Posted tagged ‘Colby Rasmus’

First big trade of trading season

July 27, 2011

In pretty big news this early afternoon, the Toronto Blue Jays traded Jason Frasor and Zach Stewart to the Chicago White Sox for Edwin Jackson and Mark Teahen. From there the Blue Jays will trade Edwin Jackson, Octavio Dotel, and Mark Rzepczynski to the St. Louis Cardinals for Colby Rasmus. Wowzers. So let’s break this down.

St. Louis gets:

BUT…as of now both Edwin Jackson and Dotel are Type B free agents. So if St. Louis lets them go, they get an additional $5mil in value, bringing their net value return to $7.31mil. However, they did trade Colby Rasmus.

So the Cardinals lose about double the value they gain. For them, Rasmus figures to be worth about $21-$22mil, but they only get about $10mil of value in return through two rentals, and a middling relief pitcher. A dumb, dumb trade for the Cardinals, unless they truly believe whoever they pick with their presumed compensation picks will turn out better than Rasmus- a long shot bet to make.

Also, for 2012-2014 I projected Rasmus would accumulate about 11 WAR and be worth around $52mil while being paid around $31mil in arbitration.

Now, let’s look at the Jays. We know they are getting about $21-$22mil of value in Rasmus, but what about what they traded away.

So here we see they gave away about $14.5mil in value, mainly because of top pitching prospect Zach Stewart. But, both Dotel and Frasor are type B FAs, so add about $5mil to that. In the end, the Jays come out slightly in the black, and get a young, good center fielder who is under team control for another three seasons. The only person they might miss is Stewart- when that’s the case, it’s a good deal.

Time to see how Chicago did

Nice, so they get about $16mil in value because of prospect Zach Stewart. Also, I have his value at $15.9mil because according to Victor Wang, a top 26-50 pitching prospect is worth that much. I know he has 3 ML starts already, but for this sake I am treating like a prospect still.



So the Sox really are getting a steal here. They get $16mil in value, when they should have gotten -$3mil in value because that’s what they are giving up. Mark Teahen is so bad that just by giving him up, they shouldn’t expect anything in return. But instead¬† they get Stewart- not bad. So it essentially comes down to Jackson v. Stewart. Jackson has done well in Chicago, but for them they’d rather go with the cheap, younger Stewart over the proven commodity. Can’t blame them.

So in the end, I like the deal for Toronto and Chicago. In the short-run, Jackson might help St. Louis win the division more in 2011 than Rasmus, but down the line it’s a terrible deal for them.

UPDATE: Apparently Trevor Miller, Brian Tallet, and PJ Walters are also in the deal going from the Cardinals to the Blue Jays, with Miller then going to Chicago. Corey Patterson is going to the Cardinals with three PTBNL. That doesn’t change much. The most important aspects of the trades are Stewart to Chicago, Rasmus to Toronto, and Jackson to St. Louis. Everyone else is a filler pretty much. I mean, if the PTBNL are nice prospects than it will be a decent deal for St. Louis, but that’s probably not the case.

The Cardinals iz dumb

September 5, 2010

Tony LaRussa didn’t play Colby Rasmus everyday, even though Rasmus is an up and coming star who was having an excellent season. Now Rasmus wants out of St. Louis, and Albert Pujols does as well. What a mess.

I don’t know what has gone on behind the scenes, but it looks like LaRussa let a personal disagreement dictate playing time. Rasmus had a 2.3 WAR as a rookie and was on his way to an even better season, until LaRussa significantly reduced his playing time. Why? Well, I can’t say there is a good reason. He has a 128 wRC+ for a center fielder, with okay defense. But for some reason LaRussa stopped playing him everyday.

The end result is Rasmus wants out and a trade seems like the only answer to the fued.

Way to go, St. Louis. Maybe Rasmus is being a little immature, but he just wants to play because he knows he’s one of the best players you have. Now you will be losing a guy who is emerging as one of the best center fielder’s in baseball. Plus, you lose leverage you have in a trade because other teams know you have no other options at this point.

I know we have a full outfield, but I wouldn’t mind seeing Colby Rasmus in pinstripes. But he deserves better and I hope he is traded to a team that will respect his talents.

Talking about Colby Rasmus

July 8, 2010

The 2005 draft class has become the gold standard of which to compare future draft classes to. That mega draft class has already seen Justin Upton, Alex Gordon, Ryan Zimmerman, Ryan Braun, Ricky Romero, Mike Pelfrey, Andrew McCutchen, Jay Bruce,¬† Jacoby Ellsbury, Matt Garza and Clay Buchholz emerge as budding stars or solid ML starters- and that’s just the first round and supplemental first round. It’s time to add another star to that list though- Colby Rasmus.

In 2007, Rasmus had 556 PA at AA Springfield. That season Colby hit .275/.381/.551/.414/152 with a 12.6 BB%, 22.9 K%, .275 ISO, .300 BABIP, and 23.2 LD%*. As a result, Baseball America ranked him as the number five prospect in baseball entering the 2008 season. AAA was not kind to Rasmus, however. Gathering 387 PA he hit .251/.346/.396/.335/92 with a 12.7 BB%, 21.8 K%, .145 ISO, .287 BABIP, and 15.5 LD%. The average line in the PCL from 2007-2009 was .276/.342/.433 and the PCL is an offensive league. So Rasmus really did not live up to his hype, let alone league averages. So what happened?

*LD% for minor league numbers taken from statcorner. Everything else is from FG.

Well, one good sign was that his BB% stayed around a solid 12% and while high, his K% did not get worse from 2007 to 2008. His BABIP did not drop significantly as well. What stands out is the loss in power as his ISO fell from .275 to .145. That is a HUGE drop. The reason looks to be his decreased LD%. It was 23.2% in 2007 which is really good, but 15.5% is pretty bad. His FB% remained the same in the two seasons, but his HR/FB% dropped from 11% to 6.5%. So his dip in numbers was due to a lack of hard hit balls. BUT WAIT! In 2008 he had a serious knee injury that sidelined him for a month. Legs are vital for driving the ball and hitting for power, so it is likely his injuries are the cause for the decline.

Despite his less than stellar 2008 campaign, Baseball America moved him up their prospect board in 2009 to the third best prospect in baseball. The Cardinals also moved him up to the big leagues. In 520 PA, he hit .251/.307/.407/.311/91. Ouch. His BB% fell to 6.9%, which is below league average, and his K% stayed consistent with his minor league numbers. His BABIP was .282, not far off his minor league numbers, so bad luck wasn’t to blame. He sported a solid LD% of 19.6% and his HR/FB was an okay 9.4%. It looks like his biggest problem was discipline. His BB rate dropped significantly from what it had been in the minors and he had trouble making contact on pitches outside the zone. However, Rasmus was a solid player because of his defense. His DRS in 945 centerfield innings was +4 and his UZR was 9.1. As a result, his WAR was 2.3.

Well halfway through 2010, Rasmus already has a 2.2 WAR. How so? He finally found the power stroke scouts raved about when he was in the minors. In 289 PA, he is hitting .276/.366/.540/.387/145. Not bad for a center fielder. His BB% is back up to 12.1% and his HR/FB% is 18.6%, resulting in an ISO of .264. He is also making more contact on those pitches outside the zone. Looking at statcorners park-adjusted wOBA, Rasmus has a .402 mark. Amazing. He is a 23 year old center fielder. With these offensive numbers. Kid is a stud. For the rest of 2010, he is projected to “only” .270/.338/.437/.344. Not bad, but considering the adjustments he’s made, I think he’s for real. He was supposed to hit like this, but his development stalled in AAA with injuries. So he wasn’t quite ready for prime time in 2009. But after a year of development in the majors, it appears Rasmus is back on track. I personally believes his rest of season projections regress him to the league average too much.

As for defense, he is good. Scouts touted his strong arm and good in range. As noted above, in 2009 he was solid with the glove, but 945 innings is a SSS. In another SSS in 2010, he has been below average with a -2 DRS and -5.2 UZR in 609 innings in center. In his career he has a sample size of 1555 innings where his DRS is 2 and his UZR is 3.9. I’d say he is still a pretty good fielder.

The Cardinals have a young center fielder who can hit and field under team controlfor the next four seasons. Yeah, talk about value. And Rasmus could emerge as one of the best center fielders in all of baseball.

4PARL end of season awards

October 8, 2009

It’s that time of the year again where people start mentioning their official votes for MLB season awards. If we had a vote, this is how it’d go down:

AL MVP:

Disco- Joe Mauer

Bballer- Zack Greinke

Trekker- Joe Mauer

Twaco- Joe Mauer

NL MVP:

Disco- Albert Pujols

Bballer- Albert Pujols

Trekker- Albert Pujols

Twaco- Albert Pujols

AL Cy Young:

Disco- Zack Greinke

Bballer- Zack Greinke

Trekker- Zack Greinke

Twaco- Zack Greinke

NL Cy Young:

Disco- Tim Lincecum

Bballer- Tim Lincecum

Trekker- Chris Carpenter

Twaco- Tim Lincecum

AL Rookie of Year:

Disco- Brett Anderson

Bballer- Elvis Andrus

Trekker- Jeff Niemann

Twaco- Brett Anderson

NL Rookie of Year:

Disco- Andrew McCutchen

Bballer- Garret Jones

Trekker- Andrew McCutchen

Twaco- Andrew McCutchen

AL DHL Delivery Man of Year:

Disco- Mariano Rivera

Bballer- Andrew Bailey

Trekker- Mariano Rivera

Twaco- Mariano Rivera

NL DHL Delivery Man of Year:

Disco- Jon Broxton

Bballer- Jon Broxton

Trekker- Jon Broxton

Twaco- Jon Broxton

Disco’s Silver Sluggers:

C- Joe Mauer; Brian McCann

1b- Miguel Cabrera; Albert Pujols

2b- Ben Zobrist; Chase Utley

3b- Alex Rodriguez; Pablo Sandoval

SS- Derek Jeter; Hanley Ramirez

OF- Jason Bay, JD Drew, Shin-soo Choo; Ryan Braun, Adam Dunn, Justin Upton

DH- Adam Lind

*Kevin Youkilis deserves props. He split between 1b/3b so I didn’t give him the benefit at 1b or 3b.

Bballer’s Silver Sluggers:

C- Joe Mauer; Brian McCann

1b- Miguel Cabrera; Albert Pujols

2b- Ben Zobrist; Chase Utley

3b- Kevin Youkilis; Ryan Zimmerman

SS- Derek Jeter; Hanley Ramirez

OF- Jason Bay, JD Drew, Adam Lind; Justin Upton, Jayson Werth, Ryan Braun

DH- Hideki Matsui

Trekker’s Silver Sluggers:

C- Joe Mauer; Brian McCann

1b- Miguel Cabrera; Albert Pujols

2b- Ben Zobrist; Chase Utley

3b- Alex Rodriguez; Pablo Sandoval

SS- Derek Jeter; Hanley Ramirez

OF- Jason Bay, Adam Lind, Shin-Soo Choo; Justin Upton, Adam Dunn, Ryan Braun

DH- Jason Kubel

Twaco’s Silver Sluggers:

C- Joe Mauer; Brian McCann

1b- Kevin Youkilis; Albert Pujols

2b- Ben Zobrist; Chase Utley

3B- Alex Rodriguez; Pablo Sandoval

SS- Derek Jeter; Hanley Ramirez

OF- Jason Bay, Adam Lind, JD Drew; Justin Upton, Ryan Braun, Adam Dunn

DH- Hideki Matsui

Disco’s Gold Gloves:

C- Kurt Suzuki; Yadier Molina

1b- Mark Teixeira; James Loney

2b- Chase Utley; Dustin Pedroia

3B- Evan Longoria; Ryan Zimmerman

SS- Elvis Andrus; Troy Tulowitzki

OF- Franklin Guitierez, Ryan Sweeney, David DeJesus; Nyjer Morgan, Mike Cameron, Randy Winn

Bballer’s Gold Glovers:

C- Joe Mauer; Yadier Molina

1b- Kevin Youkilis; Adrian Gonzalez

2b- Placido Polanco; Chase Utley

3b- Evan Longoria; Ryan Zimmerman

SS- Jason Bartlett; JJ Hardy

OF- Franklin Guitierez, Carl Crawford, BJ Upton; Mike Cameron, Colby Rasmus, Raul Ibanez

Trekker’s Gold Glovers:

C- Joe Mauer; Yadier Molina

1b- Mark Teixeira; Adrian Gonzalez

2b- Dustin Pedroia; Chase Utley

3b- Evan Longoria; Ryan Zimmerman

SS- Elvis Andrus; Rafael Furcal

OF- Ichiro, Franklin Guitierez, Carl Crawford; Nyjer Morgan, Mike Cameron, Colby Rasmus

Twaco’s Gold Glovers:

C- Joe Mauer; Yadier Molina

1b- Mark Teixeira; Albert Pujols

2b- Dustin Pedroia; Chase Utley

3B- Evan Longoria; Ryan Zimmerman

SS- Elvis Andrus; Rafael Furcal

OF- Nelson Cruz, Franklin Guitierez, David DeJesus; Justin Upton, Mike Cameron, Raul Ibanez