Handicapping the Awards – NL MVP Edition

Here we go, last of the award predictions.

The favorite

Jose Reyes – SS – New York Mets (5.5 WAR)

Considering he’s “only” played 87 games, I didn’t feel comfortable going with Reyes at first, but he’s clearly shown he’s been the best player in the NL this season, and despite playing in fewer games than other contender, he still has a nice lead in the WAR category. Reyes has an amazingly low 7% K rate and his .404 wOBA and 160 wRC+ are fantastic numbers for a shortstop. If the Mets trade him, whatever team that gets him will be adding an MVP for the stretch run.

The contenders

Andrew McCutchen – OF – Pittsburgh Pirates (4.9 WAR)

The Pirates are contending for the playoffs for the first time in nearly two decades, and leading the ship is young buc Andrew McCutchen (and that’s enough of the puns). Despite almost being snubbed for the All-Star game, McCutchen has shown he is arguably the best centerfielder in the game, or at least the NL. He has been a good fielder this season, gets on base, and hits for power. If the Pirates do win their division, he very well could emerge as the MVP.

Justin Upton – OF – (4.7 WAR)

Last season many were expecting superstar Justin Upton to break out. Unfortunately, that breakout was put on hold until this season. Upton figures to achieve a WAMVP (6.0+) and he has been a monster in leading the underdog D-Backs to a winning record thus far. Not only has he been a great fielder, but he can mash with a .392 wOBA and 144 wRC+. He may not win the award this season, but I would guess he’ll win a few in the future.

Shane Victorino – OF – (4.5 WAR)

So far the race continues to be mainly about the outfielders. Shane Victorino has been a tank this season and would probably be higher on my list if he had not missed so many games thus far. As of now, his WAR/700 is 9.6. Yeah, 9.6. Between superb defense and a 150 wRC+, Victorino has clearly been the Phillies most valuable everyday player and that could very well earn him an MVP award  if he stays strong the rest of the season.

Matt Kemp – OF – Los Angeles Dodgers (4.8 WAR)

Kemp would have been higher on my list if not for a brutal past month. But despite that month, he still has put off unworldly numbers. His line is .311/.392/.572/.419/170+. The Dodgers organization might be having a long season, but Kemp is a been a bright spot. His 2010 season was horrible, but as bad as it was, that’s how good this season has been. If he picks up his first half pace, he’ll have a legitimate chance to challenge the front runner, Jose Reyes.

The long shots

Matt Holliday – OF – St. Louis Cardinals (4.2 WAR)

Hey, another OF! Moreover, just like Victorino, Holliday has missed some time due to injury. While he has a 4.2 WAR, his WAR/700 is 9.2. For reference, Matt Kemp’s WAR/700 is 7.9. So yeah, Holliday has been awesome. I just believe the time he missed will cost him.

Ryan Braun – OF – Milwaukee Brewers (4.5 WAR)

Braun has always been a big hitter, and 2011 has been no different. His basic line of .321/.398/.583 has given him a .430 wOBA and 176 wRC+. In fact, his wRC+ leads the NL. While he may be a long shot, if Braun keeps hitting the way he has been there will be a shot.

Troy Tulowitzki – SS – Colorado Rockies (4.4 WAR)

Finally! A non-OF! Tulowitzki started off red-hot and then cooled down a lot. But he has been consistently good the past month or so and it’s showing in his numbers. Tulo has been fantastic with the glove, earning a full win with the leather alone. Team that up with a 124 wRC+ for a shortstop, and its not hard to see why he is in the running for MVP.

 

 

My take on a Justin Upton trade

The biggest rumor swirling around baseball these days is a potential Justin Upton trade. At first it seemed like Arizona was just toying around, but apparently they are serious and a few other teams want to get serious with Arizona. A potential trade of this magnitude has probably never occurred before in baseball  history.

I mean, we have a 23 year old All-Star, with a VERY FAVORABLE contract for the next five seasons, who has HALL OF FAME potential. A player like that isn’t put on the trade market very often. As Dave Cameron wrote back in July, “he’s not a star yet, but not only could he become one, he could be the best player in baseball”. I’d have to agree.

So lets do some calculations!

So for those keeping score, that’s a net value of $104.25mil! No joke. And if you ask me, his WAR estimates might even be a little too conservative. The scary part is that by age 27, he should just be entering his best seasons.

Using Victor Wang’s prospect value chart, we know that a top ten hitting prospect is worth $36.5mil, a top 11-25 hitter is worth $25.1mil, and a top level pitcher is worth about $15mil. So yeah, trading for Upton means trading away any prospect of value in your system.

As a Yankees fan, a trade is intriguing. We’d be getting a potential Hall of Fame, at the ripe age of 23, and chances are he’d be a Yankee for life well beyond 2015. As the Yankees deal with lofty contracts belonging Alex Rodriguez and Derek Jeter, among others, Upton will be relatively cheap. Especially from 2011-2013. Swisher will be gone after 2011 or 2012 anyway, with no internal replacement in sight. Trading for Upton would allow New York to trade Swisher, who could fetch a couple decent prospects which would somewhat “re-stock” the system after a possible Upton trade. But who would the Yankees give up?

The first name to pop up is obviously Jesus Montero. He is the number one positional prospect in baseball and many project his bat to play like Frank Thomas or Manny Ramirez as a catcher, if he can stick there. Would I give up him? Yes, but it would hurt. It would hurt since he is so close to joining the team after so many years of being awesome the minors. I’ve been waiting forever for him to debut. But he is still just potential. He could flop and fail. Upton has succeeded in the ML already and has Hall of Fame potential, as I’ve mentioned. Give me the sure thing. Especially since he would then probably remain a Yankee well past 2015 when his current deal is up.

Who else would the Yankees have to give up? I’d imagine some names would be Dellin Betances, Andrew Brackman, Manny Banuelos, Hector Noesi, and Ivan Nova. Outside Banuelos, I would give all of them up. Dellin could be a beast, but he does have a poor record of staying healthy and I don’t want to miss out on Upton because of the potential of a health-risk prospect. Despite giving up so many good pitching prospects, the Yankees would still have solid arms in Adam Warren, Jose Ramires, and Graham Stoneburner. Plus, we would still have Austin Romine, who I liken to Kurt Suzuki, and Gary Sanchez. Sanchez may be years away, but he is Montero 2.0 and could make us forget Jesus Montero, even if Montero goes onto a stellar career himself.

So if I’m the Yankees, I would seriously look into Justin Upton. What other team should get in on Upton? The Washington Nationals.

It’s time for winning baseball to return to the nation’s capital. They have a growing core in Stephen Strasburg, Ryan Zimmerman, and Bryce Harper. Trading for Justin Upton would give the team a dynamic group of superstars to build around. Zimmerman is arguably the best third baseman in the game. Upton and Strasburg could become the best in the game at what they do. Many think Harper is a prodigy. Having all four superstars on one team would be insane. The Miami Heat of baseball. Plus, they have the pieces to get a deal done. Derek Norris, Jordan Zimmerman, Ross Detwiler, Michael Burgess, Ian Desmond, Drew Storen, and so on. Let Arizona pick from anybody in the organization besides their current big three. I really hope Washington is one of the teams getting serious.

The final question is why is Arizona trading Upton? To be honest, I don’t know. He is the face of franchise and while he would bring back a lot of great prospect, why not just take the production he will give you for a well below market value contract? It’s not like Arizona is a shitty team. In the NL West they could easily compete sometime soon. Moreover, while he should fetch the equivalent of $100mil in value, I don’t think Arizona will get that much in actuality, so I think they will be ripped off. I would keep him, but I don’t know what direction Ken Towers want to take the franchise. So we’ll see how this plays out.

It should be fun.

Top 10 players you would build a franchise with

Its based on position, age, and salary. These things are huge when wanting to build a franchise around one player. So here we go:

10. Tommy Hanson – Atlanta Braves

Position : Pitcher
Age : 23
2010 Salary : 435k

Hanson is a great young talented pitcher. The Braves will have one of the better rotations in the future because of Hanson and Jair. He had a great rookie year posting a 2.89 ERA and a 3.50 FIP. He was a bit lucky. He even had a 80.3 LOB%. Hanson had a 1.18 WHIP. In 127 innings pitched he has a 2.6 WAR. Hes the real deal people.

9. Matt Wieters – Baltimore Orioles

Position : Catcher
Age : 23
2010 Salary : 400k

Before taking a major league at bat Wieters was described as Joe Mauer with power. I could see him making some noise in the next few years. The Orioles filled a vital position with him and he should be signed to a new deal this off-season. Wieters first season in the show would be a success in my eyes. He had a .340 OBP, .404 SLG, and a .324 wOBA. Not bad for a rookie. He also had a 1.3 WAR in 96 games. A young power hitter like Wieters will strikeout a lot, but he is the catcher of the future. Mauer and Wieters can possibly be battling for the best catcher title in the future.

8. Zack Greinke – Kansas City Royals
Position : Pitcher
Age : 26
2010 Salary : 7.5 million

Greinke came out of no where in 2009 to win the AL Cy Young award. KC has him for two more years after 2010. His 9.4 WAR led pitchers. You have to be simply amazing to win 16 games with the Royals run support. He wasn’t great until 2009, but many people expect big things from him. Including myself. In 09′ he had a 2.16 ERA and a 2.33 FIP. His LOB% was 79.3%. That is just crazy good. To have anything near 80% is great. His WHIP was 1.07. Greinke also ate innings up. Almost 230 total innings pitched in those he had 242 strikeouts. He could be a key piece to a contender in a two years.

7. Matt Kemp – Los Angeles Dodgers

Position : CF
Age : 25
2010 Salary : 4 million

The future of the Dodgers is Matthew Kemp. Like Lincecum, Kemp avoided arbitration by signing a two-year deal. Not too bad for the Dodgers either 2010 4 million and 2011 6.95 million. Kemp is known for his hitting, but I hope he will become a better fielder. In 2009 he had a 2.9 UZR, but in 2010 he already has a -11.3. I’m positive its just him taking terrible routes to the ball. For Kemp’s sake he hopes he can change that so hes not the next Ryan Braun.

.347/.485/.360

Plus his 5.0 WAR last year don’t look too shabby either.

6. Troy Tulowitzki – Colorado Rockies

Position : SS
Age : 25
2010 Salary : 3.5 million

Another young star locked up for a long time with a solid deal for the organization. Hes with the Rockies until 2014. Tulo’s contract don’t hit over 5.5 million until 2012. Colorado has a gem here in Tulowitzki. He plays shortstop good, and hits like a mad man. I’d consider him the second or third best shortstop in the league behind Hanley. A career .355/.471/.354 OBP/SLG/wOBA. He got to learn to not strikeout so much, but as one of those rare power hitting shortstops I guess the 19.7 K% comes with it. Tulo’s career UZR is 10.4. His value is high with a 5.5 WAR a season ago. Tulo is a favorite of mine and wouldn’t mind having a great hitter and good fielder in return for this amount of dough.

5. Tim Lincecum – Francisco Giants
Position : Pitcher
Age : 25
2010 Salary : 8 million

Lincecum is on pace to become one of the greatest pitchers the game has ever seen barring injury. He already has two Cy Young awards under his belt in four seasons as a starter. The Freak avoided arbitration by signing a two year deal for 8 million in 2010 and 13 million in 2011. Thats a ton of weed! Joking a side his stats are unbelievable. His ERA is 2.82 and his FIP is 2.71. Meaning his ERA is right around where he is supposed to be. His 75.5 LOB% is slightly above average. Lincecum also knows how to eat innings and strike people out. In 641 innings over four seasons he struck out 732 batters. Here are some other stats to check out.

WHIP – 1.13
tERA – 2.06
WAR – 20.8

His WAR last season was 8.2 tied for the second most among pitchers. I’d love to have this guy in my staff for years to come.

4. Justin Upton – Arizona Diamondbacks

Position : RF
Age : 22
2010 Salary : 500k

The Diamondbacks are getting a real steal here. They aren’t paying him a whole lot until I’d say 2013 where hes getting 9.75 million. He is locked in from 2010-2015. I see a great career ahead of Upton. His stat line goes…

.348/.478/.355

And you can only see this 22 year old right fielder can only get better. His WAR last season was 4. Upton is also a great defense. His UZR was 8.5 and his UZR/150 was 9.0. He figured something out last year because there was a dramatic increase in his defensive numbers from 08-09. In a small sample size this year it seems he will be even better this year. A good young all-round player, and cheap too!

3. Joe Mauer – Minnesota Twins

Position : Catcher
Age : 27
2010 Salary : 12.5 million

Mauer is pretty expensive and after this season he’ll be getting 23 million annually until 2018. But Mauer will be much worth it. He is the best catcher in the game. Probably the second most valuable position in the MLB. His hitting numbers are crazy. Mauer’s career numbers look like this.

.408/.484/.384

These are crazy numbers since his rookie season in 2004. His career WAR is 28.7 but I believe we haven’t even seen Mauer’s peak. His MVP season is just the beginning of great seasons to come. If you were starting a franchise I couldn’t say you were wrong spending a ton of money on this guy. He had 8 WAR season just by hitting because catchers do not have a defensive metric. Indicating it would be even higher. Mauer also does not strike out a lot by seeing his 11.4 K%. Get ready to pay some incentives because this guy will be winning a few MVP’s in the next 10 years.

2. Hanley Ramirez – Florida Marlins

Position : SS
Age : 26
2010 Salary : 7 million

Hanley is pretty costly, but is an amazing talent at one of the more valuable positions in the MLB. I’d say shortstop is the #1 most valuable position in baseball. He is going to be a Marlin until 2014 unless trade. Ramirez finished 7th in WAR last season with a 7.1 WAR. Hanley can straight up rake though. In his 5 years in the majors he posted a .387/.530/.397 (OBP/SLG/wOBA) Like Longoria, Ramirez strikes out a bit, but not as much. He has a career 18.2 K%. So far through this season (small sample size) he has a 12.6%. So it might seem he will strike out less this year. His career BB% is 9.6. It should get higher, but he hits so well his OBP could be .400+ again this year. Hanley isn’t the greatest field either. He only had 1 season (not including his two games in 2005) where he had a positive UZR. Ramirez is such a great hitter though he don’t need his glove too produce.
1. Evan Longoria – Tampa Bay Rays

Position : 3B
Age : 24
2010 Salary : 950k

Longoria is the best option when it comes down to age, position and salary. He is only 24 years old and is the second best third basemen in the major leagues. Could be argued as the first best. The Rays are getting a really great deal with Longoria. He isn’t reaching the million dollar mark until next season, and is in his 2nd season of his 6 year deal. He was also had a top 10 WAR for batters last year with a 7.2 WAR. Longo is a very productive player here is his OBP/SLG/wOBA in his very short career. .359/.536/.381. It shows he gets on base. His BB% is 10%. Like other young power hitters his K% is in the mid 20’s. According to UZR (18.1) and UZR/150 (18.5) he is the best fielding third basemen in the MLB. In conclusion Evan can do it all. I expect his K% to go down as he becomes more experienced.

Diamondbacks lock up Justin Upton

Today the D-Backs signed Justin Upton to a six year deal worth $51.25mil. With the deal the D-Backs bought out four arbitration years and two years of free agency. And in doing so, they will save themselves some money.

Buying out arbitration and free agency years of young players is a continuing phase in MLB and for good reason. It means teams can keep talented players under team control for longer and at a good price. Arizona is doing no different with the deal.

The D-Backs will be getting six years of one of the best, young players in baseball for cheap. He’ll average just under $9mil per year over the six years, which is obviously good value. When Upton would have reached arbitration, he surely would have commanded more than $9mil, especially come his last couple seasons of arbitration. Even if Upton makes as much in 2011 and 2012 through the deal as he would have in arbitration, the true savings will be the free agency years, when Upton could have been given a superstar type deal. Upton projects to be a 5+ WAR player as soon as 2010.  So the D-Backs will be saving cash and making sure one of baseballs brightest stars remains in the desert.

Now was also the right time to make the deal. People having been raving about him ever since he became a pro, and in 2009 he put up his first good season. Upton is a prime candidate to break out into a perennial All-Star within the next two seasons. If the D-Backs had waited another season or two to sign him long term, they would have waited too long and he would have commanded a higher annual salary. By inking him to the deal now, they were able to spend less money.

As for Upton, the deal makes sense. He’ll be making over $50mil during his mid twenty’s. How many of you wish that was your salary? Sure it’s a discount for his true value, but he has security now. Moreover, the contract will expire when he is 28. Upton will enter free agency in the prime of his career with the opportunity to make $100mil+.

Six years from now Upton could and most likely will be one of the best players in all of baseball. All-Star appearances, Silver Sluggers, some Golden Gloves, and possibly an MVP award will be in his future. He is the type of player teams dream about having. Well the the D-Backs have him for the next six years at a good price. Upton has financial security and the chance to cash in big again come 2016. Win-win.

4PARL end of season awards

It’s that time of the year again where people start mentioning their official votes for MLB season awards. If we had a vote, this is how it’d go down:

AL MVP:

Disco- Joe Mauer

Bballer- Zack Greinke

Trekker- Joe Mauer

Twaco- Joe Mauer

NL MVP:

Disco- Albert Pujols

Bballer- Albert Pujols

Trekker- Albert Pujols

Twaco- Albert Pujols

AL Cy Young:

Disco- Zack Greinke

Bballer- Zack Greinke

Trekker- Zack Greinke

Twaco- Zack Greinke

NL Cy Young:

Disco- Tim Lincecum

Bballer- Tim Lincecum

Trekker- Chris Carpenter

Twaco- Tim Lincecum

AL Rookie of Year:

Disco- Brett Anderson

Bballer- Elvis Andrus

Trekker- Jeff Niemann

Twaco- Brett Anderson

NL Rookie of Year:

Disco- Andrew McCutchen

Bballer- Garret Jones

Trekker- Andrew McCutchen

Twaco- Andrew McCutchen

AL DHL Delivery Man of Year:

Disco- Mariano Rivera

Bballer- Andrew Bailey

Trekker- Mariano Rivera

Twaco- Mariano Rivera

NL DHL Delivery Man of Year:

Disco- Jon Broxton

Bballer- Jon Broxton

Trekker- Jon Broxton

Twaco- Jon Broxton

Disco’s Silver Sluggers:

C- Joe Mauer; Brian McCann

1b- Miguel Cabrera; Albert Pujols

2b- Ben Zobrist; Chase Utley

3b- Alex Rodriguez; Pablo Sandoval

SS- Derek Jeter; Hanley Ramirez

OF- Jason Bay, JD Drew, Shin-soo Choo; Ryan Braun, Adam Dunn, Justin Upton

DH- Adam Lind

*Kevin Youkilis deserves props. He split between 1b/3b so I didn’t give him the benefit at 1b or 3b.

Bballer’s Silver Sluggers:

C- Joe Mauer; Brian McCann

1b- Miguel Cabrera; Albert Pujols

2b- Ben Zobrist; Chase Utley

3b- Kevin Youkilis; Ryan Zimmerman

SS- Derek Jeter; Hanley Ramirez

OF- Jason Bay, JD Drew, Adam Lind; Justin Upton, Jayson Werth, Ryan Braun

DH- Hideki Matsui

Trekker’s Silver Sluggers:

C- Joe Mauer; Brian McCann

1b- Miguel Cabrera; Albert Pujols

2b- Ben Zobrist; Chase Utley

3b- Alex Rodriguez; Pablo Sandoval

SS- Derek Jeter; Hanley Ramirez

OF- Jason Bay, Adam Lind, Shin-Soo Choo; Justin Upton, Adam Dunn, Ryan Braun

DH- Jason Kubel

Twaco’s Silver Sluggers:

C- Joe Mauer; Brian McCann

1b- Kevin Youkilis; Albert Pujols

2b- Ben Zobrist; Chase Utley

3B- Alex Rodriguez; Pablo Sandoval

SS- Derek Jeter; Hanley Ramirez

OF- Jason Bay, Adam Lind, JD Drew; Justin Upton, Ryan Braun, Adam Dunn

DH- Hideki Matsui

Disco’s Gold Gloves:

C- Kurt Suzuki; Yadier Molina

1b- Mark Teixeira; James Loney

2b- Chase Utley; Dustin Pedroia

3B- Evan Longoria; Ryan Zimmerman

SS- Elvis Andrus; Troy Tulowitzki

OF- Franklin Guitierez, Ryan Sweeney, David DeJesus; Nyjer Morgan, Mike Cameron, Randy Winn

Bballer’s Gold Glovers:

C- Joe Mauer; Yadier Molina

1b- Kevin Youkilis; Adrian Gonzalez

2b- Placido Polanco; Chase Utley

3b- Evan Longoria; Ryan Zimmerman

SS- Jason Bartlett; JJ Hardy

OF- Franklin Guitierez, Carl Crawford, BJ Upton; Mike Cameron, Colby Rasmus, Raul Ibanez

Trekker’s Gold Glovers:

C- Joe Mauer; Yadier Molina

1b- Mark Teixeira; Adrian Gonzalez

2b- Dustin Pedroia; Chase Utley

3b- Evan Longoria; Ryan Zimmerman

SS- Elvis Andrus; Rafael Furcal

OF- Ichiro, Franklin Guitierez, Carl Crawford; Nyjer Morgan, Mike Cameron, Colby Rasmus

Twaco’s Gold Glovers:

C- Joe Mauer; Yadier Molina

1b- Mark Teixeira; Albert Pujols

2b- Dustin Pedroia; Chase Utley

3B- Evan Longoria; Ryan Zimmerman

SS- Elvis Andrus; Rafael Furcal

OF- Nelson Cruz, Franklin Guitierez, David DeJesus; Justin Upton, Mike Cameron, Raul Ibanez