in 2002. On the other hand, Mussina had “just” three MVP WAR seasons and all were in the 6′s. Instead though, he consistently sat around 5-6 WAR year after year, whereas Schilling would peak and valley between 7 WAR seasons and 3 WAR seasons.

Either way, both pitchers had phenomenal careers. If Mussina is HOF worthy then Schilling should definitely be worthy. When it comes to the three true outcomes, both are identical with BB and HR, but Schilling did a better job striking batters out, which is better at preventing base runners and runs then letting a ball be hit into play.

 

 

Adios Robinson Cano

Posted December 6, 2013 by Disco
Categories: All Posts, Baseball general

Tags: , ,

This morning Robinson Cano signed a reported 10/$240mil contract with the Seattle Mariners. With all the speculation in the past day I can’t say this is a surprise but I did not think he would sign with Seattle so fast- but I also didn’t think they would go to 10/$240mil so fast.

A month or so ago I wrote about what a potential Robinson Cano contract would look like. In it I surmised that a contract could be worth up to $198mil over ten years but also could be worth up to $240mil depending on the team. I do think Robinson Cano for ten years is worth $240mil- for the New York Yankees. For the Seattle Mariners he is worth closer to $198mil than $240mil so I have to say this a overpay. Not only is it an overpay but it’s an overreach in terms of years. Even if Robinson ages well, one has to imagine that the contract will be dead weight come 2021 and beyond.

If Seattle figures to be a possible playoff team in the near future and Cano is the piece that puts them over the hump then one can see why they would make this deal. As it stands, Seattle won 75 games in 2012. Nick Franklin, who was the expected starter at second for Seattle, is projected to have a 1.5 fWAR by Steamer and 2.6 fWAR by Oliver. Let’s split the difference at 2.0 fWAR. Cano is projected by each at 5.4 and 4.6 so let’s call it 5.0. That is a three win upgrade at the price of $24mil or $8mil per win. And it only jumps Seattle up to a nearly .500 baseball team.

Going forward Seattle could be a playoff team down the road. But by the time this happens, Cano will be in his decline and not as valuable as he currently is. Yet he will still be owed a lot of money could prevent the Mariners from signing players they could sign down the line to contend.

While a large contract made sense for the Yankees, especially in the short run, they did not want to go past seven years- and I can’t blame them for that. Long term contracts of that magnitude rarely turn out well and New York has learned that first hand with contracts they have handed out to Jason Giambi, Mark Teixeira, and Alex Rodriguez. With the money “saved” they can try to make up for the lost value in others- possibly by signing Masahiro Tanaka, Omar Infante, and Carlos Beltran or Shin-soo Choo. Granted, this will eat up more roster spots than the one spot Cano would have taken, but it could save them money and years.

As for Robinson, I can’t blame him. Yes, I wish he stayed. I wish he chose a plaque at Monument Park over $240mil. I wish he chose to be a Yankee legend over $240mil. But he earned a big payday and he took it as he and other players have every right to. Hopefully when he returns to the Bronx he isn’t greeted with a chorus of boos.

I think it’s also interesting that a Yankee star at the height of his career LEFT the Yankees. For Seattle of all places. Imagine this scenario playing out five years ago? Ten years ago? Even with the signings of Brian McCann and Jacoby Ellsbury, it appears as if the Empire is dead.

Finally, Robinson Cano is the one player I can’t help but partial to. Not seeing him in the Yankee lineup everyday is going to hurt. Yet life goes on. Adios Robbie, and good luck in Seattle.

Hopefully this weekend I will put up a post outline what the Yankees should do now.

 

 

 

Yankees Sign Jacoby Ellsbury

Posted December 4, 2013 by Disco
Categories: All Posts, Uncategorized

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WOW. I am nearly speechless. Waiting in line for dining hall take out and I got the ESPN text saying the New York Yankees signed Jacoby Ellsbury. This is huge news with a lot of implications.

The contract is 7/$153mil meaning an AAV of nearly $22mil. Ellsbury will be 30 for most of the 2014 season and will be 37 when the contract is over. Ellsbury has had some fantastic seasons but has also had some maddeningly poor seasons. In 2011 he had a phenomenal 9.1 fWAR season. But that dipped to 1.4 in 2012 as he battled injuries and saw his wOBA drop from .400 to .300. He rebounded in 2013 to post a 5.8 fWAR with a .343 wOBA.

Year

Age

xWAR

$/WAR

Value

Salary

2014

30

3.9

5

19.5

~22

2015

31

3.4

5.25

17.85

~22

2016

32

2.9

5.51

15.98

~22

2017

33

2.4

5.79

13.90

~22

2018

34

1.9

6.08

11.55

~22

2019

35

1.4

6.38

8.93

~22

2020

36

0.9

6.70

6.03

~22

Total

-

16.8

-

93.74

153

Steamer projects a 3.9 fWAR for Ellsbury in 2014 and as he ages I decreased his WAR by 0.5 each season while adjusting 5% for inflation each season.

3.9 might be a low forecast for 2014 but I think it’s realistic so that’s what I went with. All things considered it seems like the Yankees have much higher expectations for Ellsbury. And I hope so because this deal looks TERRIBLE even if you factor in the Yankees win curve and other additional factors that go into analyzing the Yankees unique position in the market.

The Yankees will pay Ellsbury $153mil for an estimated $94mil in value- a difference of $59mil! This is why long term contracts are bad. It’s very hard to get full or even good value on a contract that goes over four or five years. It’s even worse when you aren’t even projected to get good value after four or five years.

With the additional news that the Seattle Mariners will pay Robinson Cano $200mil or more it looks like his days as a Yankee will come to an end. My forecasts have Cano being worth about $162mil over seven years. Robinson Cano is the player worth $150mil+ not Jacoby Ellsbury. It’s even more head scratching when New York has a center fielder for cheap already- that player being Brett Gardner who has arguably been just as good as Ellsbury over their past few full seasons.

Maybe New York is going to go past their self-imposed $189mil budget and can still sign Cano. But all indications seem to be that they will now focus on Hiroki Kuroda and Masahiro Tanaka while signing Omar Infante for cheap to play second and/or third. As stated I think the smarter move would be to pony up a little bit more to keep Cano than grossly overpay for Jacoby Ellsbury. Even if you think Ellsbury will be better than I project- which the Yankees seem to be doing- it won’t make up nearly the $60mil difference between value and actual salary.

I think this contract will play out similar to the one Carl Crawford signed after the 2010 season. He was going to enter his age 30 season. He got a 7/$142mil contract from the Red Sox (then under different leadership). He had similar K rates, BB rates, and ISO to Ellsbury. He was also a fantastic defender much like Ellsbury. Crawford has posted 3.0 fWAR in the three seasons since. Granted he has missed time to injuries, but the contract is turning into an albatross. I fear the same will happen to the Yankees.

Crawford is just one example of many. To use him as the sole example would be poor analysis, especially when other speed players have aged well. But it does show how risky a deal of this magnitude can be, especially for a player with similar skill sets (BB, K, ISO, speed, defense).

To conclude. Poorly done New York. I am curious to learn whether Brian Cashman approved of this or whether this idea is that of Randy Levine or Hal Steinbrenner, which would continue to show the lack of structure in New York’s front office. There is a reason why a well-run team, the Boston Red Sox, let go of their starting center fielder. He isn’t worth nine figures. As long as the Yankees continue to operate this way the gap between them and their rival to the north will continue to grow.

EDIT:

This Dave Cameron article looks at the decline of speedy outfielders. He notes that from age 30-36 this pool of comparable players to Jacoby Ellsbury averages 17 WAR, which isn’t bad. That’s right round the forecast I have for Ellsbury. He will age well, don’t get me wrong. But that’s not $153mil well. And THAT is my problem with the contract- not that Ellsbury will be a poor performer. Heck, he’s still worth almost $100mil over seven years!

Moreover, FanGraphs Crowdsourcing, which is pretty accurate, had a real life expectation of 6/$112mil and a fantasy expectation of 5/$83mil. Although older and not as productive, I think at 7/$153mil it would even make more sense to bring back Curtis Granderson at 3 years and a whole lot less money (although I am against that as well).

Tigers Trade Doug Fister to Nationals

Posted December 3, 2013 by Disco
Categories: All Posts, Baseball general

Tags: , , , , ,

This evening the Detroit Tigers traded starter Doug Fister to the Washington Nationals for Steve Lombardozzi, Robbie Ray, and Ian Krol. The Tigers continue their busy off-season but I’m not so sure I’m a fan of this deal.

Doug Fister is a very sold #2-#3 pitcher. From 2010 through 2013 he has posted fWAR’s of 2.6, 5.2, 3.5, and 4.6. He has consistently posted a mid 3′s FIP and has excellent control. While he may not strike a lot of batters out, he has a great walk rate and ground ball rate, so he doesn’t give up many home runs. The result of walking few batters and allowing few long balls means he’s effective at not giving up runs. He will be turning 30 in 2014 and is cost-controlled through the 2015 season.

Steam projects Fister to have a 3.3 fWAR in 2014. At $5mil a win, that’s $16.5mil in value. If he is a 3 WAR pitcher in 2015 at $5.25mil a win, that’s $15.75mil in value for a two year total of $32.25mil. Fister made $4mil in 2013 after his season arbitration eligible season. Using the 40/60/80 rule we can expect Fister to make $9.9mil in 2014 and $12.6mil in 2015. However, I don’t think that’s realistic. One reason being that his salary increase from 2013 to 2014 would be over a 100% increase. I think we can more reasonably look at a $6.5mil contract for 2014 and a $9-$11mil contract in 2015. As a result, his net value for 2014-2015 is an estimated $16mil.

Steve Lombardozzi will be cost-controlled for the next four years. He is a second baseman but can be used in the utility role for Detroit between second, short, third, and the corner outfield. While he has a great minor league track record, he has struggled mightily in his first two seasons at Washington. His above average BB rate in the minors has fallen to 3.7% through 700+ PA leading to a career wOBA of .281. Ouch. Now, he may still have potential yet because he is young and has a minor league track record. But starting in 2015 he will have to be paid a few million dollars to produce at replacement level production.

The Tigers will also be getting relievers Ian Krol and Robbie Ray. Now, Ray still is a starting pitcher. But through three minor league seasons he has struggled with walks and home runs, which points to a career as a future reliever if he can’t fix his problems. Ian Krol is a former starter himself before the Nationals converted him to a reliever. He is a lefty which is valuable out of the pen and had a decent rookie season. The Tigers have been trying to fix their pen for a couple seasons now so one can see where they are coming from in this trade.

I just don’t think you trade a great starting pitcher for your utility guy and a couple relievers. The Tigers don’t have any ready replacement for Fister in the rotation and his production at the ML level over the next two seasons will be greater than anyone they are getting back in the trade. As a team that is looking to win it all NOW I don’t see how the team helps them NOW.

As for Washington, they get a solid starter for their backup second baseman and utility player and some relievers. I like it from their perspective. They have a good rotation as it is and the addition of Fister will help separate them in a relatively weak division (outside of Atlanta). I don’t think the package Washington is giving up is worth the $16mil of value they will be getting from Fister.

 


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