Phillies in trouble

Entering the season, the Phillies had been to back to back World Series in 2008 and 2009. Many people had them pegged as the best team in the National League. Add in the fact that they picked up Doc Halladay and you could forgetaboutit.

But with the half-way point of the season approaching, the Phillies sit in third place at 41-35, three games behind the Atlanta Braves in the NL East. Meanwhile, Chase Utley, the Phillies best player, has been placed on the DL along with Placido Polanco.

The road ahead could be brutal to Philadelphia. Greg Dobbs, who is replacing Polanco, and Wilson Valdez, who is replacing Utley, are both below average players. Yes, Philly still has Ryan Howard, Jimmy Rollins, Jayson Werth, and Shane Victorino in the lineup, but they are missing out on two players who have combined for a 5.2 WAR so far. The drop off between that and their replacements is HUGE. If Utley and Polanco are out for an extended period of time, it could be Philly’s death sentence as the Braves do not look to be letting up, and the Mets will only be getting stronger with the addition of Carlos Beltran.

One break for Philly is the fact that the AS break is coming up shortly. If they can manage their way through the next twelve games, then they could be fine. But if Utley and Polanco aren’t back by the time the break ends, it could mean serious trouble. After opening the second half with four against the Cubs, the Phillies have four games with the Cardinals and four games with the Rockies- two solid ball clubs.

I never would have imagined this scenario back in March, but the Phillies appear likely to miss out on the postseason for the first time since 2006.

Sweet, sweet victory

Thanks again, Clueless Joe.

Edwin Jackson.

Is German.

Has no hit the Rays.

So in honor of his no-hitter……. Here’s some German.

Congrats Edwin. Einige weird shit ist in diesem Jahr gehen. Rays habe kein Treffer zum zweiten Mal in diesem Jahr, lol.

Is Craig Biggio a Hall of Famer?

The answer may seem obvious to the casual fan- yes. Biggio is in the 3000 hit club, has over 400 stolen bases, and 668 career doubles. Not to mention his Silver Slugger hardware and ASG appearances. But to the SABR fan, it may be closer than it appears. While he has a career 70.1 WAR, a good mark, his WAR/700 is just 3.9- not exactly HOF standards. Moreover, a total WAR of 70.1 is impressive, but he compiled that over a twenty year career consisting of 2850 games.

To solve the case, I dug deeper. In the 1990’s the dood was awesome. He posted a 3+ WAR every season and according to Rally, a 3+ WAR season is an excellent. So Biggio posted ten straight excellent seasons in the 1990’s. Amazing. Within the decade, he composed three MVP worthy seasons of 6+ WAR in 1995, 1997, and 1998. But in the new millennium he fell off a cliff. He posted just one season above a 3+ WAR. While his last eight seasons count when making a decision, how much should we punish him for a steep decline? In his prime he had ten excellent seasons, which is more than most players can say for themselves.

I say you cannot punish him for falling off the face of the earth. He played at a Hall of Fame level for an entire decade. Not even some HOF’ers can say that. Rod Carew- a fellow second baseman who also played another position in his career- has a WAE (Wins Above Excellent) of 30.2 or 37.6% of his total WAR. Biggio’s is 22.5 or 32.1% of his total. I bet that’s closer than you would have imagined.

Biggio’s career line is .281/.363/.433/.355wOBA/120wRC+. Not too shabby for a second baseman, catcher, and center fielder. In his ten year peak though, his OBP stayed in the .378 to .411 range. His wOBA ranged from .347 to .410. His wRC+ ranged from 122 to 156. In fact, he topped a 150 wRC+ three times as a second baseman. Again, not too shabby.

Biggio was a fantastic player before he got old, and that is why he should be in the Hall of Fame. I have two graphs comparing him to Roberto Alomar, a fellow second baseman who I and many others consider a HOF’er. Why Alomar? Simply because they both broke into the majors in 1988 and considering the length of Biggio’s career, I need a comparison player who also had a long career.

The first graph their career WAR in order by season. The second graph is a graph of their single season WAR from best to worst.

Biggio is right on par with Alomar in terms of WAR as the graphs show. Alomar might have been slightly better, but only slightly. During the 1990’s, Biggio was arguably the best second baseman in baseball and in the top tier of players in the entire game. You simply cannot punish him for staying in the game too long. By doing so, he hurt his rate numbers such as OBP, SLG, and wOBA. But when he was going full force, he was playing at a HOF level.

In the end though, whether you think he will be a weak HOF’er or not, it is quite clear the BBWAA will vote him in. And they should.

Smokin’ hot

…is how one must describe Dustin Pedroia after he went 5-5 last night with a double and three(!) homers.

One June 1 he was hitting .254/.331/.445. Just twenty-five days later he is hitting .293/.369/.503/.382wOBA/135wRC+. His average climbed forty points. His OBP climbed sixty points. His slugging climbed fifty points. And during the hot streak, he had eleven multi-hit games.

Before the season and even during the season, many stat heads saw Dustin Pedroia as the best second baseman in baseball not named Chase Utley. BtB ranked him as the 16th best player in baseball going forward over the next five years.

The season started out strong for Pedroia as he crushed home runs and extra base hits, but then May rolled in. Pedroia struggled greatly, and saw his numbers plummet to career lows. Meanwhile, his AL East second base foe and counterpart got off to one of the best starts in all of baseball. Suddenly, Pedroia was no longer a Prince waiting to take the crown from Utley.

Not to brag, but I never gave in to the crowd. I just knew- knew– Pedroia would turn it around. He has been a great defender, but there was no way he would hit like he did in May all season. I don’t have batted splits for certain time frames, otherwise I’d look at it to see if he was just getting unlucky due to SSS, but I would imagine that played some role in his slump.

The most amazing thing about Pedroia’s season is his power. His ISO stands at .211 right now, fifty-five points above his career average .156. In the off-season he vowed to hit more home runs and so far he is following through on that promise. He is on pace to hit the most homers for himself in a season, and his HR/FB% is a career high 11.5% despite hitting fly balls at the same rate he always has. While he will never lead the league in home runs, adding a power element to an offensive game that already includes good contact and on base skills means Dustin Pedroia could become of the best all around hitters and players in baseball, not just second base.

Right now, Pedroia’s WAR stands at 3.2. He has a career high .382 wOBA (.362 park-adjusted though). His defense has been phenomenal again as he sports a 9.2 UZR/150 and +9 DRS. Call me crazy, but I predict he will have the highest WAR among AL second basemen by seasons end and he will continue to be the best second baseman in the AL. Yes, I know.

Just trust me.

Alex Gordon and other Royal thoughts

It’s time to start the campaign- FREE ALEX GORDON.

Right now, as we speak, Alex Gordon is in Omaha learning how to play left field. He’s been in Omaha for 47 games. In those games he is only hitting .327/.471/.569 with 38 walks to 50 strikeouts. Yes, he is striking out in 22% of his PA so far, but his BB rate is 17%. In 30 MiLB games last season, he hit .327/.451/.558 with a 23:24 BB:K ratio. It is quite clear he needs to be at a higher level than AAA. Meanwhile, the Royals have been playing Alberto Callaspo at third base. Yes, the same Alberto Callaspo of the 92 wRC+.

I really want to know what Gordon has to do to get a call-up to Kansas City. Yes, he struggled this season with KC- in TWELVE GAMES! Yes, he struggled in 2009- over the span of FORTY-NINE GAMES! That’s a grand total of 61 games. In 2007 and 2008 he played in 285 games at the ML level, compiling 4.4 WAR. His rookie season his wRC+ was a lowly 89, but in 2008 it was 109, showing that he has hit in at the highest level over an extended season.

So he had success during his first two seasons. That’s a 285 game sample size compared to a 61 game sample size. It’s seems awfully unfair to consider Gordon a bust based on 1/3 a season’s worth of data. That’s not to mention he is still young and young players- even top prospects like him- struggle sometimes. Gordon went down to the minors and is raking there. He needs to be back in Kansas City so we can see if his improvement is real. Should he continue to struggle, he can’t be any worse than Callaspo. But I doubt Gordon fails.

Look, Gordon will probably never be the star most people thought he would be. But he has smoked pitching in AA back when he was a prospect, and has smoked AAA pitching in 2009 and 2010. The only way he can improve at this point is to do so at the ML level. He needs to get his old third base job back- especially since it’ll enhance his value compared to left field. He may have hit poorly in 2009 and 2010, but that was across just 61 games. If given a real opportunity, Gordon will prove he is a quality starter at the big league level.

***

Kila Ka’aihue. Why won’t KC call him up? In 2008 across AA and AAA he hit .314/.456/.628 with 104 BB to 67 K over 505 PA. So far in 2010 he’s hit .314/.483/.567 with 65 BB to 46 K over 259 PA. Over his professional career Kila has shown a fantastic ability to walk and get on base, while also hitting for average and power. Kansas City, just call him up. DH him. Put him at first and DH Billy Butler. Just do something. Don’t let him waste in Omaha until he’s a corpse.

How the Mets should handle the Carlos Beltran/Angel Pagan situation

To begin, I can’t believe this needs a post. The answer is simple. Start Beltran in center, slide Pagan to right, and bench Francouer. But to most Mets fans and some writers, this is a serious question. They believe Pagan should start over Beltran and that Beltran might be hurting the team. Yeah, I know, it’s stoopid. We’re talking about future HOF’er Carlos Beltran v. Angel Pagan. C’mon media. I know you guys are mediots, but don’t fall below the Mendoza Line.

Yes, Angel Pagan is currently in the top fifteen among all MLB OF when it comes to WAR (he has 2.5). He’s been a nice surprise, providing some offense with solid defense. His rest of season projection believes that he’ll keep his current level of production. But we’re talking about Carlos Beltran, who was the best center fielder in baseball before the surgery. Yes, he is older now and his injuries may cut into his defensive range and base running ability. At the same time though, he should be able to hit and a weaker Carlos Beltran probably is still the best outfielder the Mets have.

Really though, the whole situation shows the narrow mindedness of some people. Yes, Beltran and Pagan are both center fielders. Does that mean we can’t be creative? You solve the problem by moving one of them to the corner outfield- in this case I would move Pagan. It’s not like the Mets have a loaded outfield. Jeff Francouer sucks. You can’t worry about his ego, contract, or past potential. Francouer has been terrible for three years now. In the past three seasons his total WAR is 0.0. Bench him. Move Pagan to left. Insert Beltran in center. Case closed.

Kthxbye Jerry Manuel!

Brennan Boesch’s hot start

Through 47 games and 190 PA, the Tiger’s Brennan Boesch has been hitting the shit out of the ball. His current line is .337/.384/.617/.428/168wRC+. I don’t know about you, but I’d consider that pretty damn good. Obviously, Tiger fans have been quite pleased with Boesch so far. Which is why one fan recently asked me if he’ll keep it up, or fall down to earth because of an all too high BABIP. So I took some time out of my busy, busy day to answer his question.

Let me be blunt to start- yes, I believe he will fall quite a bit from his current .428 wOBA and 168 wRC+. But he is still a worthwhile hitter.

To start, his average will surely fall. Right now he is hitting well above .300, but he’ll be having a date with Mr. Regression real soon. Why? His BABIP is .380, well above his already high BA. Now sure, good average hitters have a high BABIP. But that’s because they have good LD rates or speed. Boesch does not have exceptional speed, nor a good LD%. Right now Boesch’s LD% is 15.8%. While not a great stat or indicator, his xBABIP is .278. That doesn’t mean he should be hitting .278, but it’s safe to say he won’t be hitting .337 much longer.

Going onto his OBP and discipline, Boesch is a free swinger. The league average swing% is 45.1%. Boesch swings at 59.9% of the pitches he sees. That’s a Vlad Guerrero level. Which isn’t exactly a good thing for him. Not many hitters are successful swinging at that many pitches, unless they have the talent of Vlad Guerrero. I’m going to say Boesch is not as talented as Vlad Guerrero. Moreover, Boesch swings at way too much at pitches outside the zone- 45.2% compared to the league average of 28.3%. Once again, unless you have the hitting ability of Vlad Guerrero, that’s going to bite you in the ass. Boesch’s walk rate is also below average, coming in at 6.8%. This tells me that as of right now, Boesch is a free swinger not looking to take a walk. So his OBP value will be tied into his average. As I already stated, he’s not going to be a good average hitter going forward. So it appears as if Boesch won’t provide much in terms of getting on base, which is pretty important when it comes to baseball. But there is another aspect to hitting- power.

Boesch sports a .617 slugging percentage with a .280 ISO and HR/FB% of 17.9%. Will this come down? Considering his SSS, I would imagine. In the minors, he possessed average to below average power, except for his 2009 season at AA. Maybe something changed for him in 2009, so that he has legit power. But he has always had a below average BA and OBP. So while he may harness some power, he won’t be getting on base much.

Although he may look like a stud through 200 PA, Boesch seems more like a .275/.330/.460 type player off my head without doing any regression. While that’s a far cry from his current level of production, it’s still worthy of a spot in a ML lineup.

Learn the Names!

Sure you know Roy Halladay, Tim Lincecum, Felix Hernandez, Johan Santana, CC Sabathia, Jon Lester, etc.., but there are other pitchers this season that are making a name for themselves. In 2010 the wide spread of pitching has grown throughout the league. Younger stars are coming out of the woodworks and are thriving so far almost half way into the season. These are the guys who are still on your fantasy waiver wire for the first week and then everyone sees their production and grabs hold to them. Not only are these guys pitching well most are in the Cy Young race for their respected leagues. I think I can officially say that Major League Baseball is a pitchers league. I’ll be talking about 3 that pop out to me.

Francisco Liriano – Minnesota Twins

Liriano had an amazing 2006 season. He and Johan Santana had enough to get the Twins to the playoffs that season and win their division within the last week. Liriano posted a 4.1 WAR that season, but disaster struck in Minnesota. The younger left hander need to get Tommy John surgery. Leading him to sitting out for the 2007 season. I was very excited that he was going to be able to play again because how well he pitched for the Twins in 2006. I knew he had some nasty pitches and could dominate a league. It would take time though. Liriano struggled in his first two seasons back. Posting numbers like these.

2008 :
ERA – 3.97
FIP – 3.87
2009 :
ERA – 5.80
FIP – 4.87

2008 wasn’t that bad, but what scared many people was he got worse in 2009. Well in 2010 he is second in WAR(3.3 is on pace to break his 2006 WAR) by pitchers behind Roy Halladay. Pretty nice company huh? Liriano has a 2.90 ERA and a even lower FIP which is 2.11. The numbers show that he is doing a lot of things much better in 2010 than in 2009.

In 2009 he had a GB% of 40% in 2010 that is up by 9%. This is not the only thing he improved in. His LOB% in 2009 was 66.3%, around 6% off from the league average. In 2010 its 75.6% that is above league average. His 4.28 BB/9 in 2009 is down to 2.34 in 2010. Letting less runners on base will help you win ball games for sure. He is also striking out more people. In 2009 a 8.03 to 2010 a 9.71. His WHIP is also down from 1.55 to 1.20. I expect Liriano to keep up his Cy Young caliber year, and is the key to keeping the Twins a contender in the American League.

Phil Hughes – New York Yankees

Philthy Phil is having an excellent year. In 2009 he played a huge role in the Yankees World Series season. He was the bridge to Mariano. When the 8th inning came we all know Phil Hughes was there to shut the door. But what we all know is that a good starter is better than a great reliever. His is more valuable as a starter. His 2.2 WAR a season ago is his WAR at this point this season. Joe Girardi made the right choice when putting Hughes into the 5th spot in this rotation. I agreed with the decision because I knew he was ready. By watching a ton of his games this year I can tell he’ll throw his best stuff until you hit it. In other words his mentality is “Heres my fastball try and hit it.” His curve ball is also a thing of beauty.

Hughes improved on some of his stats. Its hard to compare a reliever to a starter, but his GB% and FB% are basically the same. His LOB% is 75% unlike his 78% last year, but that is just hard to sustain as a starter. His BB/9 went down .30 from 2.93 to 2.63. If you take a look at his eight starts in 2008 you’d notice he has matured quite a lot since then. His ERA was 6.62 and his FIP was 4.34. He has a 60% LOB% and his WHIP was 1.71. Plus his BB/9 was .03 away from 4.00. Now he has a 3.11 ERA and a 2.90 FIP. I stated his 2010 LOB% and BB/9 above. Hughes came in as the 5th starter on the Yankees, but now is the best starter on the team so far.

HOOOS
Ricky Romero – Toronto Blue Jays

Romero has surprised many. I actually went a Yankee game last season vs. the Jays and he was pitching. The Yankees ended up winning in 11 innings, but early on I was wondering “how are we being shut down by Ricky Romero?” Well now I know! Romero had a 4.30 ERA and 4.33 FIP. What gets me is that he had a 75.5 LOB% and his ERA was still fairly high. I noticed that his rates have improved a bit though. The HR/FB rate is down 3%. His GB% is 1.6%. His 75.5 LOB% is now 76.3%. His 2009 K/9 was 7.13 and his BB/9 3.99. In 2010 his K/9 is 9.07 and his B/9 is 3.39.

So his problem is most likely that he walked a few runners and most likely the home run happened by his 12.8 HR/FB% in 2009. In 2010 he is getting more strikeouts which is getting him out of innings and jams. Another pitcher who will exceed his WAR from his previous season. He sits at 2.4. His pitching has been a key for the Jays early success.

Others : Clay Buchholz – Boston Red Sox, Shaun Marcum – Toronto Blue Jays, Jonathan Sanchez – San Francisco Giants, Jaime Garcia – St. Louis Cardinals, C.J. Wilson – Texas Rangers, Mike Pelfrey – New York Mets, David Price – Tampa Bay Rays, Mat Latos – San Diego Padres, Mike Leake – Cincinnati Reds, and many others.

Recognizing Scott Rolen’s Greatness

So many times we get caught up in following the all-time greats and we fail to pay attention to those who were not as great, but were still damn good players. This thread is going to focus on a player that never really got the recognition that he deserved over the course of his career. Even though his career is still ongoing and hes producing solid numbers, he is still not getting the recognition he should be getting. His career took place during the steroid era in which you could basically jack 40+ homers and you could be horrible defensively and still be considered a good player. However, baseball has shifted away from the power game with the abolition of steroids in the past couple of years and it has focused more on defense, which was always Rolen’s strength. Rolen was also one of those players, similarly to Ken Griffey Jr., that if he stayed on the field a lot more, he would have had a much better career. Given the amount of shoulder injuries that Rolen has had in his career, it is even more remarkable that he has battled back to being a solid everyday player and has been able to stay at third base and play good defense, thus not limiting his value. So maybe Rolen’s inability to consistently stay on the field limited some of his value to the common fan. However, anyone who follows baseball religiously knows that Rolen is a much better player than the common fan perceives him to be.

You don’t have to be a Cardinals fan to know who the most popular player in the Cardinals organization has been over the past decade. Rolen has been overshadowed by Albert Pujols as well as some other great Cardinals players on those strong World Series Cardinals teams. The Cardinals made the World Series in 2004 and won it in 2006. In those two year Rolen ended up having some of the best seasons of his career. In 2004, Rolen had the best year of his career. He posted career highs in home runs (34), OBP (.409), wOBA (.421), RC+ (162), and WAR (8.8). He also posted an outstanding UZR of 21.2. However, most impressively, Rolen was the most valuable player on his team in 2004 in terms of WAR. He had a higher WAR than both Pujols and Edmonds! In 2006, Rolen posted a .373 wOBA, 130 RC+, a UZR of 11.7 and a 5.5 WAR which was good for second best on his team. I think you can guess who might have been ahead of him in WAR. So as you can clearly see, Rolen was a key contributor on both of those World Series teams.

So we know that Rolen was important to the Cardinals success, but lets look at how his own success stacks up against some other third basemen. The following WAR Graph will show how Rolen’s career stacks up against Ron Santo, George Brett, and Brooks Robinson. I chose two players that played a lot longer and are considered much better players than Rolen and I chose Santo because he is on Rolen’s level in terms of length of career and many people feel like he should be a HOF’er.

The graph shows the cumulative WAR by age for these four players. Rolen stacks up pretty well here as he remains with the group throughout his prime years. He is right on par with Brooks Robinson and he only trails George Brett by about 8-10 WAR until through 30 years old. However, after the age of 30 Rolen’s curve flattens out. This is mostly because he began to be troubled by injuries and the most amount of games that he played since they won the World Series in 2006 was 128. He begins to fall behind Robinson, Santo, and Brett. If Rolen had stayed healthy, maybe he would have been on track to catch those three. Rolen’s WAR per 600 PA’s is 5.42, Santo’s is 5.06, Robinson’s is 4.82, and Brett’s is 4.72. Now im only doing this to show the impact that injuries had on Rolen. Im not implying that Rolen is better than any of these guys. This next graph shows his early 30’s injury impact even further in terms of WAR.

Here is each players WAR that corresponds to how old they were in that given year. You can clearly see that Rolen’s blue line is close to Brett’s and Robinson’s. Santo had a great peak and then declined early so his line is a good bit higher. Rolen tails off at about 32 and has not gotten 4+ WAR in a season since age 31. Brett and Robinson were able to maintain that success, which is why they are better players than Rolen.

So having said that, where does Rolen rank among third basemen all-time?

We know that these players are definitely better than Rolen.

– Eddie Mathews

– Mike Schmidt

– Brooks Robinson

– Chipper Jones

– George Brett

– Wade Boggs

These players are DEFINITELY better than Rolen. Im not going to put Alex Rodriguez, Edgar Martinez or Harmon Killebrew on this list because they played different positions for more than half their careers. So, that leaves guys like Paul Molitor, Ron Santo, Dick Allen, and Tony Perez. However, I am going to give Rolen the edge on these guys cause they have similar numbers offensively and Rolen is MUCH better defensively. However, that could be argued. Either way, Rolen ends up being a borderline top 10 third basemen of all-time.

I think I have made my point very clear. Rolen is not only one of the most underrated players in our era, he is one of the most underrated players of all-time. He is and should be a HOF’er and hes a top 10 third basemen of all-time. He has my recognition and hopefully he now has yours.